Iowa and Ohio

[Roll Roons]

Two former swing states that shifted hard to the right in 2016 and barely budged in 2020. But of course, no political trend is ever really permanent. Which one could come back to Democrats sooner?

[Not Me, Us]

Ohio has much more of an urban base than Iowa, so I'd say Ohio. Iowa is much too rural and white to trend back to Democrats any time soon.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Ohio has been talked about as likely to shift Democrat for 10 years and more because of Colombus and yet in that time it has only become more Republican because of other parts of the state. That said I would tend to agree that it is most likely though at the same time Iowa can be erratic and thus could easily surprise.

[Typhoon2000]

Both are unlikely to flip anytime soon but probably Ohio.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Iowa could get a lot closer if the next Republican administration starts another idiotic series of trade wars, but doesn’t spend as much energy and money as Trump did bailing farms out.

Don’t really see any other situation that makes these two close again in the near future.

[I’m not Stu]

Will these states largely be static in the near future?

[Tekken_Guy]

Tough to say. Ohio is way more urbanized but its rurals are considerably more Republican that Iowa’s.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't flipping Mahoning County like they did with Trump, Rs overperformed in Ohio with Trump on ballot.

Reynolds, Grassley family and Ernst are unbearable in IA

But, OH hasn't flipped with out IA since 1976, when Carter won OH instead of IA, hopefully that trend will end in 2022/2024

If Grassley retires, IA Senate can be a Tossup even with Pat Grassley

[jamestroll]

It looks like Iowa threads have surpassed Virginia threads.

[pbrower2a]

Ohio has been talked about as likely to shift Democrat for 10 years and more because of Colombus and yet in that time it has only become more Republican because of other parts of the state. That said I would tend to agree that it is most likely though at the same time Iowa can be erratic and thus could easily surprise.

The growth of the Democratic Party in Greater Columbus is a wash because most of the new Democrats in Greater Columbus have moved from elsewhere in Ohio. If anything it is the Democrats from places like Greater Cleveland, Akron-Canton, Cincinnati, Dayton, Springfield, and Toledo to Florida, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia who are the "disappearing" Ohio Democrats.

[Biden his time]

I think Iowa because of the new Selzer poll

Selzer is the best pollster in the business.

[David Hume]

Tough to say. Ohio is way more urbanized but its rurals are considerably more Republican that Iowa’s.

Why its rurals are considerably more Republican that Iowa’s? If not for trade war.

[Tekken_Guy]

Tough to say. Ohio is way more urbanized but its rurals are considerably more Republican that Iowa’s.

Why its rurals are considerably more Republican that Iowa’s? If not for trade war.

Much more agriculture-oriented. Also the “driftless” area isn’t too Republican.