WI-PPP: Johnson with a 35/48 approval rating

[BudgieForce]

Interesting that even these dudes can't give better numbers to Evers/Biden. (Also it seems that the poll was done for a progressive third group and these polls tend to be much more dem friendly than the polls they are doing for themselves).

If that's how you want to spin this.

Regardless, the crosstabs look fine. I'm also interested to see how pollsters fare without Trump on the ballot.

[BudgieForce]

Interesting that even these dudes can't give better numbers to Evers/Biden. (Also it seems that the poll was done for a progressive third group and these polls tend to be much more dem friendly than the polls they are doing for themselves).

If that's how you want to spin this.

Regardless, the crosstabs look fine. I'm also interested to see how pollsters fare without Trump on the ballot.

Which crosstabs ? There is nothing, that should make you even more sceptic about this poll.

How those polled voted in 2020 and the party breakdown being slightly more Republican than Democrat.

[BudgieForce]

....this is a sleazy trick they use to make their polls seem fair.....

Why do I even bother?

[BudgieForce]

I don't trust PPP.

They were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2012. But the Trump years have not been kind to them.

[BudgieForce]

....this is a sleazy trick they use to make their polls seem fair.....

Why do I even bother?

Because we should learn from our mistakes of mindlessly believing polling outlets with a track record of deception.

That's why we have aggregates.

Regardless, out right dismissing a poll isn't any better than mindlessly believing it or worse yet, unskewing it.

[BudgieForce]

They were one of the most accurate pollsters in 2012. But the Trump years have not been kind to them.

I’m pretty sure their Clinton +7/Feingold +5 (Oct. 31 - Nov. 1, 2016), Clinton +12/Feingold +6 (Oct. 18-19, 2016), and Walker +1 (Oct. 28-30, 2014) WI polls don’t fall into the Trump years, and they underestimated Republicans in other states as well in 2014, often by substantial margins. When you consistently overestimate D strength, it’s no surprise that you’ll end up being the 'gold standard' in the one election in which Democrats actually do outperform expectations across the board (2012). That said, they were pretty good in 2010 and actually overstated R strength a little in the Upper Midwest that year, it’s just that their performance since 2013 (which is also when they started aligning themselves more and more with D clients, if I’m not mistaken) has been less than stellar.

People would do well to pay less attention to polling in general, regardless of the state/topline. It’s tempting not to (I admittedly got a little excited about those Evers numbers as well), but at the end of the day, betting on fundamentals is probably the better choice. My prediction is that this seat will end up being 1-2%-points more R than the PA race again (in line with recent Senate + House Popular vote results in those two states).

Semantically, I included 2016 as a Trump year. But yeah, I don't disagree with anything you said.