MO - Remington/Missouri Scout: Blunt +10, Greitens +8 over Sifton

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://moscout.com/s/MOSCOUT-Statewide-Public-Opinion-Deck-021921.pptx

February 17-18
954 likely voters
MoE: 3%

Blunt 50%
Sifton 40%
Undecided 10%

Greitens 49%
Sifton 41%
Undecided 10%

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R, especially given that the polls systematically underestimate the GOP.

[VAR]

LOL, this is super safe R.

Biden approval: 43/53 (-10)
Parson approval: 50/38 (+12)

[Frenchrepublican]

Safe R, especially given that the polls systematically underestimate the GOP.

It seems that the people at Remington, after consistently oversampling democrats for a few cycles, are now using more conservative / R leaning samples than in the past, so the margin of error should be less important than in 2016/2018/2020.


Still it will be funny to see pundits overexagerating the competitiveness of this race only to see Blunt crushing his dem opponent by a 56/41 margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Sifton is down only 10 pts this early I will gladly take this.

This goes to show you that 2022 may not be an R wave

Blunt was never gonna win by a landslide

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

LOL, this is super safe R.

Biden approval: 43/53 (-10)
Parson approval: 50/38 (+12)

Safe R for now, but there might be a path if Greitens wins the primary and Kander enters upon Greitens picking up steam. The Republicans would still be heavily favoured and Greitens is unlikely to win the primary to begin with, but the only primary poll suggests he could be a viable challenger (December 2019, Blunt 43-Greitens 32).

It's definitely a primary to watch. The NRSC will want to avoid another Senator as rebellious as Hawley.

[Frenchrepublican]

LOL, this is super safe R.

Biden approval: 43/53 (-10)
Parson approval: 50/38 (+12)

Safe R for now, but there might be a path if Greitens wins the primary and Kander enters upon Greitens picking up steam. The Republicans would still be heavily favoured and Greitens is unlikely to win the primary to begin with, but the only primary poll suggests he could be a viable challenger (December 2019, Blunt 43-Greitens 32).

It's definitely a primary to watch. The NRSC will want to avoid another Senator as rebellious as Hawley.

The problem for Kander is that most of the Trump/Kander voters from 2016 are no longer gettable for a democrat, especially in a federal race happening during a Biden midterm.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

LOL, this is super safe R.

Biden approval: 43/53 (-10)
Parson approval: 50/38 (+12)

Safe R for now, but there might be a path if Greitens wins the primary and Kander enters upon Greitens picking up steam. The Republicans would still be heavily favoured and Greitens is unlikely to win the primary to begin with, but the only primary poll suggests he could be a viable challenger (December 2019, Blunt 43-Greitens 32).

It's definitely a primary to watch. The NRSC will want to avoid another Senator as rebellious as Hawley.

The problem for Kander is that most of the Trump/Kander voters from 2016 are no longer gettable for a democrat, especially in a federal race happening during a Biden midterm.

Lower-turnout midterms may deliver a more ticket-splitting electorate (at the very least, the Senate races will be the primary drivers of turnout as opposed to the presidential race).

With that caveat, I broadly agree. It is why Kander would be DOA against almost any Republican. Greitens, however, was impeached and removed for fairly clear reasons which are likely to be electorally toxic. I don't think the reports would be enough to bring him down if he got through a primary beforehand, but I'm not ruling out that he could suffer a narrow, Roy Moore-style defeat.

[tmthforu94]

Galloway isn't going to run. The most interesting thing here is whether Greitens tries the primary challenge. If he's only running 2 points behind Blunt in GE matchups, though, GOP should be in pretty good shape either way.

[MT Treasurer]

Lower-turnout midterms may deliver a more ticket-splitting electorate (at the very least, the Senate races will be the primary drivers of turnout as opposed to the presidential race).

Not really, the main driver of turnout in a midterm is sentiment toward the current administration in the White House. Kander would have never done as well in a R-leaning midterm election like 2014 as he did in 2016, when his campaign was overshadowed by the presidential race as well as countless other statewide and local races, which made it a lot harder for Blunt (who indeed got caught asleep at the wheel) to retaliate and allowed Kander to escape voter scrutiny in a manner that wouldn’t be replicable in 2022. From Blunt's perspective, Donald 'drain the swamp' Trump was also the worst Republican to lead the ticket in 2016.

Besides, there isn’t much evidence that Greitens would perform substantially worse than Blunt in a general election. If it’s safe R with Blunt (who very much has his own 'electorally toxic' weaknesses), it’ll be Safe R with Greitens (and virtually any other Republican) as well. Yes, Chris Cillizza thinks that this seat is more likely to flip if Blunt retires/loses the primary, but we’re supposed to be smarter than Chris Cillizza.

[Xing]

I don't even know what to say to people who still think MO is winnable for Democrats. It's like those who insist OR isn't Safe D. There's just no convincing someone who still lives in the early 2000s.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't even know what to say to people who still think MO is winnable for Democrats. It's like those who insist OR isn't Safe D. There's just no convincing someone who still lives in the early 2000s.

D's were expected to lose seats but D's have plenty of time to build Sifton up with 21 mnths, McCaskill and Galloway lost due to being females, Sifton can make this competetive.

Xing, as a D you have to be hold. D's weren't expected to win 33 seats in 2018 they were only supposed to win 16

[Hope For A New Era]

Not sure how I feel about Scott Sifton. I'm worried his campaign might be too partisan. He's sort of giving off the energy of one of those people who run super-progressive campaigns in West Virginia "because why not" or something.

He does have a massive pile of endorsements, including Galloway's endorsement, so there might be a bit of a "party unifying behind him" effect in place already. Hopefully they've made the right choice.


More realistically, though - at this point I'm not sure there's anyone who could win this. I guess Jay Nixon and Chris Koster might have a chance, but they could both just as easily be Phil Bredesen 2.0.

Also, Kander will not run. He has said so multiple times, and his podcast is full of soundbites that can be used to attack him (probably in overly dramatic ads that are full of photos of AOC and Nancy Pelosi for no reason).