Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,088
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: February 25, 2021, 01:02:17 PM » |
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He'll do worse than Kemp in a general. It's a Dem midterm and so any types who'd be frothing for Collins over Kemp will be showing up anyway. Collins would lose a handful of incumbent-friendly moderate ATL suburbrons (to these types, Kemp isn't viewed as badly as some might think; compare him to someone like DeSantis who despite having a toxic campaign has largely avoided controversy while in office).
I could see Kemp losing by 1-1.5 points (might be within runoff terrain; the Libertarian average for the past two gubernatorials is 1.66 points) and Collins by like 2. In either case, a higher-than-average Libertarian vote could be present (whether it's Trump rubes protesting against Kemp or suburbrons protesting against Collins).
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