Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Flyersfan232]

https://www.twitter.com/MarianaSeMendes/status/1447860843606122501

Chega joining the eve soon?

[Flyersfan232]

King Juan Carlos not being present I understand, but it's weird Queen Sofia not being present. From what I'm aware she's very popular in Spain. Families, royal or commoner, are complicated.

 Apparently the reason is not giving the impression there's a different treatment for Juan Carlos and Sofia. While the former king is floating in a sort of limbo (neither is prosecuted nor returning to La Zarzuela), the former queen is virtually ostracized in the royal residence.  I don't know if Sofía is still popular, but her relationship with the queen consort Letizia has been strained since years ago.  I gather from the news that Sofia will attend the family celebration, as well as Juan Carlos will be there for a few hours and requested a meeting with his son Felipe. Sofia is pretty accustomed to be rebuffed, on the other hand. She's a very traditional and conservative aristocratic woman who always rejected the idea of divorce, despite the continous unfidelities of Juan Carlos. Their marriage is dead since late 1970s, but Sofia opted to remain as Queen of Spain and support humiliations from her husband. Letizia comes from a normal family and was a succesful professional before marrying Felipe, so she has different ideas about the role of wonen in society and never understood the elder Sofia. It’s notorious that Juan Carlos also hates Letizia and blames her for his disgraces. The Spanish royal family is complicated,  yes

any chance the succession laws are chance to allow full equally when its come for succession like it is for the nobles.

[Flyersfan232]

Junts maiñtains suspense over last minute disagreements with the PSOE, reports El País. Puigdemont and the Junts leadership hold a meeting to decide on investiture agreement. The PP will promote a Senate reform (Feijóo's party has a majority in the Upper House), in order to delay the vote of the amnesty vote. PSOE and ERC will announce their deal this evening with the appearances of Félix Bolaños (PSOE) and Oriol Junqueras (ERC). The PSOE-ERC deal incorporates amnesty law and the transfer of suburban trains to the Catalan government

Live update:

https://elpais.com/espana/2023-11-02/pactos-y-negociaciones-para-la-investidura-de-sanchez-en-directo.html

how long the government last with a pp senate majority?

[Flyersfan232]

As expected, Puigdemont is "stretching the rope" as much as possible and delaying, or rather "derailing", Sanchéz investiture. He now wants a broader amnesty, which from what I understand involves corruption charges, something the PSOE has said it is a "red line".

We'll see how this unfolds.

F**king unbelievable. Catalan nationalists are truly the masters of shooting themselves in the foot.

The exact opposite,  at least from the Junts/Puigdemont perspective. I have made my views on this clique clear already, so I will just restate their view.

Madrid is nothing. Catalonia is everything.  Whether it's just to get power, or whether they actually are determined hardliners,  Junts is the separatist/clean break party.  Some don't think they did anything wrong during the "referendum," and that it's results remain legitimate and Representative.  Far different from ERCs approach. 

To this end, their true position is accelerationism. They haven't exactly been secret about wanting Vox into government,  and restarting the Catalonia fights. Cause Junts wins those fights when it comes to nationalist voters, and they want more nationalists to support separatism.  So PSOE has to offer them a lot to continue legitimizing cooperation within Spain,  what is currently occurring,  and that price very well could just be prohibitively expensive.

So their plan is... to turn Catalonia into Northern Ireland ca. 1970?

I rest my case. Absolute idiocy.

HOpe they enjoy prime Minister Santiago Abascal

[Flyersfan232]

so how much do the right having the senate majority means in terms of psoe governing

[Flyersfan232]

If every vote from separatist parties is needed for the continuum of the government, how long would it last?

Also, could the political right win an absolute majority in the foreseeable future?

If we are pedantic, CC and BNG, both with a single seat each, can be dropped. That being said, BNG won't ask for much (basically more money for Galicia) and CC's support really seems a last ditch effort to keep the money tap flowing but they have no leverage over Sanchez

Realistically it's going to come down to Puigdemont. And the next Catalan election will have a lot to do with how the Spanish government evolves

The separatist parties could further see their support eroded in this way...

OT: if Sanchez managed to cling on, I could foresee a way of Trudeau hanging on after next Canadian election, on the condition of CPC getting less than 170 seats. Negotiations between LPC, NDP and BQ is theoretically easier than that between PSOE and ERC/Junts.

If this is set as precedent, the only way of CPC winning government in next election is them getting an absolute majority of seats.

this government wont last more then 2 years at best