Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Mike88]

What...a...mess of an election.

I will mark on my diary a... December election?

[Zinneke]

I take back what I said, it seems like Rufian is calling for Sanchez and Diaz to just throw money at Catalonia in order to get his votes.

[jaichind]

It seems Sanchez's gamble paid off.  He replicated what Schröder pull off in 2005.

[PSOL]

I take back what I said, it seems like Rufian is calling for Sanchez and Diaz to just throw money at Catalonia in order to get his votes.

what an incredible cuck, hopefully Catalans throw him out of office ASAP.

[jeron]

I take back what I said, it seems like Rufian is calling for Sanchez and Diaz to just throw money at Catalonia in order to get his votes.

Yes, no calls for a referendum. Just money

[jaichind]

I take back what I said, it seems like Rufian is calling for Sanchez and Diaz to just throw money at Catalonia in order to get his votes.

Doing that with PP getting more seats and vote share is bad optics which just means PSOE will get creamed in the next election.

[Zinneke]

I take back what I said, it seems like Rufian is calling for Sanchez and Diaz to just throw money at Catalonia in order to get his votes.

Yes, no calls for a referendum. Just money

The PNVisation of ERC

[DavidB.]

I think that, if the right is really desperate to govern, they could grant all possible privileges to the PNV, perhaps a referendum for more autonomy.

Absolutely impossible. Vox won't accept this.

[Vosem]

EDIT: PSOE/Sumar/ERC/Bildu/PNV/BNG are at 172; PP/Vox/CCA/UPN at 171. (CCA could join either side, for the record.) Right now Junts abstaining would reelect Sanchez. I don't think ERC would truly force new elections at which PP might well win if they can take a course of action which would restore Sanchez -- although I might be wrong, and there probably exist currents within the party which would want this. But such an action wouldn't even be particularly strange from Junts, although it's tough to say that it's guaranteed.

Not very surprising from Rufian, and this probably means they need Puigdemont to merely abstain rather than actually vote for PSOE, which is a much easier lift. But it isn't guaranteed and there's enough out that we might still be wrong.

[Mike88]

With Junts being the tie breaker, a second election is the most likely outcome. I cannot see Junts abstaining in a investiture vote without strong concessions like, Puigdemont being able to walk free in Spanish soil.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

All things being equal, while the left may not have been triumphant tonight it's always good to see the fascist apologizers go down. I Hope Sumar might be able to edge them out, although that looks unlikely, they do appear to be nearly tied.

[Velasco]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

I haven't discounted the fact that Catalonian parties and activists, being deranged and dangerous psychos, could make a grave mistake imperiling an arrangement that has worked surprisingly well for them. I am making an argument that it should be abundantly clear to them that the typical Catalonian-speaking person approves of Pedro Sanchez, abhors the Spanish right and cares about preserving Catalonian autonomy as it exists under the current system. We don't need to debate this: that is the obvious message as sent by Catalonian voters tonight.

I know you love effortless superiority and refuse to debate us plebs who are not in your good books but here goes :  no it isn't because there are many factors as to why the PSC did well and the popularity of Sanchez is not necessarily one of them (the hatred of the Right might be yes, but then that was present the past few elections as well). For example, a huge chunk of refusenik seperatists who would vote for Rufian solely because for years he acted like a troll in the parliament then suddenly became a Sanchez-stan are probably disaffected. THe whole seperatist bloc in Catalonia is going through an acute crisis, the government only hasn't called new elections because they know this type of result could occur, but you simply do not know if the extra PSC seats is a ringing endorsement of Pedro Sanchez. Catalonia has its own political culture and that is a factor as much as what goes on in Moncloa.

The message sent by Catalan voters is that they have lost trust in the separatist parties. We are telling you that in order to regain that trust, they will absolutely attempt to sabotage a PSOE government. Rufian's position within ERC is weakened with this result, there is a faction there that is in favour of not investing Sanchez that will come out strengthened, and Junts is now fully against a PSOE government.

It's undeniable that part of the PSC increase comes from the nationalist camp. Not neccessarily from the most militant and 'hyperventilating' sectors, but not all the ERC loses are gains for abstention. Even though the Catalan society is highly polarized, the pro-independence camp is not monolithic. Also, don't understimate the beneficial effects of the government's policy under Sánchez, in order to pacífy and stabilize Catalonia. There's conflict weariness and many people knew a PP-VOX government would burn everything again. Even the CEO (sociological institute ran by the Catalan government) concedes the PSC is leading vote intention in the eventuality of a new regional election

[BigSerg]

It seems that the PNV has not flatly refused to support the PP. It could be possible that Abascal resigns because of vox's horrible results and they support a Pnv - Pp government without asking for anything in return.

[Logical]

The Quebec law: every failed separatist party will inevitably shift their focus to milking as much money as possible from the central government.

[Mike88]

Junts leader is about to talk. Let's see what she says.

[jeron]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

I haven't discounted the fact that Catalonian parties and activists, being deranged and dangerous psychos, could make a grave mistake imperiling an arrangement that has worked surprisingly well for them. I am making an argument that it should be abundantly clear to them that the typical Catalonian-speaking person approves of Pedro Sanchez, abhors the Spanish right and cares about preserving Catalonian autonomy as it exists under the current system. We don't need to debate this: that is the obvious message as sent by Catalonian voters tonight.

I know you love effortless superiority and refuse to debate us plebs who are not in your good books but here goes :  no it isn't because there are many factors as to why the PSC did well and the popularity of Sanchez is not necessarily one of them (the hatred of the Right might be yes, but then that was present the past few elections as well). For example, a huge chunk of refusenik seperatists who would vote for Rufian solely because for years he acted like a troll in the parliament then suddenly became a Sanchez-stan are probably disaffected. THe whole seperatist bloc in Catalonia is going through an acute crisis, the government only hasn't called new elections because they know this type of result could occur, but you simply do not know if the extra PSC seats is a ringing endorsement of Pedro Sanchez. Catalonia has its own political culture and that is a factor as much as what goes on in Moncloa.

The message sent by Catalan voters is that they have lost trust in the separatist parties. We are telling you that in order to regain that trust, they will absolutely attempt to sabotage a PSOE government. Rufian's position within ERC is weakened with this result, there is a faction there that is in favour of not investing Sanchez that will come out strengthened, and Junts is now fully against a PSOE government.

It's undeniable that part of the PSC increase comes from the nationalist camp. Not neccessarily from the most militant and 'hyperventilating' sectors, but not all the ERC loses are gains for abstention. Even though the Catalan society is highly polarized, the pro-independence camp is not monolithic. Also, don't understimate the beneficial effects of the government's policy under Sánchez, in order to pacífy and stabilize Catalonia. There's conflict weariness and many people knew a PP-VOX government would burn everything again. Even the CEO (sociological institute ran by the Catalan government) concedes the PSC is leading vote intention in the eventuality of a new regional election

Yes, pSC is up almost 300,000 votes in Barcelona province

[Zinneke]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

I haven't discounted the fact that Catalonian parties and activists, being deranged and dangerous psychos, could make a grave mistake imperiling an arrangement that has worked surprisingly well for them. I am making an argument that it should be abundantly clear to them that the typical Catalonian-speaking person approves of Pedro Sanchez, abhors the Spanish right and cares about preserving Catalonian autonomy as it exists under the current system. We don't need to debate this: that is the obvious message as sent by Catalonian voters tonight.

I know you love effortless superiority and refuse to debate us plebs who are not in your good books but here goes :  no it isn't because there are many factors as to why the PSC did well and the popularity of Sanchez is not necessarily one of them (the hatred of the Right might be yes, but then that was present the past few elections as well). For example, a huge chunk of refusenik seperatists who would vote for Rufian solely because for years he acted like a troll in the parliament then suddenly became a Sanchez-stan are probably disaffected. THe whole seperatist bloc in Catalonia is going through an acute crisis, the government only hasn't called new elections because they know this type of result could occur, but you simply do not know if the extra PSC seats is a ringing endorsement of Pedro Sanchez. Catalonia has its own political culture and that is a factor as much as what goes on in Moncloa.

The message sent by Catalan voters is that they have lost trust in the separatist parties. We are telling you that in order to regain that trust, they will absolutely attempt to sabotage a PSOE government. Rufian's position within ERC is weakened with this result, there is a faction there that is in favour of not investing Sanchez that will come out strengthened, and Junts is now fully against a PSOE government.

It's undeniable that part of the PSC increase comes from the nationalist camp. Not neccessarily from the most militant and 'hyperventilating' sectors, but not all the ERC loses are gains for abstention. Even though the Catalan society is highly polarized, the pro-independence camp is not monolithic. Also, don't understimate the beneficial effects of the government's policy under Sánchez, in order to pacífy and stabilize Catalonia. There's conflict weariness and many people knew a PP-VOX government would burn everything again. Even the CEO (sociological institute ran by the Catalan government) concedes the PSC is leading vote intention in the eventuality of a new regional election

I am not denying this (edit : alongside lower turnout). I am saying it is for reasons outside of Sanchez's campaign/popularity.

PSC is seen as more credible due to separatist infighting, and vote weariness or issue salience too (massively helped PSC during Corona elections for example) is a factor.

[Mike88]

Junts leader is about to talk. Let's see what see says.

She just said she will not support Sanchéz, regardless what he gives them.

[PSOL]

An AP government is inevitable, and it seems like it will do without VOX.

[It’s so Joever]

Spain: “Oh no I forgot to do my midterms can I copy yours from last year?”
USA: “Yeah sure thing Mexico, just change the answers a bit”

[BigSerg]

The PNV sounds strangely soft, not even compared to past elections. It should also be remembered that, outside the parties, Urkullu and Feijóo are personal friends. If Abascal gives up any kind of power, I think there is a good chance of another Rajoy.

[Velasco]

It's amazing to discover the discredited Félix Tezanos was more spotted on than Narciso Michavila (GAD3)

As for myself, I went to the beach and walked by the shore on order to calm my anxiety for the results. I didn't watch my cell phone until 21,:40 GMT. This election is crucial for the political future of Spain. A PP-VOX majority could have been the beginning of a reactionary involution with Feijóo making clear overtures to Meloni (via Manfred Weber). The result is complex, but it's a momentary relief.

There's a big difference between the lesser evil and the absolute evil. Therefore I'm a Perra Sánchez,  too ♥

[PSOL]

Hopefully in a few months Sanchez will be a political nonfactor

[Mike88]

98.85% of precincts reporting:

33.0% PP, 136 seats
31.7% PSOE, 122
12.4% Vox, 33
12.3% Sumar, 31

PSOE+Sumar+ERC+Bildu+PNV+BNG = 172
PP+Vox+CC+UPN= 171

Junts = 7

[Zinneke]

It seems like everyone is celebrating.

Except Vox.

Which why everyone is celebrating.