Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Red Velvet]

Spain under the PSOE was able to de-escalate the Catalan independence issue and now Vox will throw all that progress away, all because they want to emulate Franco and ban the Catalan language.

I wonder more how Vox in government will impact the PP reputation for being in a coalition with those hardline extremists. Not that they have any other choice to form a majority though, unless they invited PSOE to be in government lmao. But Spain isn’t Germany.

Still telling how Vox will lose votes now but still get to be in government for the first time ever due to PP’s gains. It helps polarization imo because the more “moderate” people will see them as the same thing as the radical far-right since they’re legitimizing them.

You basically have one center-left and a center-right party that concentrate most of the vote but never enough to get a majority by themselves these days, with more outspoken options in the left (Sumar, ex-Unidas Podemos) and right (Vox) getting significant number of chairs that is necessary for the big two to form a majority even though they low-key hate their more moderate and establishment “party allies” even if they’re the closest ideologically.

I remember Pedro Sanchez had some tension with Unidas Podemos even though they were part of his government, I wonder how will it go with PP/VOX. How much power is PP willing to give to VOX in order to assure governability? I don’t know enough about Spanish politics to have an answer to that.

[It’s so Joever]

While I of course generally am a unionist on the Catalan issue for geopolitical reasons, morally I do think Catalonia has a right to independence if VOX wins. These aren’t good people, they want a genocide of the Catalan people in the same vein as the CCP and the Uyghurs.
I will want Spain to keep the Catalan movements down for practical purposes, but may not be able to help but smile everytime Catalans fight back against their soon to be oppressors.

Of course if PP/VOX gets anywhere close to betraying us on the Russia or China issues, I will fully support Catalan independence movements happily.

Either way I am still praying for a miracle.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

RTVE says that 4,155,000 viewers watched the 'debate a tres' last night on TV, the largest moment being during the beginning of the "pactos" section at 11 PM, with over 4.6 million. Hopefully these people were convinced by Sanchez and Diaz to re-elect the government. Fingers crossed

[Red Velvet]

As someone who lived in Barcelona for 9 months during the period when everything was chaos (2017-2018) regarding the independence movement, I am quite friendly to them! Though I think an united Spain is the best thing for both Catalonia and Spain geopolitically.

I think Spain just needs to be nice with them that the energy for independence dies down. Most people I talked showed resentment to a historical level, mentioning times during Spanish dictatorship where they were mistreated and the Spanish government tried to erase their language. Which is valid resentment to hold tbh.

Though there’s also an elitist element about it being a richer region and having to send money to poorer ones that I simply don’t agree - but that was a less common reason than the historical stuff.

Things obviously died down since I left in 2018, PSOE taking power in 2019 and having a different approach than PP probably had an effect indeed. And that’s because VOX didn’t hold any chairs when I was there and they’re literally the representation of the Franco fascists that ruled Spain during dictatorship.

So yeah, Vox in power would legitimize a lot the Catalan independence movement a lot in my eyes and probably many others.

[BigSerg]

While I of course generally am a unionist on the Catalan issue for geopolitical reasons, morally I do think Catalonia has a right to independence if VOX wins. These aren’t good people, they want a genocide of the Catalan people in the same vein as the CCP and the Uyghurs.
I will want Spain to keep the Catalan movements down for practical purposes, but may not be able to help but smile everytime Catalans fight back against their soon to be oppressors.

Of course if PP/VOX gets anywhere close to betraying us on the Russia or China issues, I will fully support Catalan independence movements happily.

Either way I am still praying for a miracle.

Honestly, how deranged and out of touch with reality do you have to be to say this.

[BigSerg]

As someone who lived in Barcelona for 9 months during the period when everything was chaos (2017-2018) regarding the independence movement, I am quite friendly to them! Though I think an united Spain is the best thing for both Catalonia and Spain geopolitically.

I think Spain just needs to be nice with them that the energy for independence dies down. Most people I talked showed resentment to a historical level, mentioning times during Spanish dictatorship where they were mistreated and the Spanish government tried to erase their language. Which is valid resentment to hold tbh.

Though there’s also an elitist element about it being a richer region and having to send money to poorer ones that I simply don’t agree - but that was a less common reason than the historical stuff.

Things obviously died down since I left in 2018, PSOE taking power in 2019 and having a different approach than PP probably had an effect indeed. And that’s because VOX didn’t hold any chairs when I was there and they’re literally the representation of the Franco fascists that ruled Spain during dictatorship.

So yeah, Vox in power would legitimize a lot the Catalan independence movement a lot in my eyes and probably many others.

Can you stop talking as if the Catalans were a monolithic independence movement? They have literally never been a majority. Ciudadanos was the most voted party and Vox will get 10% of the vote there in these elections.

[It’s so Joever]

While I of course generally am a unionist on the Catalan issue for geopolitical reasons, morally I do think Catalonia has a right to independence if VOX wins. These aren’t good people, they want a genocide of the Catalan people in the same vein as the CCP and the Uyghurs.
I will want Spain to keep the Catalan movements down for practical purposes, but may not be able to help but smile everytime Catalans fight back against their soon to be oppressors.

Of course if PP/VOX gets anywhere close to betraying us on the Russia or China issues, I will fully support Catalan independence movements happily.

Either way I am still praying for a miracle.

Honestly, how deranged and out of touch with reality do you have to be to say this baseless bullsh**t.

Coming from you, that makes me feel more firm in my views.

[BigSerg]

Moreover, these elections became boring with the end of the grain deal. Spain was the biggest parasite of the "Grain deal for poor countries (lmao)" and with it they avoided the inflation levels of other European countries, now that it has collapsed, the fake system they created is going to collapse and it will hurt much more than in other European countries, whoever wins will lose the next elections.

[Velasco]

Last GESOP Australian tracking poll

PP 31 5% 129/133 seats
PSOE 28.5% 107/111 seats
SUMAR 14.0% 36/40 seats
VOX 13.5% 36/40 seats
ERC 2.2% 8/9 seats
JUNTS 1.8% 7/8 seats

Swing with regards previous poll: PP + 0.5%, PSOE +1.0%, SUMAR -0.2%, VOX - 0 8%

Feijóo's blunders, lies and disgusting statements continue.  The bogus man said Yolanda Díaz is a make up expert. The woman replied she's happy to know he's recovered from lumbago and offered a debate on economic issues

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-21/el-periodico-the-adelaide-review-spain-election-polling-laws/102408974

[Red Velvet]

Last GESOP Australian tracking poll

PP 31 5% 129/133 seats
PSOE 28.5% 107/111 seats
SUMAR 14.0% 36/40 seats
VOX 13.5% 36/40 seats
ERC 2.2% 8/9 seats
JUNTS 1.8% 7/8 seats

Swing with regards previous poll: PP + 0.5%, PSOE +1.0%, SUMAR -0.2%, VOX - 0 8%

Feijóo's blunders, lies and disgusting statements continue.  The bogus man said Yolanda Díaz is a make up expert. The woman replied she's happy to know he's recovered from lumbago and offered a debate on economic issues

PSOE just needs to get 10 seats out of PP according to that poll and you get a 50/50 split between the left and right blocs lmao

Honestly, I kinda hope PP + Vox get this win NOW than later at a more friendly moment after PSOE loses even more support in a few years after being in government but much weaker if they manage to win this.

With PP + VOX leading a weak government with barely a minority, it could be hard to get stuff done and reach agreement and they will also become more unpopular from being in the spotlight, which could lead to a much larger left-wing victory in the next elections. There’s nothing that strengthens the left as much as having outright dangerous fascists like Vox in power.

Here in Brazil I was impressed how everyone (media, establishment, manipulated public opinion) was strongly against the left between 2015-2020. The conservative wave in that 2nd half of 2010s felt like a real unprecedented movement here and that it would take a loooong time before the left would get back. I am from 1994 so the first 20 years of my life were under a completely different scenario, where the left was the “cool” mainstream option - especially since after the dictatorship collapsed we entered in a period of strong cultural progressivism in 80s and 90s that helped the left slowly emerge until finally reaching power in 2002.

But it only took less than two years of Bolsonaro in government for the left to become popular again simply because of the stuff our president would say - with reaction to covid being a definitive turning point.

A lot of Vox positions remind me of what Bolsonaro say, actually the Spanish far-right is the one that reminds me the most of the Brazilian one out of all the ones that exist in Europe. It’s incredibly the same DNA. So I imagine having Vox in power could have some kind of similar effect, especially considering they will be in power after LOSING support, only reaching power because of PP.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

PP and Boks have spent the whole campaign running on culture war nonsense, not surprising that voters are getting tired of it and turning back to the govt. It might turn out to be like America 2022 all over again. Knocking on wood

[jaichind]

What happens in case      176 >  (PP + VOX)  > (PSOE + Sumar)  ?

I always assumed that in such a case it will be PSOE + Sumar government with outside support from the anti-VOX regional parties.

[Vosem]

What happens in case      176 >  (PP + VOX)  > (PSOE + Sumar)  ?

I always assumed that in such a case it will be PSOE + Sumar government with outside support from the anti-VOX regional parties.

Depends how close PP + Vox are to 176; if it's a question of just a few votes they could probably form an agreement with someone (the Canarian Coalition?), but if there's a large amount of support they need to make up it might be easier for PSOE. There could also be new elections; Sánchez remains in power in an acting capacity until a government is actually formed.

[icc]

What happens in case      176 >  (PP + VOX)  > (PSOE + Sumar)  ?

I always assumed that in such a case it will be PSOE + Sumar government with outside support from the anti-VOX regional parties.

Depends how close PP + Vox are to 176; if it's a question of just a few votes they could probably form an agreement with someone (the Canarian Coalition?), but if there's a large amount of support they need to make up it might be easier for PSOE. There could also be new elections; Sánchez remains in power in an acting capacity until a government is actually formed.

And also the makeup of 'Others'. Junts and the CUP are obviously going to vote against PP / Vox, but are unlikely to be much help to the left block either for example.

[kaoras]

PP sowing: BEING IN THE SAME ROOM AS BILDU MAKES YOU A TERRORIST

PP reaping: The PP resigns to preside over the Vitoria City Council commissions after making a deal for them with EH Bildu

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1682475954621538306?s=20

[Zinneke]

PP and Boks have spent the whole campaign running on culture war nonsense, not surprising that voters are getting tired of it and turning back to the govt. It might turn out to be like America 2022 all over again. Knocking on wood

Knock on wood all you like, the media landscape that targets people who either don't have the time to follow debates or are outright deep into the Agenda 2030/conspiracy nonsense favours Vox and PP. Then add to that the issue Mediterranean immigration which simply won't go away any time soon with the climate crisis etc. In the end this culture war stuff is working on getting average shopping mall dwellers to vote these charlatans in, even though they are both the dumbest and most dangerous right wing spectrum in Western Europe at least.

What could save the Left block is the constituency system and the Basque Country and Catalonia essentially locking out the right from their provinces. But I still predict a comfortable PP-Vox majority. Valencia is usually a good bellwether for the GE and it's notable swing even in a relatively progressive inner city towards PP shows you something is brewing in terms of frustration.

[Conservatopia]

Remember folks: whenever the right is popular, it's because of media bias and astroturf campaigns targeted at uppity ignoramuses.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Remember folks: whenever the right is popular, it's because of media bias and astroturf campaigns targeted at uppity ignoramuses.

Could not have put it better myself! Let's see what happens.

[PSOL]

Alright, as of now I’m backing PCTE, the Spanish Left needs to bring in fresh faces and swing to the left instead of this awful campaign where they focus their energy in not being APiistas instead of a good pathway Spain can expect of their government.

Let’s hope this is the last of Sanchez

[Mike88]

The campaign is now over. Last campaign events/rallies of the major parties:

PSOE:

PP:

Vox:

Sumar:

[xelas81]

Alright, as of now I’m backing PCTE, the Spanish Left needs to bring in fresh faces and swing to the left instead of this awful campaign where they focus their energy in not being APiistas instead of a good pathway Spain can expect of their government.

Let’s hope this is the last of Sanchez

For context, PCTE won 13,828 votes last election.

[Mike88]

Alright, as of now I’m backing PCTE, the Spanish Left needs to bring in fresh faces and swing to the left instead of this awful campaign where they focus their energy in not being APiistas instead of a good pathway Spain can expect of their government.

Let’s hope this is the last of Sanchez

For context, PCTE won 13,828 votes last election.

Wow, PCTE had almost the same number of votes as its neighbor "comrade", PCTP.

[Velasco]

It's hard to translate, but the "Perro Sánchez" meme is quite funny. The PSOE canpaign ably transformed a Vox insult (the "Dog Sánchez") into a campaign joke. Handsome Sánchez has used it a lot in his final media appearances and in the last campaign rally (the PSOE played a Rigoberta Bandini's song called 'Perra', which can be translated as "Bitch"). "Perro Sanxe" rules  Happy Puppy's Day!

https://twitter.com/PSOE/status/1682329899741114369?t=9lg6wbG-tSrGttfwNXQjGQ&...