Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[CumbrianLefty]

Vox and Frente Obrero share a sacred mission; Recover Spain

Something horseshoe theory something something

[Velasco]

Vox and Frente Obrero share a sacred mission; Recover Spain

Something horseshoe theory something something

Maybe the purpose of parties like Frente Obrero is proving the horseshoe theory is true. Its leader Roberto Vaquero is allegedly a rojipardo, that is to say, someone who is equally "red" and "brown". A couple of examples of reactionary leftwing parties or figures: Communist Party of the Russian Federation and Sahra Wagenknecht.

Obviously I don't believe in the horseshoe theory, but it's clear some alleged leftists are openly reactionary.  See the Zyuganov Boys voting laws against LGBT people or Wagenknecht taking about immigrants and minorities. I mean,  "National Bolshevism" could be a thing for someone

[MRCVzla]

Opinion poll ban in effect since half hour ago (still some GESOP banned "market" polls now coming from Adelaide instead of Andorra will leak around the week), these are the final public tracking polls until Sunday:
CIS flash:
PSOE 32.2%
PP 30.8%
Sumar 14.9%
Vox 11.8%

GAD3 (Vocento)
PP 36.9% (152)
PSOE 28.6% (115)
Vox 11.7% (28)
Sumar 11.5% (24)

Sigma Dos (El Mundo)
PP 34.5% (145/150)
PSOE 28.0% (105/110)
Sumar 13.6% (33/36)
Vox 11.2% (26/29)

40dB (PRISA)
PP 32.9% (135)
PSOE 28.7% (110)
Vox 13.5% (38)
Sumar 13.7% (36)

NC Report (La Razón)
PP 37.2% (153/156)
PSOE 28.3% (106/109)
Sumar 11.3% (25/27)
Vox 11.0% (26/28)

Simple Lógica (elDiario.es)
PP 32.2% (130/138)
PSOE 28.6% (106/114)
Vox 13.9% (34/40)
Sumar 13.8% (33/39)

SocioMétrica (El Español)
PP 33.5% (143)
PSOE 28.3% (107)
Vox 13.7% (37)
Sumar 13.2% (33)

DYM (Henneo)
PP 35.5% (145/150)
PSOE 27.1% (102/106)
Sumar 13.1% (31/35)
Vox 12.3% (31/35)

Data 10 (OK Diario, the "23:59 poll")
PP 36.0% (152)
PSOE 29.5% (110)
Vox 12.5% (29)
Sumar 12.5% (28)

Target Point (El Debate)
PP 36.4% (150/152)
PSOE 28.1% (107/109)
Vox 12.4% (31/33)
Sumar 12.1% (29/31)

IMOP Insights (El Confidencial)
PP 32.9% (134/142)
PSOE 28.2% (99/108)
Vox 14.5% (38/42)
Sumar 12.8% (31/34)

Sondaxe (La Voz de Galicia)
PP 34.3% (141)
PSOE 28.7% (109)
Sumar 14.0% (37)
Vox 12.5% (29)

GESOP (Prensa Ibérica)
PP 30.6% (126/130)
PSOE 27.4% (104/108)
Vox 15.0% (44/48)
Sumar 14.4% (37/40)

ElectoPanel (Electomanía)
PP 34.5% (142)
PSOE 28.8% (106)
Vox 12.9% (35)
Sumar 13.4% (34)

YouGov MRP model
PP 32% (133)
PSOE 28% (113)
Vox 14% (42)
Sumar 14% (34)

Cluster17 (Le Grand Continent)
PP 33.6% (136)
PSOE 28.9% (108)
Vox 13.7% (37)
Sumar 13.5% (35)

[Mike88]

Adelaide?? You mean Adelaide, Australia??

[MRCVzla]

Adelaide?? You mean Adelaide, Australia??

Yep, since the May local elections, GESOP/Prensa Ibérica are now working with some Australian magazine/site called "The Adelaide Review" to publish their banned tracking polls to Tuesday to Friday as they do in the past in the so called "Andorra' fruit market", there the only expected pollster to once again defy the Spanish electoral law' polling ban regulation as the Electomanía site cannot do anymore their cryptic "emoji" online panel after being caught and sanctioned by the JEC in last year' Castilla y León regional election. GESOP polls historically tends to overpoll PSOE so only would matter in the relative of the trends would happen in the upcoming last days of the campaign, including the impact of Wednesday' 3-party debate in public broadcaster RTVE without Feijóo' presence.
https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1681003104781713408

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"Working with Australian magazines to evade Spanish polling regulations"
They can't be accused of lacking creativity...

[AustralianSwingVoter]

What’s weird is the Adelaide Review was an arts & culture magazine that stopped printing in 2020. Yet hidden in their otherwise archived website are Spanish polls!

[FredLindq]

Poll of polls then:
PP 34.0% (133)
PSOE 28.6% (102)
Sumar 13.2% (31)
Vox 12,9% (32)

PP+Vox 165 (11 short of majority)

Opinion poll ban in effect since half hour ago (still some GESOP banned "market" polls now coming from Adelaide instead of Andorra will leak around the week), these are the final public tracking polls until Sunday:
CIS flash:
PSOE 32.2%
PP 30.8%
Sumar 14.9%
Vox 11.8%

GAD3 (Vocento)
PP 36.9% (152)
PSOE 28.6% (115)
Vox 11.7% (28)
Sumar 11.5% (24)

Sigma Dos (El Mundo)
PP 34.5% (145/150)
PSOE 28.0% (105/110)
Sumar 13.6% (33/36)
Vox 11.2% (26/29)

40dB (PRISA)
PP 32.9% (135)
PSOE 28.7% (110)
Vox 13.5% (38)
Sumar 13.7% (36)

NC Report (La Razón)
PP 37.2% (153/156)
PSOE 28.3% (106/109)
Sumar 11.3% (25/27)
Vox 11.0% (26/28)

Simple Lógica (elDiario.es)
PP 32.2% (130/138)
PSOE 28.6% (106/114)
Vox 13.9% (34/40)
Sumar 13.8% (33/39)

SocioMétrica (El Español)
PP 33.5% (143)
PSOE 28.3% (107)
Vox 13.7% (37)
Sumar 13.2% (33)

DYM (Henneo)
PP 35.5% (145/150)
PSOE 27.1% (102/106)
Sumar 13.1% (31/35)
Vox 12.3% (31/35)

Data 10 (OK Diario, the "23:59 poll")
PP 36.0% (152)
PSOE 29.5% (110)
Vox 12.5% (29)
Sumar 12.5% (28)

Target Point (El Debate)
PP 36.4% (150/152)
PSOE 28.1% (107/109)
Vox 12.4% (31/33)
Sumar 12.1% (29/31)

IMOP Insights (El Confidencial)
PP 32.9% (134/142)
PSOE 28.2% (99/108)
Vox 14.5% (38/42)
Sumar 12.8% (31/34)

Sondaxe (La Voz de Galicia)
PP 34.3% (141)
PSOE 28.7% (109)
Sumar 14.0% (37)
Vox 12.5% (29)

GESOP (Prensa Ibérica)
PP 30.6% (126/130)
PSOE 27.4% (104/108)
Vox 15.0% (44/48)
Sumar 14.4% (37/40)

ElectoPanel (Electomanía)
PP 34.5% (142)
PSOE 28.8% (106)
Vox 12.9% (35)
Sumar 13.4% (34)

YouGov MRP model
PP 32% (133)
PSOE 28% (113)
Vox 14% (42)
Sumar 14% (34)

Cluster17 (Le Grand Continent)
PP 33.6% (136)
PSOE 28.9% (108)
Vox 13.7% (37)
Sumar 13.5% (35)

[jaichind]

Bloomberg's current poll of polls.  PP-VOX at 177

PSOE         PP      Sumar      VOX   Junts    Bildu    ERC   PNV     Other
28.2%    34.2%  13.0%   13.1%    2.0%   1.3%   2.3%  1.3%   4.7%
108         142       38           35        8         6        9        6   

[Mike88]

Adelaide?? You mean Adelaide, Australia??

Yep, since the May local elections, GESOP/Prensa Ibérica are now working with some Australian magazine/site called "The Adelaide Review" to publish their banned tracking polls to Tuesday to Friday as they do in the past in the so called "Andorra' fruit market", there the only expected pollster to once again defy the Spanish electoral law' polling ban regulation as the Electomanía site cannot do anymore their cryptic "emoji" online panel after being caught and sanctioned by the JEC in last year' Castilla y León regional election. GESOP polls historically tends to overpoll PSOE so only would matter in the relative of the trends would happen in the upcoming last days of the campaign, including the impact of Wednesday' 3-party debate in public broadcaster RTVE without Feijóo' presence.

I think that the law is just ridiculous and the JEC rulings just a total exaggeration. In the current digital age, internal polls are always leaked, and let's be honest, even in the past, when there was no internet or social media, these "forbidden polls" were also leaked and known by the general public. Anyway, the last GESOP poll had PP at 30.6% and PSOE at 27.4%, Vox at 15% and Sumar at 14.4%. Both PP and PSOE are bellow average in this poll, while Vox and Sumar are above average.

[Velasco]

Gordon Brown: Spain's elections are a key battle in the struggle against neofascism in Europe

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/14/spain-election-europe-neo-fascism-vox-germany-finland

A PP-Vox government would shift EU politics to the right, reinforcing the strategic alliance between Manfred Weber and Giorgia Meloni

Feijóo was confronted by a RTVE journalist when he assured past PP governments increased pensions indexed to the inflation rates,  which is false. Even though Feijóo said he would apologize in case he was wrong, the PP candidate didn't do it and claims he didn't tell lies, for he was just "incorrect".or "imprecise". The problem is that Feijóo is never correct or precise with data and he's neither good with numbers  

 I think Feijóo is a liar and a mediocre unworthy of the post,  but he's the man with the best chances to be the next Spanish PM.  

On the other hand, Feijoo's ally Santiago Abascal says tensions will inevitably rise in Catalonia when PP and Vox reach power. The Vox leader was crystal clear saying the situation in Catalonia will be even worse than 2017

[mileslunn]

Gordon Brown: Spain's elections are a key battle in the struggle against neofascism in Europe

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/14/spain-election-europe-neo-fascism-vox-germany-finland

A PP-Vox government would shift EU politics to the right, reinforcing the strategic alliance between Manfred Weber and Giorgia Meloni

Feijóo was confronted by a RTVE journalist when he assured past PP governments increased pensions indexed to the inflation rates,  which is false. Even though Feijóo said he would apologize in case he was wrong, the PP candidate didn't do it and claims he didn't tell lies, for he was just "incorrect".or "imprecise". The problem is that Feijóo is never correct or precise with data and he's neither good with numbers  

 I think Feijóo is a liar and a mediocre unworthy of the post,  but he's the man with the best chances to be the next Spanish PM.  

On the other hand, Feijoo's ally Santiago Abascal says tensions will inevitably rise in Catalonia when PP and Vox reach power. The Vox leader was crystal clear saying the situation in Catalonia will be even worse than 2017

It does seem non-English speaking European countries really are drifting to right quite a bit, any reason for that?  UK & Ireland seem only good news in polls for left at moment but in both cases probably more fatigue with present government and in case of Ireland not sure Sinn Fein would enter government anyways.  UK sort of had their fill with right wing populism over Brexit so maybe one bright light how it doesn't last, but also none of the right wing populist parties proposing anything as economically damaging as Brexit.  And I think economic damage shifts people more than culture wars does against hard right.

[Red Velvet]

I’ve done the cluster17 test and got "Los republicanos"

4,9% of Spanish population and electorally all over the place, divided between PSOE/PP and a bunch of Catalan independence parties.

It’s categorized as a group dominated by male voters from rural areas in Catalonia/Baleares/Asturias/La Rioja who are against the monarchy (“Republicans”) and apparently is the cluster where most Catalan independence supporters fall into???

I don’t get it tbh, because I answered against Catalan independence in the test!

It’s also described as a left-wing group that is more “liberal” on economic stuff, like favoring lower taxes, even though my answers were very left-wing economically.

I guess it was mostly my mixed answers on the cultural stuff that made me fall there since the cluster is described as more ambivalent on those issues - they favor gay rights and immigrant rights but seem to be more skeptical of feminist and environmental issues lol

I don’t even agree with that but the feminist and environmental questions there just sounded nonsense to me. Make feminist classes MANDATORY in schools is being anti-feminist now? And not thinking reducing speed limit from 120km/h to 110km/h is a real ambiental solution against pollution is anti-environmental?

Still, I was surprised that it described that group as male, young and upper class because I’m all that so it does somewhat make sense even if it’s about the realities of a whole different country.

[Vosem]

Test link without Vanguardia' paywall: https://cluster17.com/espagne/
I got "Socialdemocrat"

Tu resultado :
Perteneces al clúster :
"Los antiasistencialistas"

• 5,7% de la población
• Movilización electoral: media
• Intención de voto: 57% Vox, 26% PP, 9% Coalición Canaria

Son uno de los grupos educados y de clase media-alta de España: el 64% tiene un título universitario y el 43% ingresa más de 2.000 euros al mes. Hay una fuerte prevalencia de autónomos. Partidarios del liberalismo económico, tienen posiciones muy marcadas en la mayoría de temas. La libertad es el valor principal que impulsa a los antiasistencialistas; por esta razón, se oponen fuertemente a las medidas restrictivas, especialmente las relacionadas con el medioambiente. Promueven la responsabilidad individual y se oponen a la redistribución de la riqueza y a la inmigración.

Aunque sean favorables a la autoridad del Estado, son la tribu de la derecha menos hostil a los nacionalismos periféricos, y también el que tiene opiniones más divididas sobre la monarquía y la Iglesia. De hecho, son también el grupo menos creyente de la derecha y están bastante abiertos a los cambios en los temas sociales. Votan poco, pero ahora parecen inclinarse mayoritariamente hacia Vox, después de haber sido un punto de equilibrio entre las fuerzas de derecha.

¡¿Estos hombres piensan que yo debería votar por Vox?! Son ellos que pertenecen a un clúster...

Al otro lado, de verdad me gusta su dibujo de un tipo antiasistencialista :

[Bacon King]

los progresistas

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

los liberales

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

6,4% de la población
Movilización electoral: alta
Intención de voto: 87% PP, 8% Vox
El 96% se opone a un referéndum pactado sobre la independencia de Cataluña.
El 95% se opone a prohibir las corridas de toros.
El 94% se opone a reducir el consumo de carne para limitar el sufrimiento de los animales.
El 92% está a favor de la apertura de centrales nucleares en España.
El 91% se opone a abolir la monarquía e instaurar una república.
El 90% se opone a instaurar la pena de muerte para los asesinos de niños.
Son uno de los grupos con mayor nivel educativo y económico en España, donde los ejecutivos y las profesiones intelectuales están claramente sobrerrepresentados. Están especialmente presentes en Madrid y en menor medida en Andalucía y Murcia, mientras que apenas tienen peso en Catalunya. Son un grupo politizado, con opiniones firmes sobre la mayoría de temas. Son favorables al cambio de sexo, a la adopción por parte de parejas homosexuales y a la inmigración, y se oponen a la instauración de la pena de muerte. Son defensores de las libertades individuales y, en general, se oponen a medidas restrictivas, incluso por motivos ecológicos. En términos económicos, quieren aumentar el apoyo a las empresas, privatizar y reducir impuestos. Se oponen ferozmente al empleo público.

Están comprometidos con la monarquía y la Iglesia, aunque tengan opiniones divididas sobre la idea de ampliar los poderes del rey o fortalecer la educación católica en las escuelas. Están muy movilizados en las elecciones y todo indica que votarán abrumadoramente al PP después de la desaparición de Ciudadanos.

It seems they weighed my strongly anti-getting rid of the monarchy and firmly unionist (but still pro-autonomous community) responses quite heavily. This is not surprising of a response. But in fact, based on what Velasco has said, the union is in safe hands under PSOE, and they are a very good party for me.

EDIT: took quiz again and got the following.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

8,1% de la población
Movilización electoral: baja
Intención de voto: 54% PSOE, 22% PP, 16% Sumar
El 90% se opone a la introducción de un test intelectual para conceder el derecho de voto.
El 88% se opone al restablecimiento de la pena de muerte para los asesinos de niños.
El 88% se opone a prohibir la enseñanza en lenguas cooficiales.
El 87% se opone al bloqueo de los barcos de inmigrantes.
El 85% se opone al derecho de los policías a disparar a las personas que les amenacen.
El 77% se opone a un referéndum pactado sobre la independencia de Catalunya.
Son un grupo intergeneracional, mayoritariamente de clase media-baja, compuesto por empleados, obreros y jubilados. A diferencia de otros grupos de izquierda, la mayoría son creyentes, pero poco practicantes. Destacan principalmente por tener posiciones poco marcadas en la mayoría de las principales divisiones que estructuran la sociedad española, incluyendo la relación con la Iglesia o la monarquía. Sin embargo, son progresistas en términos de valores: rechazan la pena de muerte, defienden los derechos LGBT y son favorables a los inmigrantes. Moderados y poco politizados, forman parte de los votantes menos predispuestos para ir a votar en las próximas elecciones.

Sin embargo, cuando votan, generalmente lo hacen mayoritariamente por el PSOE. Para el 23-J, Sumar y PP parecen atraer a una pequeña parte de este grupo sin amenazar la hegemonía del PSOE.

It seems I am on the border between social democrat and liberal.

[FrancoAgo]

los laburistas

[Logical]

Something extremely cursed to begin your day with.

[Continential]

Da fuq

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Apparently these people also made this.
Deeply disturbing, to say the least.
I think it's saying that Abascal will make anime real? And telling people their waifus want them to vote for VOX?
The sad thing is that I could see this working on some people...

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I saw the "debate a tres," definitely protagonizado por Yolanda Diaz & Santiago Abascal, featuring Pedro Sanchez as best supporting actor. One of the RTVE post-debate analysts put it well I think, "This was a debate between vice-presidents." It felt very much like the arguments between Diaz & Abascal dominated the evening, with Pedro Sanchez nonetheless performing much better than he did in his cara-a-cara with Feijoo.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

[It’s so Joever]

Test link without Vanguardia' paywall: https://cluster17.com/espagne/
I got "Socialdemocrat"

Tu resultado :
Perteneces al clúster :
"Los antiasistencialistas"

• 5,7% de la población
• Movilización electoral: media
• Intención de voto: 57% Vox, 26% PP, 9% Coalición Canaria

Son uno de los grupos educados y de clase media-alta de España: el 64% tiene un título universitario y el 43% ingresa más de 2.000 euros al mes. Hay una fuerte prevalencia de autónomos. Partidarios del liberalismo económico, tienen posiciones muy marcadas en la mayoría de temas. La libertad es el valor principal que impulsa a los antiasistencialistas; por esta razón, se oponen fuertemente a las medidas restrictivas, especialmente las relacionadas con el medioambiente. Promueven la responsabilidad individual y se oponen a la redistribución de la riqueza y a la inmigración.

Aunque sean favorables a la autoridad del Estado, son la tribu de la derecha menos hostil a los nacionalismos periféricos, y también el que tiene opiniones más divididas sobre la monarquía y la Iglesia. De hecho, son también el grupo menos creyente de la derecha y están bastante abiertos a los cambios en los temas sociales. Votan poco, pero ahora parecen inclinarse mayoritariamente hacia Vox, después de haber sido un punto de equilibrio entre las fuerzas de derecha.

¡¿Estos hombres piensan que yo debería votar por Vox?! Son ellos que pertenecen a un clúster...

Al otro lado, de verdad me gusta su dibujo de un tipo antiasistencialista :

Si vivirías en España, por quién votarías? PP?

[Zinneke]

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Apparently these people also made this.
Deeply disturbing, to say the least.
I think it's saying that Abascal will make anime real? And telling people their waifus want them to vote for VOX?
The sad thing is that I could see this working on some people...

Vox is full of peverts, like the GOP and pretty much every right wing party. Forocoches is like a worse version of 4chan.

Incidentally, there's a bit of a mini-scandal because El Pais reported that Ursula Von Der Leyen was apparently unimpressed when meeting Feijoo, and was quoted as saying "this guy only cares about destroying his own government". Cue the Brussels PR machine launching full force onto El Pais to get them to rectify the "unfounded" comments.

[CookieDamage]

Spain under the PSOE was able to de-escalate the Catalan independence issue and now Vox will throw all that progress away, all because they want to emulate Franco and ban the Catalan language.