Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Former President tack50]

I think folks in the PSOE are not fully aware of what is coming ahead. A rightwing victory wouldn't be a comeback to Aznar or Rajoy. A PP-VOX government will be something much worse,  a true reactionary involution.

I don't see Feijóo as radical or reactionary, on the contrary. As Galician President he was a moderate and seems to fall in line with the Moreno Bonilla trend inside the PP. However, I'm not sure how he will handle Vox or even how Vox will manage being that close to power. We can't rule out anything but I wouldn't be surprised if in 2 years or so, if the PP wins the July elections of course, the PP+Vox deals collapses and Feijóo tries to win a majority of his own.

Feijóo is just a conservative man from Galicia. The problem is that he is not the actual leader of the PP,  just the person who provisionally puts his face in electoral posters.  The forces that drive the PP nowadays are in Madrid. On the other hand, the PP will need Vox to govern. Santiago Abascal will demand to be Deputy PM and some portfolios for Vox. Pretty soon the right-wing coalition will revoke progressive legislation and implement a reactionary agenda, cutting social and civic rights, as well prosecuting migrants and minorities. I have little doubt about that

Well, if PP succeeds he will also become the guy in Moncloa palace! Which gives the interesting thing that the last 2 PP PMs will be (relative) moderates from Galicia. Both also examples in "failing upwards" in a way.

I'm not saying you're wrong about the PP now being "ruled" by the Madrid local branch, but, again, Feijóo is Galician and I live in Northern Portugal, we have similar quirks and when we are stubborn, we are stubborn. I think that, once in power, we cannot rule out that Feijóo would want to do things on his own way. We'll see.

For what is worth, the scenario you described already sort of happened with the other Galician PP leader we had (Rajoy). He used to be much more of a hardliner between 2004 and 2008, with Madrid premier Esperanza Aguirre playing a very similar role to Ayuso currently. After losing the 2008 election, Rajoy was indirectly primaried by Esperanza Aguirre, who last minute refused to run in the primaries. After that, the economic downturn hit and Rajoy basically sat and did nothing during the 2008-11 term, winning PP's largest victory essencially by being "Not-PSOE".

You can even get some of the parallels related to deals with secessionist parties (Zapatero being dependent on ERC, which at the time was much more of a hardliner party, was seen as unthinkable; and of course he negotiated with ETA) and the delegitimation of his government.

The main issue is that the parallels to 2004-08 immediately break with this election. The 2007 regional elections were basically a draw. The 2023 regional elections uh... not so much. And of course Zapatero was slightly favoured in 2008 (and won) while Sanchez is in an uphill battle that he will very likely lose.

[Former President tack50]

That 2000 alliance was a disaster, wasn't it? Though in the smaller provinces all the votes to the non-PSOE left are going to the trash anyway.

The alliance never materialized and the outcome of the 2000 general elections was a majority for the PP led by José María Aznar. There are many differences between 2000 and 2023, on the other hand. By 2000 Vox didn't exist and Aznar had spent four years governing in a moderate style supported by CiU or PNV. Those were years of apparent economic prosperity and the Aznar narrative was very succesful; "España va bien". With the majoority achieved in the 2000 elections, Aznar showed his true face turning to be the arrogant rightwinger everybody knows.

I checked my precinct resuts and they are a bit shocking

PSOE 35.3%, PP 21.1%, Hablemos Ahora 11.4%, Vox 9,3%, USP 6.5%, NC 6%

For some reason the Hablemos Ahora ("let's talk now") list performed strongly in my neighbourhood, otherwise solidly PSOE. To be honest, I don't have a clue about that party. The website says it was founded in November 2020 in Gran Canaria and they are allegedly a "centrist, progressive and liberal" force

Your precinct almost certainly has a counting mistake. My guess is Hablemos Ahora and CC's results got swapped around (somehow)

Anyways, here's my home town's precinct where I used to live, and where my vote got actually counted by mail:

PSOE: 26.7%
PP: 26.5%
Vox: 13.3%
UP: 7.8%
CC: 6.8%
NCa: 5.1%

And the precinct I'm currently living in in Madrid

PP: 60.9%
Vox: 11.8%
MM: 9.7%
PSOE: 8.5%
Cs: 4.6%
Podemos: 2.3%

You know your precinct is uber-conservative when even now Cs is above Podemos lmao

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Speaking of which, can someone explain to me what's the deal with Podemos and Sumar? I don't really understand it.

This article was released in November 2022,  but it explains in detail the origin of the divergence between Pablo Igledias and Yolanda Díaz. The breakdown between Iglesias and Errejón predates to months before the Vistalegre II Podemos convention in 2017 (the breakaway was prior to the 2019 regional elections).

https://www.eldiario.es/escolar/ruptura-pablo-iglesias-yolanda-diaz-pasando-unidas_132_9706388.html

This one is more recent: why Madrid is so rightwing?

https://www.eldiario.es/opinion/derecha-fuerte-madrid_129_10228809.html

So this sounds like the origin of the split is that Iglesias wanted Díaz to lead the alliance when she didn't feel like it yet? Pretty weird. But I was more so asking why Podemos (now led by Ione Belarra I reckon) did not join Sumar this year.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

And the precinct I'm currently living in in Madrid

PP: 60.9%
Vox: 11.8%
MM: 9.7%
PSOE: 8.5%
Cs: 4.6%
Podemos: 2.3%

You know your precinct is uber-conservative when even now Cs is above Podemos lmao

Salamanca? Yikes... although honestly I find kind of funny how Ayuso monopolized the right-wing vote even at the expense of Madrid Vox.

[Lumine]

But why exactly did Cs collapse so badly?

It could be argued that its strategic decisions left it - as Zinneke argued - without much of an actual space. Once Vox showed up, all those hardline centralist voters had somewhere else to go. By refusing to enter into government with Sanchez post-2018 and trying to become PP-light, they didn't exactly gave centrists (or those keen to prevent a government being propped by Podemos or the nationalists) a reason to support them either.

Tactically, it was mistake after mistake. I could be wrong in my interpretation of events, but from I what I can recall (warning, long post):

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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-C's reaches its height in 2017-2018. It wins the Catalonian elections, but crucially, Inés Arrimadas declines to event attempt to form a government. Although the numbers aren't there, her lack of even an attempt undermines the whole point of voting for C's there.

-Rivera is riding high on the polls in 2018, enough to dream of actually winning the next election. When Rajoy's suddenly left vulnerable due to new revelations on PP corruption scandals, Rivera and C's "withdraw" support for Rajoy's government.

-Sensing an opportunity to become PM, Sanchez and PSOE launch a VONC that would make Sanchez the next premier. Rivera, crucially, is unable to launch his own VONC, because he doesn't have enough deputies.

-Fearing Sanchez taking over and consolidating support for his own - as Rivera wants immediate elections he feels he can win -, Rivera does a 180° and has C's oppose the VONC. It passes anyway.

-With Sanchez now in power and unwilling to call a snap election, Rivera and company - this is my interpretation - feel they have been robbed of their grand opportunity. They go apesh*t at Sanchez for the next few months, trying to undermine him with absurdly harsh criticism while increasing polarization.

-C's and PP are becoming increasingly similar in rhetoric, and even run together in Navarra. Vox shows up, threatening to steal hardliners away from C's. In the infamous Foto de Colón, Rivera is photgraphed alongside Vox's Abascal and PP's Casado, allowing PSOE to persistently link C's to the far-right and diminish its centrist appeal.

-APRIL 2019 ELECTION: C's falls far short of its 2018 polling height. However, it makes gains, with the sum of C's and PSOE actually garnering a majority. On the other side, the PP's utter debacle leaves C's within a few points and seats of leading the opposition. Rivera is therefore forced to choose: become DPM under Sanchez to prevent a PSOE government with Podemos and Nationalist support, despite having savaged him and promised not to support him for months; or gamble it all on surpassing PP and becoming the new main party of the right.

-Rivera chooses the latter, despite enormous pressure from various interest groups to push him into a PSOE-C's government. Over the next few months, he gets thoroughly criticized on the media for it. Rivera, to this day, claims the economic establishment dumped him due to his refusal, and further claims that Sanchez never wanted a deal with him in the first place (maybe, but Sanchez is about as opportunistic as it comes).

-A few weeks after, the PP manages to hold on in several regional contests due to his stronger and more established local presence. C's dreams of surpassing PP are weakened, Casado gains a stay of execution. Rivera then has C's establish a hard veto to PSOE on regional legislatures, forming multiple regional governments with PP.

-The deadlock continues, new elections are called. Rivera, losing ground in the polls by the minute due to poor media coverage, erratic decisions, the previous mistakes, and a number of defections from internal critics opposed to the attitude against PSOE, and so on, suddenly lifts the PSOE veto at the last minute. To put it mildly, it doesn't do wonders for his already deteriorated image.

-NOVEMBER 2019: The already known debacle. Having lost voters and credibility, facing a hostile media, running an awkward campaign (Rivera doesn't help with cringe debate performances) and having a stench of death due to bad polling, C's crashes UCD style.

Long story short, the shortest explanation would be that they bought into their own hype, overplayed their hand, behaved erratically and made serious mistakes whenever things went wrong, and in the process lost most of their electorate and entered a death spiral, that they could not get out of.

[Former President tack50]

And the precinct I'm currently living in in Madrid

PP: 60.9%
Vox: 11.8%
MM: 9.7%
PSOE: 8.5%
Cs: 4.6%
Podemos: 2.3%

You know your precinct is uber-conservative when even now Cs is above Podemos lmao

Salamanca? Yikes... although honestly I find kind of funny how Ayuso monopolized the right-wing vote even at the expense of Madrid Vox.

Nope, it's near Moncloa. Though to be fair, it votes fairly similar to Salmanca, certainly more conservative (even if not by much) than nearby Chamberí. By the way, in my first 6 months in the city I used to live in an even more conservative area!

Also, that was Almeida, not even Ayuso! Queen Ayuso's results were even better in my precinct (even if mostly taking votes from Vox), two thirds of my neighbours voted for her!:

PP: 67.5%
MM: 11.0%
PSOE: 8%
Vox: 7.6%
UP: 2.5%
Cs: 1.6%

Also on the topic of Madrid, fun fact: the amount of municipalities that did not vote Ayuso doubled this time, from 2 (and a tie) to 4. PSOE retains Fuentidueña del Tajo and El Atazar and gains neighbouring Valdaracete and Patones.

Fun fact #2: I actually went on a "pilgrimage" to Fuentidueña del Tajo to visit one of the only two non-Ayuso voting towns like a year ago! (BRTD would be proud lol) And to be honest for being a random village in the middle of nowhere, it beat my admittedly low expectations

[Velasco]

ERC leader Oriol Junqueras opts to support Xavier Trias, who will be the next mayor of Barcelona. I heard the ERC premier Pere Aragonès wants to try a rapprochement with Junts. The prospect of a rightwing victory might reunite the divided independence movement in Catalonia

https://twitter.com/lolagarciagar/status/1663959674020941825?t=jM2bufSTulYD2xTUV...

[Zinneke]

Without Sanchez calling the GE, do ERC play a waiting game in BCN rather than hand Trias a lot of power so suddenly?

[crals]

So if no candidate gets a majority Trias becomes Mayor of Barcelona automatically?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So if no candidate gets a majority Trias becomes Mayor of Barcelona automatically?

Yes.

[Velasco]

So this sounds like the origin of the split is that Iglesias wanted Díaz to lead the alliance when she didn't feel like it yet? Pretty weird. But I was more so asking why Podemos (now led by Ione Belarra I reckon) did not join Sumar this year.

The weird thing is that Pablo Iglesias is still the leader of what's left of Podemos. Ione Belarra is only a puppet. She puts her face and takes on the responsibility (well, not really, she should have resigned after the recent debacle), while Iglesias dictates the political line from La Base podcast and Canal Red TV.  

Podemos leadership was demanding to close an agreement on the lists for the general elections as a prerequisite to join Sumar. Yolanda Díaz and her circle argued that it was too soon, as Díaz was finishing the so-called "process of hearing" and the working groups were finishing their proposals for the Sumar platform. Podemos was demanding a bilateral negotiation with "the party of Yolanda Díaz ", while the Yolanda Díaz circle said there would be multilateral negotiations with all the parties involved in the Sumar Movement. Another disagreement was the timing: Yolanda Díaz wanted to start negotiations after local and regional elections, while Podemos demanded to close a deal before. So Yolanda Díaz decided to launch her candidacy for the Sumar project in early April without having secured the presence of Podemos. Despite some Podemos members in the regions supported Sumar and many attended the Sumar acts throughout Spain, no one from the national leadership attended the launching event in Madrid.

Shortly afterwards Yolanda Díaz was interviewed by TV journalist Jordi Évole. The interview was focused on her relationship with Pablo Iglesias.  She explained the Iglesias' designation of her as the UP canfidate and his successor was an unilateral move, that he didn't ask her opinion before making the announcement. Díaz said that she had a horrible day and was pondering to resign from government, but she finally decided to take on the challenge. The alienation between the two grew as it was becoming apparent that Yolanda Díaz,wanted to fly free from the influence of Pablo Iglesias

Quite possubly the launching event without Podemos and the TV interview were serious mistakes on the part of Yolanda Díaz

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Fun fact #2: I actually went on a "pilgrimage" to Fuentidueña del Tajo to visit one of the only two non-Ayuso voting towns like a year ago! (BRTD would be proud lol) And to be honest for being a random village in the middle of nowhere, it beat my admittedly low expectations

I seem to recall you talking about that! I am glad you liked it. Are you going to Valdaracete this year?

[Velasco]

So if no candidate gets a majority Trias becomes Mayor of Barcelona automatically?

Yes, candidates wimning a plurality get the mayoralty unless there's an alternative majority backing another candidate

[RodPresident]

ERC leader Oriol Junqueras opts to support Xavier Trias, who will be the next mayor of Barcelona. I heard the ERC premier Pere Aragonès wants to try a rapprochement with Junts. The prospect of a rightwing victory might reunite the divided independence movement in Catalonia

https://twitter.com/lolagarciagar/status/1663959674020941825?t=jM2bufSTulYD2xTUV...

Can this backfire on ERC losing left-wing voters?

[S019]

So if no candidate gets a majority Trias becomes Mayor of Barcelona automatically?

Yes, candidates wimning a plurality get the mayoralty unless there's an alternative majority backing another candidate

Do you need an absolute majority or a simple one? In other terms is it possible to get PP to abstain in the vote of a PSOE led coalition?

[Mike88]

She's back:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1663916524011233281

Macarena Olona has registered a political party called 'Caminemos Juntos' with which she will run for the generals on the next #23J.

Not sure what's the goal of her party, but whatever.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

With attack ads like this, Pedro Sánchez is going to absolutely walk the 2004 election.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1663493881747623938

[Velasco]

Can this backfire on ERC losing left-wing voters?

There are some left-wing voters in Catalonia switching between ERC and the Comuns (UP counterpart, now Sumar) in general elections, but the cleavage in regional elections is clearly on the national question. I don't think this move is going to have ahuge impact in the vote, but I'd say the general trend is a certain reinforcement of the PSC (PSOE) in Catalonia. In case local elections are tellng us something about voting trends in general elections, I'd say Junts will grow a little at the expense pf ERC

So if no candidate gets a majority Trias becomes Mayor of Barcelona automatically?

Yes, candidates winning a plurality get the mayoralty unless there's an alternative majority backing another candidate

Do you need an absolute majority or a simple one? In other terms is it possible to get PP to abstain in the vote of a PSOE led coalition?

Absolute majority. As the second placed candidate in Barcelona, Jaume Collboni needs 21 out of 41 councilors to be elected mayor. The abstention of the PP wouldn't be enough to get the PSC candidate elected (besides, the PP would be unwilling to give PSC the mayoralty). Xavier Trias will be able to form a minority government as the first placed candidate

[Former President tack50]

Fun fact #2: I actually went on a "pilgrimage" to Fuentidueña del Tajo to visit one of the only two non-Ayuso voting towns like a year ago! (BRTD would be proud lol) And to be honest for being a random village in the middle of nowhere, it beat my admittedly low expectations

I seem to recall you talking about that! I am glad you liked it. Are you going to Valdaracete this year?

From a quick look Valdaracete sounds much less promsing tbh. It has a church (like literally every Spanish town with a population above 3) and... that's about it really. Maaybe some hiking trails but southeast Madrid isn't exactly super pretty (it might make for a decent biking trail but I do not own a bike). Public transit is good enough that I could consider it though.

The other pickup, Patones, is probably a better place. A "pedanía" of it, Patones de Arriba, seems like a tiny but lovely mountain town, with a hiking trail connecting it to Patones proper. Not much else but it beats "Random Castillian Town #212331". Bus service is a lot worse though, even if still good enough that I could consider it.

Oh and if I do decide to do any of these, I better do them quickly as I'll lose my youth card next year as I'll be over 26 (the adult card is only valid for Madrid city limits. Though Ayuso promised to cut fares, so maybe paying an extra like 5-10€ a month will be worth it if I travel enough lol)

On this topic, I also considered going to the most PSOE-voting precinct, but never went for it. Wasn't too interesting, just a precinct next to a park in one of Madrid's poorest neighbourhoods (Entrevías). The park would have made for a decent excursion I suppose.

Another fun "pilgrimage" I considered was to go to the closest UP voting town in the 2019 general election. Which is a random hamlet in rural Guadalajara with a population of 14 (La Olmeda de Jadraque). Not doing it cause it involves walking like 3 hours each way from what's already a rather small town (Sigüenza), to watch a literal handful of houses lmao (might be doable on a bike though).

[Velasco]

Clara Serra is right. The PSOE is going to lose elections going in full negative campaign mode. Trying to counter the PP's negative campaign might work to a certain extent, but I think the fear of the right is not a mobilizing factor anymore. Unless the PSOE and the left find the way to create illusion and talk to the people about all the good things they have done (the balance of the PSOE-UP government is positive and they have implemented a lot of legislation), they are going to lose badly. Certainly Sánchez is fluent in English and he's respected abroad, while Feijóo has a serious problem with foreign languages and he does not look very brilliant.  Nevertheless,  most Spaniards have problems to learn and speak English and other foreign languages. Mocking Feijóo is a very bad idea. Also, regarding some of my eatlier posts and Mike's replies, it'd be a mistake trying to characterize Feijóo as a radical rightwinger. I have little doubt a PP-VOX government will implement a reactionary agenda and create a lot of suffering,  but Feijóo himself is by no means comparable to Trump

https://twitter.com/Clara_Serra_/status/1664288053224001536?t=Jw-wYWU8y868iMIfLL...

Clara Serra is a young philosophy professor and an expert in feminism. Formerly she was a Podemos member in the Errejón faction and the regional spokeswoman of Más Madrid in the regional assembly. She left politics over disagreements with Iñigo Errejón when the latter decided to launch Más País and contest the November 2019 general elections.  I'm a bit of a fan

[kaoras]

No Velasco, Hope, sunshine and Rainbows are absolutely ineffective against the vicious negative campaigns that the Spanish (and Chilean) right employs. As Boric and company can surely tell you.

[Velasco]

No Velasco, Hope, sunshine and Rainbows are absolutely ineffective against the vicious negative campaigns that the Spanish (and Chilean) right employs. As Boric and company can surely tell you.

Sure, I know where are you coming from. I think Yolanda Díaz must have realized at this point that smiles, hugs and kisses are not enough when you are confronting an extremely aggressive and negative campaign from the right. But it'd be a mistake to believe that we don't need to think about sunshine and rainbows. We need hope above anyhing else. Certainly the left is able to behave in the most stupid ways imaginable, as we can testify from the lamentable spectacles of the Chilean constituent assembly and the infighting within the Spanish left. However, I'm certain the best way to lose and become irrelevant is the way Podemos has became in a tiny sect, driven by negative feelings like bitterness and nostalgia. We all know that Pablo Iglesias and others have been bitten hard by the most vicious attacks from the right, but we are not going to achieve anything hiding in a bunker. Without hope, life is meaningless

[Velasco]

It's fascinating the to see the transformation of Macarena Olona, who used to be the most aggresive of the Vox's spokeswomen. It’s amazingly weird to hear Olona speaking about the republic vs monarchy debate in such a calm manner. It was even weirder, back in the day, to hear Olona vindicating a comminist like the former IU leader Julio Anguita as the Vox candidate in Andalusia. The macarenazo ended in a fiasco, perhaps because she was too aggresive and had little connection to that southern Spanish region. guess her pretension is to establish a brand of rightwing populism with social tones. Maybe her party is not going to achieve anything, but it seems something curious to watch

https://twitter.com/Lanoche_24h/status/1664376432070410240?t=UysrHWRx7xCY0locnYA...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thing about a scorched-earth campaign is that in order to be effective - and that doesn't necessarily mean victory: saving the furniture is often objective enough - it has to tap in to the fears, concerns and prejudices of enough of its target audience. If it doesn't, then it's just catastrophic: there's a reason why 'Is This The Face Of A Prime Minister' and the Demon Eyes posters are remembered, and it isn't because they worked.

[Former President tack50]

Honestly as someone who heavily leans PSOE, I am extremely disappointed at this scorched earth, full on attacks campaign. Yes, it's fine attacking PP for dealing with Vox, but this is well into the overboard and hyperbole territory in my opinion.

Between this and some very clearly populist measures from the Sanchez government (not like PP goverments don't do those, Ayuso also did a handful on her regional campaign); I am starting to get second thoughts on voting for them! No, I won't be voting PP for the record; but I am most definitely considering CC and may even consider a protest vote for some niche party with 0.1% of the vote if things get bad enough).

Of course I may also "come home" and vote for him anyways. But I'm starting to think along the lines of "If I wanted the rethoric of Podemos/Pablo Iglesias, I'd vote for Podemos". (Ironically if Yolanda Diaz does succeed and goes with a happy/moderate campaign I may start personally liking her more than scorched earth Sánchez lmao. Just not enough to vote Sumar over PSOE)

Also, if Sanchez goes with such a campaign, wouldn't he be losing any remaining chance to get moderate voters? Then again maybe his objective is to get a good loss and lead a strong opposition rather than actually winning I suppose.