Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Velasco]

UP under Yolanda Diaz will be a very different organization. Remember that she is not a Podemos member, but a member of the PCE.

Could you elaborate on this? What is the internal culture of the PCE these days?

It's hard to tell what's the internal culture of the PCE nowadays, because the role of the party has become increasingly testimonial as the importance of the organization has diminished over the years. As you probably know,  the PCE was the hegemonic organization within IU. Initially IU was conceived as an electoral coalition or a vehicle for the PCE,  but gradually the party gave up protagonism to IU. The modest electoral success of IU and its secondary role within UP since 2016 have blurred the role and the importance of the PCE. It's crear that the party is far away from the reformist stance and the eurocommunist line imposed by Santiago Carrillo during the years of the Transition (there was a fierce struggle between reformist and orthodox factions by then) snd supports a rupturist stance with regards the polítical system born in 1978. But again, the influence the PCE has diminished in to a great degree and it's not apparent the party line has influenced Yolanda Diaz in her role as cabinet member.

Yolanda Diaz has a background as lawyer specialized in labour law with links to the trade unions. Her family was renowned within the trade union movement and the opposition to the Franco regime. Ironically Franco and Diaz are both from El Ferrol,  a town in Galicia with an important naval base and a shipyard industry. The background of Pablo Iglesias is very different, as he was a young political science professor at the Complutense University.  So it's reasonable to expect that the different background and personality of Yolanda Diaz will reflect in UP if she becomes the new leading figure.

Yolanda Díaz has revealed an ability for negotiation in her tenure as Labour minister,  achieving important compromises between trade unions and employers associations. She is a woman of solid political convictions and behind her smiles and soft manners there is a strong personality. She has higher approval rates and is less divisive than Pablo Iglesias,  but obviously she has a lower name recognition.

It's ironic that Spain will have its first communist deputy PM when the Communist Party is in a historical minimum.

[Velasco]

Pablo Iglesias offered Alberto Garzón to be candidate in Madrid,  but the IU leader refused considering his place is not in regional politics.  Podemos was lacking an appropiate candidate for this tough contest and UP was falling below the 5% threshold in opinion polls. This dire situation accelerated a plan that Iglesias had in mind,  as he had no intention to contest the next general elections and has been thinking that Yolanda Díaz was the best replacement. Yolanda Diaz was initially reluctant when Iglesias began to suggest that she could be a good candidate for general elections. Diaz left IU in 2019 over differences with Alberto Garzón,  but she retains the PCE membership. She has a good relationship with the PCE secretary general Enrique Santiago,  a discreet man who played a role in the failed negotiation between PSOE and UP in the summer of 2019.  She is also in good terms with Barcelona mayor Ada Colau and ECP,  but her only contact with Podemos is through Pablo Iglesias. Diaz and Iglesias have been friends for years, even before the latter launched Podemos in January 2014

Ayuso has changed her slogan to "Communism or Freedom"

https://twitter.com/IdiazAyuso/status/1371421665708609536?s=19

 Looking at her Twitter account, I found out that football player Luis Figo endorses her ("A por ellos y Libertad") and that there is a new pizza called "Madonna Ayuso"

[Skye]

Más Madrid has rejected Pablo Iglesias's offer for a joint list between them and Podemos.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Más Madrid has rejected Pablo Iglesias's offer for a joint list between them and Podemos.

It’s a logical decision, Más Madrid doesn’t have any interest in submitting itself to the smaller party. Also, the electoral system is proportional, so it doesn’t really matter that they run separate lists as long as neither falls below 5% (which is very unlikely due to recent developments), plus joint candidacies tend to not widen the appeal of their electoral space, rather shrinking it; as Podemos-IU alliances have shown time and time again.

[Velasco]

Más Madrid candidate Mónica García says that she has been performing a strong opposition in the Madrid regional assembly and that the time when women were relegated by men has passed. She offers cooperation but vindicates an autonomous project: green, feminist and regionalist

"I am Mónica Garcia, 47 years old. I am a doctor in the public healthcare system and mother. I want to be the next regional president"

https://twitter.com/ierrejon/status/1371773052149710850?s=19

[BigSerg]

e.e
https://twitter.com/vox_es/status/1371890020085293062?s=20

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

e.e
https://twitter.com/vox_es/status/1371890020085293062?s=20

Unless Abbas Khal launches the Re-Reconquista and restores al-Ándalus to its rightful Islamic owners, I’m not interested.

[Skye]

We've gotten 3 new polls for the Community of Madrid, this time from decent pollsters:

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1372070466249166853
https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1372088452561403905
https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1372122248690204673
All three have Ayuso winning easily, but whether she'll get a majority with VOX's seats isn't set in stone. GAD3's poll is exceptionally bad for Cs.

So Podemos did get a bump after Iglesias's announcement, and could overtake Más Madrid

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias have agreed that Yolanda Díaz will continue as Labour Minister,  as well as she will replace Iglesias as Deputy PM. However, Yolanda Díaz will be the Third Deputy PM and not the second. The reason is that granting Diaz the post of Second Deputy PM held by Iglesias would place her above Nadia Calviño, the Minister of Economy. Sánchez deemed an incongruency that that Labour is above Economy in the hierarchy, so Nadia Calviño is upgraded to Second Deputy PM with the task of coordinating the economic policies.  The Podemos MP for Navarra Ione Belarra will replace Pablo Iglesias in the Social Rights and 2030 Agenda portfolios. Worth noting that Yolanda Diaz and Nadia Calviño had had disagreements on issues like minimun wage and labour reform.  However, their differences in the cabinet meetings have not bien aired in public statements.  Much unlike Iglesias, who has been criticized for his tendency to state publicly disagreements with Sánchez and the PSOE in order to mark his territory.

Unless Abbas Khal launches the Re-Reconquista and restores al-Ándalus to its rightful Islamic owners, I’m not interested.

The reestablishment of Al-Andalus Caliphate would be great,  for it would give Santiago Abascal a pretext to mount his horse in full armor like Santiago Matamoros. Don't you find strange that Abascal is going to hold a press statement in a public square? I'd say that looks more like a covert rally.

All three have Ayuso winning easily, but whether she'll get a majority with VOX's seats isn't set in stone. GAD3's poll is exceptionally bad for Cs.

So Podemos did get a bump after Iglesias's announcement, and could overtake Más Madrid

I'd say the hopes of the left pass through Cs falling below threshold. In that case the left could have a slight chance to get more votes than PP and Vox. However, the left needs to mobilize its base at least in a similar degree to the right. i think the hostile bid against Cs will intensify and all the conservative media iutlets are rallying behind Ayuso, so the chances for the left look rather slim. But apparently the move of Iglesias is helping to prevent that the left is going to be crushed, averting the risk of UP falling below threshold. It's still an open match, but the right and the far-right have advantage.

[Former President tack50]

So a nothingburger and nothing we didn't know already from Vox's de facto rally?

Wow

[Skye]

So I averaged the polls that came out after Iglesias's announcement (comparison vs polls previous to that taken this year):

PP: 39% (+4)
PSOE: 25% (-2)
VOX: 11% (-3)
Más Madrid: 10% (-2)
Podemos: 9% (+4)
Cs: 4% (-1)

Coalitions:

PP+VOX: 50.1
Left: 44.4

PP+VOX+Cs: 53.7
Left: 44.4

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Today, the Congress of Deputies overwhelmingly voted to legalize euthanasia, with only PP and Vox opposing a bill drafted by former Health minister María Luisa Carcedo (PSOE). That way, Spain becomes the sixth country in the world to allow the practice. The law’s provisions will be effective three months from now, with the left celebrating its passage as a historic moment.

In Murcia, the motion of no confidence started by C’s and the PSOE, as expected, failed to remove the regional government from power. 21 deputies voted in favor (PSOE 17, Podemos 3, 2 C’s), 23 against (16 PP, 3 ex-C’s, 3 ex-Vox, 1 Vox) and 1 deputy abstained (C’s). The three C’s members that defected will all have seats in the regional cabinet. It is rumored that one of the ex-Vox deputies who at one point negotiated with PSOE and C’s to support the motion will be regional minister for Education.

In the meantime, C’s has been suffering a bout of resignations and defections to the PP since the fiascos in Murcia and Madrid. Aside from Albert Rivera’s former right hand man Francisco Hervías, Valencia regional leader and actor Toni Cantó stepped down from all his political posts and left the party while calling for a PP-C’s alliance for the Madrid regional election. In addition, several senators have also abandoned C’s, but they won’t resign their seats, meaning they won’t be replaced by other C’s candidates on the electoral lists, thus depriving the party of the 6 senators needed to form a Senate parliamentary group; and a deputy in the lower chamber has become an independent, leaving C’s with just 9 seats in the Congress of Deputies.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

BREAKING NEWS: In a rather less exciting twist in Spanish politics, former Madrid regional vice president Ignacio Aguado will not be a candidate in the Madrid regional election. Instead, Congress spokesman Edmundo Bal will represent what remains of C’s, after being anointed in soon-to-be-held primaries.

Probably increases the party’s chances of entering the Assembly, albeit just slightly. A change in candidate means at least one positive piece of news in the sea of negative press C’s has been getting for the past few days, but it isn’t as big of a bombshell as Iglesias’ candidacy was. As for Bal’s personal attributes, he is a combative figure used as an attack dog, as most Congress spokespersons are. Could be a plus, though it most likely will be irrelevant, considering he doesn’t seem to have much name recognition anyways.

[MRCVzla]

To resume some things: PSOE' Castille and Leon censorship motion failed, PP+Cs regional goverment reconfirmed its majority with support of the sole Vox regional MP (Yes 37 -PSOE and UP-, No 41, abstained 3 from UPL, xAvila and a Cs defector). Meanwhile the Murcia city council censorship motion actually worked with a +1 majority of PSOE, Cs and UP (15-14 of PP+Vox), ending with 26 years of PP' administrations in the city.

In Catalan government update, today was the first confidence/investidure motion of current caretaker President Pere Aragonés, and was rejected only having the support of his party ERC and the CUP as Junts will abstain as search a more proper agreement. A second motion will held on Tuesday.

As for the Madrid election... the news of the week is actor Toni Cantó (former UPYD and Cs MP) moving to PP' list as independent more convinced to Ayuso project and dischanted with the Arrimadas one, will be #5 on the list with some controversial around his vote register in Madrid being just days ago the spokeperson of Cs in Valencian Corts. #2 on PP list will be Enrique Ruiz Escudero (Ayuso' Health regional minister).

On PSOE, Gabilondo sells as moderate rejecting any pact with Iglesias and says PSOE+Más Madrid+Cs as his prefered pact. State Secretaries Hana Janoull (as #2) and Irene Lozano (also former UPYD MP like Cantó) will be on the PSOE list as well Senate President Pilar Llop (as #3). Meanwhile in Cs primaries, Edmundo Bal wins without surprises.

Due to the Madrid' electoral law, Pablo Iglesias will left the cabinet next week (he originally planned to left on April 14), this week he resigned as MP and during his last session as 2nd Deputy PM announced a lawsuit against PP #2 García Egea for the "transfúgas" of Murcia. His ministerial post will be taken by Podemos MP and State Secretary Ione Belarra (and Yolanda Díaz will ascend as 3rd Deputy PM).

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Meanwhile the Murcia city council censorship motion actually worked with a +1 majority of PSOE, Cs and UP (15-14 of PP+Vox), ending with 26 years of PP' administrations in the city.

It would be quite something if in addition to giving the mayoralty of Murcia to the PSOE in exchange for nothing, C’s managed to give the left a slim majority in Madrid by narrowly missing the 5% threshold.

[Velasco]

There have been some new developments recently. For instance,  former Cs leading figure Toni Cantó left the party and his home Valencia region to join the PP placed 5th in the list headed by Ayuso.  I feel lazy to make updates these days,  so please tack50  or mimoha post something

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

There have been some new developments recently. For instance,  former Cs leading figure Toni Cantó left the party and his home Valencia region to join the PP placed 5th in the list headed by Ayuso.  I feel lazy to make updates these days,  so please tack50  or mimoha post something

Don't worry, we've got your back! Though MRCVzla has already covered almost everything (welcome to the thread, btw)

[Velasco]

There have been some new developments recently. For instance,  former Cs leading figure Toni Cantó left the party and his home Valencia region to join the PP placed 5th in the list headed by Ayuso.  I feel lazy to make updates these days,  so please tack50  or mimoha post something

Don't worry, we've got your back! Though MRCVzla has already covered almost everything (welcome to the thread, btw)

I didn't read the MRCVzla update,  sorry.

Have you read the article about the clandestine parties today in El País? I have not found it yet in the English edition, but it's amazing and worth reading. Maybe Cantó wants to be where is all the fun in Spain. "Madrid, Land of Freedom  🇪🇸 "

Also, I heard something in previous weeks about differences between PSOE and UP on limits to rent prices,  but I need to get up to date with the news

[Velasco]

Here is the English version of the article. Madrid es una fiesta

https://english.elpais.com/society/2021-03-29/madrids-nightlife-rages-on-despite-pandemic-these-parties-give-me-life.html

 “The party continues at home, like it does every weekend.” It’s Friday night in Madrid’s famous Puerta del Sol square. Three young people are carrying bags filled with bottles of rum. They walk quickly. It’s 11pm, the time when Madrid’s curfew begins and bars and restaurants close. But there’s no sign of people rushing home. Instead, they gather outside the closing bars, eager for the night to continue. Plastic cups and cigarette butts litter the street, and there is lots of singing and hugging. And very few face masks. It’s just another weekend in Madrid, and youngsters are partying like there is no pandemic.

Shortly before these scenes on Friday, the regional premier of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso of the conservative Popular Party (PP), shared a video on Twitter of the owners of well-known bars and restaurants of the capital saying “Madrid is freedom” and “We are more alive than ever.” In Madrid – the region with the least strict coronavirus restrictions in Spain – the incidence rate has been steadily rising since last week, and the 14-day cumulative number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants now stands at 241.12. When the permitted social activity ends, the clandestine parties begin. Once the curfew starts, the most pressing question is: “Where to now?”  

Apparently this election is set to be a PP landslide, given that rightwing voters are much more motivated to turn out than leftwing voters. 7 out of 10 Cs voters in the last regional election would be switching to the PP, while a similar proportion of Vox voters would be willing to rally behind a candidate that speaks in their language (Trumpist rhetoric). On the one hand, Madrid is very different from Catalonia. The demographics of the Cs voters in Madrid make them sociologically right-leaning (middle and upper middle class professionals living in new urban developments, preferently north of the region). On the other hand, there are the root causes that make Madrid a conservative region. There is a considerable concentration of wealth and resources in the Spain's capital,  which region became a major economic centre during the Franco regime. In the last decades, the consecutive PP governments have built power and interest relationships linked to a certain way of life.  The economic and urbanistic development in Madrid has created a middle class aspiring to reach the living standards of US suburbia. Lower taxes or fiscal dumping,  alongside being the capital,  give Madrid competitive advantages with regard other Spanish regions. Ayuso is selling  "freedom" (her opponents call it "selfishness") and a different way of life.  That's a powerful message and the left is lacking motivation and compelling counter narratives.

[Velasco]

PCE secretary-general and lawyer Enrique Santiago has been appointed Secretary of State* for the Agenda 2030,  replacing the new minister of Social Rights Ione Belarra (Podemos). Pablo Iglesias quotes a Bertolt Brecht poem called 'Praise of Fighters' (1930) while regarding his friend Santiago among The Indispensable Ones

https://twitter.com/PabloIglesias/status/1376606084752871425?s=19

* In Spain, a Secretary of State is the person in charge of a department of the government, with a rank akin to a vice minister

[Estrella]

snippity snip

I've been wondering about something kind of related to this. Spain seems to have a system where right does better with middle and upper class even though it's based on the old-fashioned principle of "God, King and Country". Is there a significant disconnect between voters and party elites or is your typical Madileño suburbanite as reactionary as they seem? If so, is it just on the issue of national unity/Catalonia, or does it extend to "social issues"?

[Velasco]

snippity snip

I've been wondering about something kind of related to this. Spain seems to have a system where right does better with middle and upper class even though it's based on the old-fashioned principle of "God, King and Country". Is there a significant disconnect between voters and party elites or is your typical Madileño suburbanite as reactionary as they seem? If so, is it just on the issue of national unity/Catalonia, or does it extend to "social issues"?

In what concerns "God, King and Country" I have to tell you Spanish society is mainly secular. I think all the Mediterranean countries with a strong Catholic tradition (i.e. Italy and France) have had a process of secularization with their particular circumstances. Anyway the conflict between economic openness (Stabilization Plan, 1959) and the oppressive national-catholic regime in Spain resulted in increasing secularization. Of course there exist religious fundamentalist elements (Opus Dei, Camino Neocatecumenal or "Kikos") that are very rightwing. This ultra catholic sector currently supports Vox or PP and apparently it's one of the main pillars of the conservative system of power in Murcia (through UCAM university), alongside landowners and builders. But focusing on the middle class professionals living in new urban developments around Madrid, a fishing ground for Cs in recent times, they are mostly secular thus not "socially conservative" in the surface. I mean, you can see Cs members in a demonstration in in favour of the LGTB rights,  even though they had incidents with activists due to their relationship with Vox in Madrid or Andalusia and have that strange fixation with 'altruist' surrogacy. But regardless what I said about the long term failure of the national-catholic regime, I think that leading politicians can influence their voters. There is a clear shift to the right and a radicalization partly triggered by Albert Rivera or Pablo Casado. The latter are staunch supporters of national unity and monarchy,  but they never speak of godly affairs (nor does Santiago Abascal, who attacks 'gay lobbies' or feminists instead). Murcia could be the first Spanish region with a far-right minister, as the members of the regional assembly expelled from Vox are demanding the Education portfolio, in order to implement parental veto on LGTB issues and "leftist indoctrination". I don't think the Cs traitors awarded with cabinet posts by premier López Miras are in a position to oppose such designs, in case they were concerned. As said earlier, Catholic fundamentalism is relatively strong and influential in Murcia. These elements are also present in Madrid and Vox suoports their agenda,  but it's up to see if Rocío Monasterio and her co-relogionists will join a government led by Isabel Díaz Ayuso and the amount of their influence.  The likely Cs vanishment implies that Vox is the only possible coalition or confidence and supply partner. I fear the "moderates" within the rightwing bloc will be the enablers of the most reactionary agendas. In short: I don't think the average centre-right suburbanite in Madrid is staunchly reactionary, but there is a process of radicalization in a context of polarization triggered (in my opinion) by certain leaders and media outlets.

On a side note Cs days are apparently numbered,  but oranges make clear that they reject coalitions with the left and seek new deals with Ayuso.

[Mike88]

So, the second Investiture vote for Pere Aragonès failed. New negotiations will start. The main clash between ERC and Junts seems to be Puigdemont role in the future government. Parties now have until May 26 to avoid new elections.

[Velasco]

So, the second Investiture vote for Pere Aragonès failed. New negotiations will start. The main clash between ERC and Junts seems to be Puigdemont role in the future government. Parties now have until May 26 to avoid new elections.

The role of Puigdemont through an instrument called "Council of the Republic". Yet another episode of the perennial struggle within the pro-independence bloc. In the end ERC and JxCAT will reach an agreement, in order to prevent that Salvador Illa and the PSC get more votes and seats in a new election

[Mike88]

So, the second Investiture vote for Pere Aragonès failed. New negotiations will start. The main clash between ERC and Junts seems to be Puigdemont role in the future government. Parties now have until May 26 to avoid new elections.

The role of Puigdemont through an instrument called "Council of the Republic". Yet another episode of the perennial struggle within the ñro-independence bloc. In the end ERC and JxCAT will reach an agreement, in order to prevent that Salvador Illa and the PSC get more votes and seats in a new election

Maybe, but I'm not going to underestimate the incompetence of parties, especially in Spain, that go against their own interests.