Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

normal EU liberals must avoid contact with the far-right.

To be fair, there doesn’t seem to be a completely coherent position within the European liberals with regards to the far-right. While it is true that some Renew Europe parties maintain a cordon sanitaire policy, the Finnish and Estonian Centre parties, Venstre in Denmark and VVD in the Netherlands (among others) have all in recent times governed with support from, or even in coalition with, so-called far-right parties (the Finns Party, EKRE, the Danish People’s Party and the Party for Freedom, respectively).

You can do like Italy and simply have no liberal parties. Well, we actually have, but all of them are so small and useless and not comparable to anything you mentioned nor even Ciudadanos. But just in case, the current government includes both Italia Viva and Lega, so there you have it (although obviously it is a "national unity" government so it is a bit special).

[Velasco]

normal EU liberals must avoid contact with the far-right.

To be fair, there doesn’t seem to be a completely coherent position within the European liberals with regards to the far-right. While it is true that some Renew Europe parties maintain a cordon sanitaire policy, the Finnish and Estonian Centre parties, Venstre in Denmark and VVD in the Netherlands (among others) have all in recent times governed with support from, or even in coalition with, so-called far-right parties (the Finns Party, EKRE, the Danish People’s Party and the Party for Freedom, respectively).

You can do like Italy and simply have no liberal parties. Well, we actually have, but all of them are so small and useless and not comparable to anything you mentioned nor even Ciudadanos. But just in case, the current government includes both Italia Viva and Lega, so there you have it (although obviously it is a "national unity" government so it is a bit special).

I suspect that Italy is, once again, the political laboratory of Europe and it's going some steps ahead. Technocratic governments of "national unity" could be the normal in the near future. I don't see it for Spain in the short term, but everything points that Spain will be fully ungovernable in the mid term

I wish that Spanish "liberals", and the moderate right in general, would have seen themselves in the mirror of Angela Merkel

[Mike88]

Another poll:

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1370504792754257927

[Former President tack50]

normal EU liberals must avoid contact with the far-right.

To be fair, there doesn’t seem to be a completely coherent position within the European liberals with regards to the far-right. While it is true that some Renew Europe parties maintain a cordon sanitaire policy, the Finnish and Estonian Centre parties, Venstre in Denmark and VVD in the Netherlands (among others) have all in recent times governed with support from, or even in coalition with, so-called far-right parties (the Finns Party, EKRE, the Danish People’s Party and the Party for Freedom, respectively).

You can do like Italy and simply have no liberal parties. Well, we actually have, but all of them are so small and useless and not comparable to anything you mentioned nor even Ciudadanos. But just in case, the current government includes both Italia Viva and Lega, so there you have it (although obviously it is a "national unity" government so it is a bit special).

For what is worth, I had a discussion yesterday with someone and I summed up Italy's government as saying the equivalent here would be to have PM Luis de Guindos, under a PSOE-UP-Vox coalition

[Former President tack50]

Also looking at polling it seems the priors are correct and PP will be the great winner of this. Cs has decided to commit suicide (RIP) while the parties of the left are basically stable (though I would expect UP to be comfortably above the threshold, not super close to it?)

I guess the question will be whether PP-Vox get a majority or not, how does Vox perform relative to expectations (I think Ayuso has sucked out most of the right wing oxygen in Madrid so Vox is in for a relatively tough election where they need to keep low expectations) and perhaps how close can PP get to an overall majority, especially if UP falls below the theshold

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

normal EU liberals must avoid contact with the far-right.

To be fair, there doesn’t seem to be a completely coherent position within the European liberals with regards to the far-right. While it is true that some Renew Europe parties maintain a cordon sanitaire policy, the Finnish and Estonian Centre parties, Venstre in Denmark and VVD in the Netherlands (among others) have all in recent times governed with support from, or even in coalition with, so-called far-right parties (the Finns Party, EKRE, the Danish People’s Party and the Party for Freedom, respectively).

You can do like Italy and simply have no liberal parties. Well, we actually have, but all of them are so small and useless and not comparable to anything you mentioned nor even Ciudadanos. But just in case, the current government includes both Italia Viva and Lega, so there you have it (although obviously it is a "national unity" government so it is a bit special).

For what is worth, I had a discussion yesterday with someone and I summed up Italy's government as saying the equivalent here would be to have PM Luis de Guindos, under a PSOE-UP-Vox coalition

Well kind of. Of course there is no perfect approximation, but I view Vox as more comparable to FdI than to Lega, because of centralism, relations to post-fascist legacy, and electorate sociology. And Guindos is a party figure, differently from Draghi.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Also looking at polling it seems the priors are correct and PP will be the great winner of this. Cs has decided to commit suicide (RIP) while the parties of the left are basically stable (though I would expect UP to be comfortably above the threshold, not super close to it?)

I guess the question will be whether PP-Vox get a majority or not, how does Vox perform relative to expectations (I think Ayuso has sucked out most of the right wing oxygen in Madrid so Vox is in for a relatively tough election where they need to keep low expectations) and perhaps how close can PP get to an overall majority, especially if UP falls below the theshold

I mean, it seems to me that the recent history of C's is a big collection of suicide attempts.

PP-Vox not getting a majority would mean Ayuso being sacked and a PSOE-Más-Podemos coalition government, right? Unless C's resuscitates somehow.

[Former President tack50]

Also looking at polling it seems the priors are correct and PP will be the great winner of this. Cs has decided to commit suicide (RIP) while the parties of the left are basically stable (though I would expect UP to be comfortably above the threshold, not super close to it?)

I guess the question will be whether PP-Vox get a majority or not, how does Vox perform relative to expectations (I think Ayuso has sucked out most of the right wing oxygen in Madrid so Vox is in for a relatively tough election where they need to keep low expectations) and perhaps how close can PP get to an overall majority, especially if UP falls below the theshold

I mean, it seems to me that the recent history of C's is a big collection of suicide attempts.

PP-Vox not getting a majority would mean Ayuso being sacked and a PSOE-Más-Podemos coalition government, right? Unless C's resuscitates somehow.

Yeah, if PP-Vox don't get a majority and Cs doesn't make the threshold then yeah, a left wing PSOE-MM-UP government will easily be formed; I just don't think it is a super likely proposition (though not impossible)

The interesting scenario would be if neither the 3 parties of the left nor PP-Vox get a majority and Cs is needed to form a government. Of course, you first need Cs to make the threshold

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Also looking at polling it seems the priors are correct and PP will be the great winner of this. Cs has decided to commit suicide (RIP) while the parties of the left are basically stable (though I would expect UP to be comfortably above the threshold, not super close to it?)

I guess the question will be whether PP-Vox get a majority or not, how does Vox perform relative to expectations (I think Ayuso has sucked out most of the right wing oxygen in Madrid so Vox is in for a relatively tough election where they need to keep low expectations) and perhaps how close can PP get to an overall majority, especially if UP falls below the theshold

I mean, it seems to me that the recent history of C's is a big collection of suicide attempts.

PP-Vox not getting a majority would mean Ayuso being sacked and a PSOE-Más-Podemos coalition government, right? Unless C's resuscitates somehow.

Yeah, if PP-Vox don't get a majority and Cs doesn't make the threshold then yeah, a left wing PSOE-MM-UP government will easily be formed; I just don't think it is a super likely proposition (though not impossible)

The interesting scenario would be if neither the 3 parties of the left nor PP-Vox get a majority and Cs is needed to form a government. Of course, you first need Cs to make the threshold

I fully agree. My assumption about C's is that it will side with the right bloc until proven otherwise, but who knows.

As an aside, I have just noticed that there is ample potential for jokes from the fact that Ayuso bears the same first name as the most famous Queen of Castille and Spain, lol.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Fran Hervías, a C's senator who was a key member of Albert Rivera's leadership team as secretary for organization, has resigned from the party and from his seat in the chamber, issuing a mild-mannered statement clearly in line with the "Let's end the Spain of reds and blues" rhetoric of his old boss's era at the helm. Here's an excerpt:

"Spain is governed by a gang whose only objective is annihilating our constitutional system. Our country debates itself between being a nation of free citizens and the rupture and chaos of Sanchism, between those of us who love Spain and those who want to annihilate it, between those of us who defend the constitutional system and those who seek to destroy it."

[Velasco]

Financial Times reports about the 'libertarian' regime of Ayuso in Madrid. Apparently some French folks are scaping to the Spanish capital in search of fiesta. Read the full article for a complete picture

https://www.ft.com/content/3b5bc5cc-ce88-44c5-91c9-20d1034e1d99

   Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
   https://www.ft.com/content/3b5bc5cc-ce88-44c5-91c9-20d1034e1d99

A new French generation is heading to Spain, the land that sent Napoleon packing but inspired Édouard Manet, Georges Bizet and Gustave Doré.

Young people from north of the border are pouring into the heart of Madrid, packing the terraces of cafés, wandering through fashionable streets and booking Airbnbs. Their goal? To have a good time — pasarlo bien — and to enjoy life’s diversions in ways not possible at home (...)


Not so in Spain. After imposing one of the world’s toughest lockdowns between March and June last year — during which children were banned for 45 days from venturing outdoors — the country has steered clear of orders to stay at home. Instead, the central government has largely relied on the regions to put their own policies in place against the pandemic’s second and third waves. After a frightening high level of infections in January, rates have been falling for weeks.

Even so, Madrid stands out for its relaxed approach. The centre-right head of the region’s government, Isabel Díaz Ayuso — one of the country’s most polarising political figures — has vowed that the hospitality industry will not be ruined on her watch. So while in Catalonia restaurant dining is prohibited from 5pm, in Madrid you can eat out until 11pm. On sunny weekends, the plazas are full of families and friends nibbling on tapas or ordering la penúltima — the last-but-one drink.
(...)

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Madrid has the highest infection rates in mainland Spain, although case numbers are about a quarter of the level of five weeks ago.

For all the street life in Madrid, people are not permitted to have a friend drop round at home and parties are emphatically forbidden. But the fiestas happen all the same, with an average of almost 400 closed down by the city’s police every weekend, often in tourist apartments (...)  

[Former President tack50]

Financial Times reports about the 'libertarian' regime of Ayuso in Madrid. Apparently some French folks are scaping to the Spanish capital in search of fiesta. Read the full article for a complete picture

https://www.ft.com/content/3b5bc5cc-ce88-44c5-91c9-20d1034e1d99

   Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
   https://www.ft.com/content/3b5bc5cc-ce88-44c5-91c9-20d1034e1d99

A new French generation is heading to Spain, the land that sent Napoleon packing but inspired Édouard Manet, Georges Bizet and Gustave Doré.

Young people from north of the border are pouring into the heart of Madrid, packing the terraces of cafés, wandering through fashionable streets and booking Airbnbs. Their goal? To have a good time — pasarlo bien — and to enjoy life’s diversions in ways not possible at home (...)


Not so in Spain. After imposing one of the world’s toughest lockdowns between March and June last year — during which children were banned for 45 days from venturing outdoors — the country has steered clear of orders to stay at home. Instead, the central government has largely relied on the regions to put their own policies in place against the pandemic’s second and third waves. After a frightening high level of infections in January, rates have been falling for weeks.

Even so, Madrid stands out for its relaxed approach. The centre-right head of the region’s government, Isabel Díaz Ayuso — one of the country’s most polarising political figures — has vowed that the hospitality industry will not be ruined on her watch. So while in Catalonia restaurant dining is prohibited from 5pm, in Madrid you can eat out until 11pm. On sunny weekends, the plazas are full of families and friends nibbling on tapas or ordering la penúltima — the last-but-one drink.
(...)

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Madrid has the highest infection rates in mainland Spain, although case numbers are about a quarter of the level of five weeks ago.

For all the street life in Madrid, people are not permitted to have a friend drop round at home and parties are emphatically forbidden. But the fiestas happen all the same, with an average of almost 400 closed down by the city’s police every weekend, often in tourist apartments (...)  

When France sends its people, they are not sending their best

[Velasco]

Headlines for the new issue of the Voter in Madrid magazine

● Socialism or Freedom: the two major trends for the next spring

_{"Socialism or Freedom" is the battlefield slogan of Ayuso}

● Left-wing parties: discover the new splits for this season

● Do you remember... the centre-right: a political trend nearly as extinct as the highball glass

● Dossier: professions for the future ( the first 20 jobs are waiter or waitress)

● Crash course in French (hospitality level)

https://twitter.com/_infoLibre/status/1370324956601581574?s=19

[Skye]

Madrid will have elections on May 4.

https://twitter.com/PoderJudicialEs/status/1371122302000242691

[Velasco]

Alea jacta est

[Skye]

A political earthquake is happening live.

Pablo Iglesias will leave the government and will be the Podemos candidate for the presidency of the Community of Madrid:

https://twitter.com/el_pais/status/1371420505346048000

Bets? Podemos is, according to polls, on the verge of being left out of the Assembly. Now that Iglesias will be their candidate, it's very much likely that their numbers will surge. How much, it remains in question. Will Podemos overtake Más Madrid?

[Former President tack50]

Spanish politics might be many things, but "boring" surely is not one of them

A political earthquake is happening live.

Pablo Iglesias will leave the government and will be the Podemos candidate for the presidency of the Community of Madrid:

Bets? Podemos is, according to polls, on the verge of being left out of the Assembly. Now that Iglesias will be their candidate, it's very much likely that their numbers will surge. How much, it remains in question. Will Podemos overtake Más Madrid?

I wouldn't be so sure that UP will surge up. If I am not mistaken, Pablo Iglesias is a rather unpopular leader, even among UP supporters he has mediocre approvals.

To be honest I don't know how people will react to this but one thing is for sure, Yolanda Díaz will be the UP candidate at the next general election (pretty much the only palatable UP candidate anyways)

[Skye]

I wouldn't be so sure that UP will surge up. If I am not mistaken, Pablo Iglesias is a rather unpopular leader, even among UP supporters he has mediocre approvals.

Sure, I don't mean to argue that now that he's the candidate, he'll threaten Gabilondo's position or something. I'm referring more to the fact that Podemos is polling at just 5% ATM. Anything lower than that and Podemos will be left out of the Assembly and Iglesias can kiss his political career goodbye. Not that anything just *slightly* better than that will be a good result for him. Which is probably why he's asking for a coalition with Más Madrid:

https://twitter.com/Miquel_R/status/1371420381626634247

[Mike88]

Weird move by Iglesias. Don't know his real motives, but my hunch is that he wanted to leave the government, for a long time now, as the relation between him and Sanchéz is going from bad to worse, not to mention between PSOE and UP. Plus, after the PSOE and C's disastrous attempt to remove the Murcia premier and failed attempt to avoid an election in Madrid, Iglesias may think that he can wound Sanchéz in this election by weakening the PSOE candidate and dividing the left vote, as he has no chance of winning. However, like Tack said, Iglesias isn't that popular within UP and outside of it, thus this move by Iglesias could backfire.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Weird move by Iglesias. Don't know his real motives, but my hunch is that he wanted to leave the government, for a long time now, as the relation between him and Sanchéz is going from bad to worse, not to mention between PSOE and UP. Plus, after the PSOE and C's disastrous attempt to remove the Murcia premier and failed attempt to avoid an election in Madrid, Iglesias may think that he can wound Sanchéz in this election by weakening the PSOE candidate and dividing the left vote, as he has no chance of winning. However, like Tack said, Iglesias isn't that popular within UP and outside of it, thus this move by Iglesias could backfire.

The move of leaving the government has been in the making for some time now, but the motivation wasn’t conflicts within the cabinet, it was to set up Yolanda Díaz as Iglesias’s successor. She is now going to be the new UP deputy PM and in all likelihood its candidate in the next general election, which; again, was already planned for and was bound to happen at some point during the current parliament.

It happened now because the leadership saw the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone: in addition clearing the question of Pablo Iglesias’s succession, they are staving off the prospect of falling below the threshold in Madrid with a stronger candidate. Essentially, Ayuso’s decision to call snap regional election has precipitated events.

[Velasco]

Some analysts say Iglesias made a mastery move, worthy of Baron Noir. Personally I am speechless and don't know what to think. UP was lacking a candidate and polls say it's in serious peril, while Errejón rejected a unitary list. The failed attempt to overturn an entrenched a system of regional power, sustained by the agraricultural property, the real estate business and tCatholic fundamentalists (San Antonio Catholic University) has triggered a perfect political storm. We are at the Ihe Ides of March. It's clear to me that Ayuso and whoever is behind her have the intent to anihilate Cs and humiliate the left in Madrid. Pablo Casado is already the hostage of Ayuso and Vox. Madrid could become a vector of instability as serious as Catalonia for the years to come.

What will be the next steps of Inés Arrimadas and Íñigo Errejón?

As for the motion in Murcia, leaving aside the miscalculation of PSOE and Cs (R.I.P), it's fascinating to read the chronicles telling the story of how the Cs traitors were bought

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1371565169692794880?s=20

[Velasco]

Bold move of Pablo Iglesias at the Ides of March

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2021-03-15/deputy-pm-pablo-iglesias-makes-surprise-move-to-run-in-the-madrid-regional-elections.html

What began as a power play in one of Spain’s smaller regions last week has snowballed into a series of unexpected moves and counter-moves that are changing the country’s political landscape.

In the most recent development, Spain’s second Deputy Prime Minister Pablo Iglesias, who is the leader of the leftist Unidas Podemos party, on Monday morning said he is quitting the Socialist Party-led coalition government in order to run as the Podemos candidate in an early election announced for the Madrid region.

Iglesias said he made the decision “to prevent the far right from taking over the institutions.” He added that he will be reaching out to Íñigo Errejón, leader of the leftist Más País and one of the original founders of Podemos, to make a joint run for the regional premiership in order to defeat the incumbent, Isabel Díaz Ayuso of the Popular Party (PP).  

Más Madrid candidate Mónica García says that she's open to talk, but MM folks are not going to feel comfortable locked in a room with Pablo Iglesias. Abyway, regardless the outcome, this is the departure of the charismatic leader and founder of Podemos. UP under Yolanda Diaz will be a very different organization. Remember that she is not a Podemos member, but a member of the PCE. Pedro Sánchez says there will be continuity in the government with Yolanda Diaz as deputy PM, but socialists are puzzled. The elections in Madrid are not merely regional and the polarization will be extreme

[Former President tack50]

Electomania is far from the most reputable pollster (technically it is not even a pollster), but lol at the Ayuso landslide. Not sure how to react if that ends up as the result 

An overall majority in a region that has a rather proportional system, well past the days of the old 2 party system, that while conservative isn't Murcia levels of conservative, is very polarized and has a premier that while popular with half of Madrid is also despised by the other half (Ayuso is not the kind of unifying figure that people like Feijoo in Galicia or Fernandez Vara in Extremadura can be) would be absolutely insane.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

UP under Yolanda Diaz will be a very different organization. Remember that she is not a Podemos member, but a member of the PCE.

Could you elaborate on this? What is the internal culture of the PCE these days?