Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Mike88]

I'm not a fan of Sanchéz at all, but at least he's reacting to the raising cost of living and doing something about it unlike his neighbor country, which the government says, over and over again, that it cannot reduce VAT on several products without EU permition, while Spain is doing that without any worries. The difference in gas prices is around 30-40 cents between Portugal and Spain, and we still pay 23% of VAT on electricity, with reduced taxes of 6% and 13% for small outputs, which in some cases would only let a few items work, lol.

Watermelons and cherries prices vary, of course, between places, but from what I've seen when I go out shooping, cherries are around 6 euros per kilo and watermelons cost at around 9 euros per unit. Of course, much more expensive here as we earn half of what the Spanish earn.

Ironically, gasoline prices in Spain have now tied Portugal's which is historically an anomally as we used to have lower prices.

I believe that in the prices displayed in gas stations, the prices are similar but then there's the discount provided by the Spanish government in fuel prices, 20 cents I believe, plus fuel companies also provide a discount, at least this is what this report says. Thus, the final difference in cost is still around 30 cents.

Reducing VAT is not enough and the government needs to compensate the loss of revenues. I concur with Rufián and others that we need to tax the rich and the energy companies

Sure, that's another discussion, but at least he's reacting and doing something to help poorer and middle class families especially with energy costs.

[Mike88]

GAD3 poll: PP reaches 36% of the votes, while Vox falls to 13% and UP bellow 10%.

https://twitter.com/ElElectoral/status/1546421707573018624

GAD3: The PP shoots up after the Andalusians and extends its advantage over the PSOE to the largest since 2017

[Mike88]

It seems that a split in Vox is becoming inevitable. Macarena Olona could be on the verge of leaving the party.

[Mike88]

Catalonia regional government in risk of collapse as Junts members vote to leave the government:

https://twitter.com/elmundoes/status/1578405226205290497

The bases of Junts per Catalunya decide to leave the Government

Junts membership voted to leave the coalition government with ERC in Catalonia. According to the party, 55.7% of members voted to leave the government, while 42.3% voted to remain. The party is deeply divided on what to and the party's leadership is now discussing what can be done, with the possibility of splits within the party also on the table. This means that the current regional government could be on the verge of collapse after months of war between ERC and Junts. Junts doesn't like ERC's more institutional approach to independence and prefers a more radical and unilateral approach. The tensions escalated a few weeks ago when Pete Aragonès, Generalitat President, sacked his Junts deputy because of a motion of no confidence vote, proposed by Junts, against the government.

[Mike88]

The seemingly obvious answer would be for the ERC to ask for support from the PSC, but no idea if that type of government is even a feasible option anymore.

The alternative, other than snap elections, indeed is a ERC-PSC-En Comú coalition, but, yeah, I don't kown if there's will for it, specially in PSC, who in a possible snap election could emerge with a stronger share and reach the Generalitat Presidency.

[Mike88]

Behold, Cs new logo. Political party or software developer?

It seems that Ciudadanos is still downloading.

Anyway, some updates from Spain:

- Castilla y León is in the middle of a dispute between PP and Vox surrounding Abortion. Vox, PP's coalition partner in the region, wants to force pregnant women to hear the fetus heart and make a 4D ultrasound. This is creating a big dispute between the two parties, with PP refusing to accept this proposal and Vox threatening to tear up the coalition. The PSOE-UP minority government is also threatening Vox with the Courts. There's the possibility that Castilla y León may go the polls, again, next May;

- This Saturday, a big rally against Pedro Sanchéz government was held in Madrid:

https://twitter.com/Cibeles21E/status/1616767841973190656

The rally, which had the support of Vox, also had the presence of C's leader Inés Arrimadas. Few PP national leaders were in the rally, even though PP leader Núñez Feijóo highlighted that the protest was serene and that it defended the Constitution.

[Mike88]

Vox sure looks desperate for proposing a motion of censorship in an election year. This seems more like a "stunt" to embarrass PP and Feijóo, but a ridiculous one. Polls in Madrid still put Villacís with some share and seats, but after this "fling" with PP, not sure if those numbers will hold up for her.

The "solo sí es sí" fiasco is just... ridiculous. I honestly have difficulty commenting on it because it's such a serious issue and it was handled like... I'm speechless. It's just ridiculous and sad.

[Mike88]

In other news, Isabel Díaz Ayuso commemorated the Holocaust by comparing Nazi Germany to Spain under Pedro Sánchez, and the ex-communist mummy Vox wants to put up against Pedro Sánchez gave an interview the other day. When asked about whether his age was an impediment in case of the motion of no confidence succeeding, he pointed to the good health of his 95-year old mentor Juan Velarde, who died hours after the interview.

Karma is a b***h.

Also, C's trainwreck continues:

- Earlier today, it was reported that Begoña Villacís, C's councillor in Madrid and deputy mayor, would not be the party's candidate in the local elections because she hadn't gather enough endorsements;

- But, a few hours later, it was announced she would indeed be the party's candidate because... there was literally no one else to run.

[Mike88]

Motion of no confidence

In reaction to the government betraying Spain, selling the nation off to ETA, torning the Constitution into shreds etc. (in other words, negotiating with ERC the abrogation of the crime of sedition and the reform of embezzlement in exchange for continued parliamentary support), Vox has decided to table a constructive vote of no confidence against Pedro Sánchez in the near future. Much like the one tabled in 2020 by the same party, it is doomed to fail and will purely be an exercise in mediocre theatrics (although PP and C's will probably back it this time), the only surprising thing being the candidate put forward.

Two years after feigning concern for old people by comparing the supposed amount of state subsidies the average underage immigrant and your granny receive, Vox has decided to abuse a poor old man by making him the motion's candidate. The rotting corpse in question is Ramón Tamames, a veteran from the Punic Wars (I'm joking of course, I mean from the drafting of the Constitution. No, not the 1812 one; the 1978 one) and prominent PCE member during the Spanish transition to democracy who has since drifted towards the "center" (canned laughter). He is now apparently willing to become Vox's kamikaze bomber against the government in this hopeless parliamentary maneuver, playing the role of symbol (or rather relic) of the decent left that was destroyed by "Dr." Evil in 2017.
(...)

Vox "cuckoo bananas" motion of no confidence will go ahead:

Santiago Abascal, Vox leader, has presented this Monday afternoon the party's motion of no confidence against the Sanchéz government. The party's candidate for the motion is Ramón Tamames, 89 years old, and Abascal is confident that PP will, in the end, vote in favour of the motion. He added that if the motion passes, he will propose general elections for May 28th, the same day of the local and regional elections.

PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo has already stated that the party will not support Vox's motion, adding that the candidate itself has little or no respect. The party, however, hasn't specify, yet, if it will abstain or vote against.

[Mike88]

Ciudadanos poster for the local elections in May:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1635999781406294017

Begoña Villacís kicks off the pre-campaign with a giant canvas that reads 'Madrid D.C.' along with a message in which she invites the people of Madrid to write to her team via Whatsapp.

"Shall we meet?"

Madrid D.C.? Does that mean Madrid Después de Ciudadanos?

[Mike88]

Deputy PM Yolanda Díaz presents her candidacy for the General elections, Sumar+, but divisions between her and Podemos are "haunting" the announcement:

https://twitter.com/rtvenoticias/status/1642501678661357570

Yolanda Díaz launches her candidacy: "I want to be the first female president of my country, the first female president of Spain"

"I want to be the first female president of my country," says the leader of Sumar, who has presented the guidelines for a new "bill of rights" for the next decade, surrounded by a dozen political forces, but without Podemos.

Yolanda Díaz has made the leap this Sunday as a candidate for the presidency of the Government. “Today I am going to take a step forward, I want to be the first female president of Spain. Because it is the time of women, because we women want to be the protagonists of history ”, the leader of Sumar announced in a speech in which she recognized that she was “tired of guardianships ”. After more than two years of waiting, those that separate her announcement from the appointment by Pablo Iglesias as successor, and nine months after beginning her tour of Spain to "listen" to the public, the vice president presented the program lines this afternoon of his project, defined as a new "bill of rights" and a democratic, economic and social "contract" for the Spain of the "next decade".

In front of a crowded sports center in the heart of Madrid -with more than 3,000 people inside and another 2,000 who followed the act through external screens, according to the organization-, Díaz has officially assumed the challenge before the next general election and puts herself like this in front of the electoral space to the left of the PSOE, still with many doubts in the air. The main one, the fit of Podemos in the future candidacy. For the moment, the same party that appointed her 24 months ago has decided to be absent from the photo in front of the support of more than a dozen organizations that supported the vice president on Sunday.
(...)

[Mike88]

Tensions between Sumar and Podemos continue as both sides aren't talking, and Podemos is warning Díaz about the consequences of ignoring Podemos and dividing the leftwing vote. The first polls after the launch of Sumar are starting to be published and they are showing a divided leftwing vote, while the rightwing seems to be benefiting by the splits on the left:

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo newspaper, 2 scenario poll:
https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1645339975951556610

NC Report for La Razon newspaper:
https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1645307054171516928

Sociométrica for El Español newspaper:
https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1645043456820015104

Local elections are to held in a month and a half, 28 May 2023.

[Mike88]

The first polls after the launch of Sumar are starting to be published and they are showing a divided leftwing vote, while the rightwing seems to be benefiting by the splits on the left:

It has gone under the radar over here, since this thread is rather quiet, but PP + Vox have actually been in potential majority range for quite a while. So I doubt a split left has dramatically changed that arithmetic, other than perhaps denying the both of them seats in some of the smaller constituencies.

I try to update this thread when ever I can, even though Spain is basically non existent in the news in my country. Yes, PP+Vox are holding on in the majority zone for some time now, although it's not clear how that majority would actually work. From what I've been reading from Spanish newspaper, PP is actually lowering expectations regarding the local elections as polls don't show a strong coalescence of rightwing voters in PP, which could complicate things for government formations after the elections.

A split left, specially if PSOE falls to the levels these polls are suggesting, could benefit the rightwing mainly in those smaller constituencies, and Spain has a lot of them. We'll see what happens in the local elections.

Podemos will cry, scream and drag their feet until the end but the reality of the electoral system and pressure from PSOE and leftist organisations will eventually force them to run together.

Probably. But, Podemos as we know it would die, just like C's. It's interesting to see that the two parties that literally "broke" the old Spanish political system after 2015, are slowly disappearing.

[Mike88]

The "agony" of Podemos continues:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1647491877736706051

6 seats...

[Mike88]

In a month, 28 May, local elections and 14 regional elections will be held. A quick summary of the current state of the main local and regional races:

Local elections, main cities:

- Madrid: PP is set to win the most votes this time around, but a majority of its own is still in doubt;

- Barcelona: Xavier Trias, Junts candidate, could return to his old job as Mayor of Barcelona (2011-15). He's currently leading the polls and Colau could be forced out of office;

- Valencia: PP is also expected to become the largest party, but it's unclear if they will have the votes to win back the city as polls show a close race between PP-Vox and Compromís-PSPV;

- Seville: Too close to call. PSOE and PP are neck and neck in the polls and the outcome is completely open;

- Zaragoza: PP is set, again, to become the largest party but a majority is shaky. Polls suggest that it's much more likely the PP to retain control of the city then to lose it, but it could be by a narrow margin;

- Vigo: Well, another coronation for Abel Caballero;

Regional elections:

- Madrid: Another Ayuso landslide with the only doubt being if she will get a majority of her own or not;

- Valencia: Too close to call. PP is basically certain to become the largest party, but the PSPV-Compromís-UP alliance is basically tied with PP-Vox;

- Aragon: Spain's "Ohio" is also too close to call. PP is ahead of PSOE in the polls, but a majority is complicated. Teruel Existe could become the kingmaker;

- Extremadura: This race has tightened a lot lately although PSOE still has an edge. However, it seems certain that the Socialists will lose their majority;

- Castilla–La Mancha: Another one too close to call. PSOE leads PP by a narrow margin, but a PP-Vox alliance could steal this region from the PSOE, which currently has a majority;

- Canary Islands: PSOE has an edge here and it's likely to retain the government of the islands. However, a CC-PP alliance is "hitting on the heels" of the PSOE-NC-UP alliance;

- Baleares: PP is set to become the largest party, but a majority is in doubt. El Pi, a regional liberal party, could become the kingmaker at the end of the day;

- Asturias: PSOE is certain to retain control of the region, even though PP is surging in the latest polls;

So, a lot of close races to watch.

[Mike88]

- Madrid: Another Ayuso landslide with the only doubt being if she will get a majority of her own or not;

Not true, whether Podemos is shut out of the Assembly or not is still an open question.

Well, if Podemos is booted out of the Assembly, than she will definitely have her majority.

[Mike88]

So the C's to VOX and PP swing is old news by now, but can someone more in the know explain TxB? A cursory glace around says it's specifically anti-Comu.

It's a Junts (JxCat) led coalition, which has as candidate former mayor Xavier Trias.

[Mike88]

Polls in general seem to be very favourable to the PP, but I would advise to take them with a grain of salt due to Spain's tradition of polling fiascoes.

My opinion about the whole Bildu thing is that it's very slippery slope. ETA may be dead and buried but the scars are still present in many parts of Spain. I don't think the PSOE did well by negotiating bills with them in Parliament, nor is the PP right by bringing up ETA, ETA, ETA from time to time to attack the PSOE. It's a very complicated issue.

[Mike88]

. My opinion about the whole Bildu thing is that it's very slippery slope. ETA may be dead and buried but the scars are still present in many parts of Spain. I don't think the PSOE did well by negotiating bills with them in Parliament, nor is the PP right by bringing up ETA, ETA, ETA from time to time to attack the PSOE. It's a very complicated issue.

It sounds like a reasonable take. I don't like Bildu very much because of that legacy. Anyway it should be noted that EH  Bildu is a coalition that incorporates not only the heirs of Batasuna (the alleged political wing), but also people that were vocal against ETA within the left-wing pro-inndependence camp. Said this, I think the involvement of the separatist ERC and Bildu in national politics is a positive development. Politics is about negotiating with people with visions and perspectives different from ours, sometimes with people in opposite camps. The PSOE is in the opposite canp of ERC and Bildu on issues related to sovereignty,  but sometimes is able to find a common ground with them on ither issues (housing policy, for instance). As for the negotiations with ERC, I was fully in favour of abolishing the outdated crime of sedition. However, I didn't like changes in the misappropriation. Nevertheless, negotiation and exchange are the essence of politics. Sectarian confrontation and the inability to talk and reach agreements with adversaries are essentially anti-pilitical, in my opinion.

I would distinguish ERC from Bildu. ERC never had any terrorist branches and acted always within the "system". Bildu, I think it's a different case and it's, again, complicated. We're dealing with a very delicate thing that isn't that far in the past. I'm not a supporter of illegalizing parties because of this or that, as in the end, it may, or will, backfire, but the Bildu case I would say caution, caution.

[Mike88]

The campaign is now over. The last few days seemed to have been dominated by reports of vote buying in a few towns. In Mellila, PP and CpM were caught trying to buy votes, and PSOE was also caught buying votes in one Andalusia town, Mojácar.

[Mike88]

Last events of the main parties:

PSOE - Spanish Socialist Workers' Party

PP - People's Party

Vox

Sumar

Podemos

C's - Ciudadanos

[Mike88]

Election day has arrived. There are 35,522,806 registered voters and 60,542 precincts. Up for grabs are 8,131 municipalities and 12 regions plus Ceuta and Melilla.

Turnout updates are expected at 2pm and 6pm, local time.

Polls close at 8pm (7pm London time, 2pm New York time) and I believe that GAD3 will release predictions on who wins in the major races.

Results page: https://resultados.locales2023.es/

TVE 24 h live feed:

[Mike88]

As we wait for the national figures, in Madrid region turnout, at 1pm, is up compared with both 2019 and 2021:

2023: 29.16% (+2.57%)
2021: 26.59%
2019: 24.58%

[Mike88]

2pm turnout update:

2023: 36.70% (+1.60%)
2019: 35.10%

[Mike88]

6pm turnout update:

2023: 51.48% (+1.55%)
2019: 49.93%