Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Velasco]

I suspect the projections for Soria Ya and Por Ávila are mere speculation, given the sample sizes

[Velasco]

SigmaDos / IMOP polls

PP 39.2 (37-39) / 35.7 (34)
PSOE 29.7 (25-27) / 29.9 (29)
VOX 12.3 (9-10) /  13.0 (10)
UP  7.0 (3) / 7.1 (3)
Cs 3.5 (1) / 4.6 (1)
UPL* 3.2 (2) / 3.1 (2)
EV** 3.3 (1-2) / Soria Ya 1.1 (2)
XAV*** 0 6 (0)

* Leonese People's Union (Leon regionalist)

** España Vaciada  ("Emptied Spain") is running in 5 provinces under different names.  Soria Ya is the list running in Soria province - pollsters speculate it's likely to win 1 or 2 seats. Another list that could win a seat is Via Burgalesa (Burgos)

*** Por Ávila ("For Avila" is a PP splinter)

The Castilla y León parliament  (Cortes) has 81 seats

[Skye]

Almost on par with Velasco's post, the CIS released their own poll for the election, and it's just what you'd expect:

https://twitter.com/CIS_Institucion/status/1486310001467662339

Keep in mind that this is the only poll that has the PSOE leading.

[Velasco]

Keep in mind that this is the only poll that has the PSOE leading.

The weird thing is not the PSOE projection (30-31 is not far from the average 29-30 in other polls), but the projection for UP or Cs (the oranges are absurdly overestimated) in contrast with PP and Vox (both apparently underestimated).

While the projections for the major parties are not very credible for most of us, there are other things to watch. I think this poll could be useful to predict he result of the small provincial parties, because the sample size is about 7 times larger than the polls released previously. Soria Ya is projected to win Soria province in a landslide (2-3 seats out of 5), while the other Emptied Spain lists are projected rather poor results. The Leonese regionalists (UPL) are projected to win 2 or 3 seats (León returns 13), while Por Ávila (XAV) could retain its seat. There are projections for other small provincial parties as well.

Ávila: XAV gets 10.5 in direct vote* and is projected to get 15.4 (1 seat)
Burgos: Vía Burgalesa gets 1.5 and it's projected to 3.1
León: UPL gets 12.1 and is projected to 18.8 (2-3 seats)
Palencia: Puede Palencia and España Vaciada get around 1% in direct vote
Salamanca: España Vaciada and UPL get around 1% in direct vote
Segovia: Centrados en Segovia gets around 1%
Soria: Soria Ya gets 31.0 in direct vote and is projected to 42.3 (2-3 seats)
Valladolid: España Vaciada gets below 1%
Zamora: Zamora Decide gets 4.1 and is projected to 7.6; UPL gets around 1%

* "Direct vote in the poll"

Keep an eye in Soria

[Velasco]

BREAKING: The new Labor Reform has been passed by the Spanish Congress in a very tight vote. The 'investiture bloc' (the parties that voted the investiture of Pedro Sánchez) has been broken, in spite of the efforts made by Labor minister Yolanda Díaz to get the support of ERC and PNV. Labor Reform was passed with the support of parties outside the investiture bloc, namely Cs, PDeCAT,  UPN and CC. The support of those parties secured 176 affirmative votes on paper. However, the 2 deputies of the UPN (centre-right regionalists allied to the PP in Navarra) questioned the party's instructions to support the reform. Later it surfaced one of the UPN deputies broke the party's discipline Nervourness and suspense preceded the vote, which final result was 175 Yes against 174 No.

Yes (175) : PSOE (120),  UP (34*),  Cs (9), PDeCAT (4), MP (2), Compromis,  CC (1), NC (1), PRC (1), Teruel Existe! (1) and UPN (1)

No (174): PP (88), VOX (52), ERC (13), PNV (6), EHBildu (5), JxCAT (4), CUP (2), BNG (1), Foro (1), UPN (1) and Mixed **(1)

* Alberto Rodríguez vacated his seat for Santa Cruz de Tenerife and haven't been replaced
** Ex Cs

The Labor Reform was agreed between the mainstream unions (CCOO and UGT) and rmployers' associations after a long negotiation conducted by Yolanda Diaz. Reforming the labor market and tackling the high levels of temporarily are prerequisites to receive the EU Next Generation funds.

ERC, Bildu and other leftwing nationalists voted against the reform arguing it's doesn't fulfill the promise to revoke the previous reform of the PP government led by Mariano Rajoy.  The PNV voted against because it advocates collective agreements in the regions must have preference over nationwide agreements (possibly under the pressure of the Basque Nationalist unión ELA)

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

BREAKING: The new Labor Reform has been passed by the Spanish Congress in a very tight vote. The 'investiture bloc' (the parties that voted the investiture of Pedro Sánchez) has been broken, in spite of the efforts made by Labor minister Yolanda Díaz to get the support of ERC and PNV. Labor Reform was passed with the support of parties outside the investiture bloc, namely Cs, PDeCAT,  UPN and CC. The support of those parties secured 176 affirmative votes on paper. However, the 2 deputies of the UPN (centre-right regionalists allied to the PP in Navarra) questioned the party's instructions to support the reform. Later it surfaced one of the UPN deputies broke the party's discipline Nervourness and suspense preceded the vote, which final result was 175 Yes against 174 No.

Yes (175) : PSOE (120),  UP (34*),  Cs (9), PDeCAT (4), MP (2), Compromis,  CC (1), NC (1), PRC (1), Teruel Existe! (1) and UPN (1)

No (174): PP (88), VOX (52), ERC (13), PNV (6), EHBildu (5), JxCAT (4), CUP (2), BNG (1), Foro (1), UPN (1) and Mixed **(1)

* Alberto Rodríguez vacated his seat for Santa Cruz de Tenerife and haven't been replaced
** Ex Cs

The Labor Reform was agreed between the mainstream unions (CCOO and UGT) and rmployers' associations after a long negotiation conducted by Yolanda Diaz. Reforming the labor market and tackling the high levels of temporarily are prerequisites to receive the EU Next Generation funds.

ERC, Bildu and other leftwing nationalists voted against the reform arguing it's doesn't fulfill the promise to revoke the previous reform of the PP government led by Mariano Rajoy.  The PNV voted against because it advocates collective agreements in the regions must have preference over nationwide agreements (possibly under the pressure of the Basque Nationalist unión ELA)

Actually, both UPN deputies broke with their party and voted against. The PP expected to inflict a surprise defeat on the government, and they seemed to have gotten away with it when Meritxell Batet, the President of Congress, erroneously announced that the vote had failed (to thunderous applause from the opposition), but immediately after that she corrected herself and announced that it had succeeded (to thunderous applause from the government).

In the end, the reform was approved because a single PP deputy voted for it remotely and mistakenly. PP is now alleging that the deputy in question, Alberto Casero, did vote against the reform, but that Congress’s computer system registered a ‘yes’ vote, in a technical mistake. He (again, allegedly) made this known to the PP and the party supposedly transmitted this to Batet before the vote. PP claims she ignored this information and counted an affirmative vote regardless. However, it seems like the most likely hypothesis is that he just got confused and voted in favor by his own error.

The situation has not been resolved yet. The President of Congress is meeting with the parliamentary parties right now. Precedent states that a vote is valid even if a deputy cast it by mistake, only a technical error could be possibly amended. Fortunately, Congress’s technical services should clarify which way he actually voted. In the meantime, the PP is threatening to take the issue to the Constitutional Court.

[Velasco]

Yes, that's correct. The two UPN deputies voted against and 1 PP voted mistakenly in favor

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/congreso-aprueba-voto-primera-reforma-laboral-recupera-derechos-trabajadores_1_8714459.html

I think the Labor Reform will pass one way or another,  but this mess reveals how complicated is turning to be our country’s politics.  That's a terrible sign, because extreme complication is a breeding ground for discontent.

The campaign in Castilla y León is going on, but no relevant polls have been released in the last days. Rumours say PP is losing traction and Vox is on the rise. Cs candidate Igea tested positive for Covid at the beginning of the campaign, while former premier and PM Aznar attacked Casado for his weak leadership past weekend...

Please post something if you have some information to share about the campaign

[Skye]

Polling for this Sunday's CyL election is prohibited starting from today. I compiled a polling average of the last polls starting from 2 weeks ago and the numbers look like this:

PP 33.6
PSOE 29.1
VOX 13.8
UP 7.1
Cs 5.1
EV 3.8 (This % is lower than it should be because one pollster apparently didn't poll the party)
UPL 3.4

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

It’s election day in Castile and León!
Turnout at 11:30AM was 11,37%, though this figure does not mean much since no turnout update was given in 2019 at this hour, so we don’t really have anything to compare it to. The only remarkable thing may be that turnout is the highest in the province of Soria, where the most successful localist party (Soria NOW!) is running.

We’ve also known for some days that there has been a 40% decrease in mail ballot requests vis-à-vis the 2019 election. Another sign of lackluster voter engagement was the last CIS survey conducted before polling day, which showed that 60% of the electorate had little or no interest in the election. Lastly, the weather is not very inviting with rain predicted all over the region for this afternoon.

It has been speculated that low turnout would be bad for the PP. Renowned strategist with ties to the party, Narciso Michavila, went as far as to claim that if turnout were to be below 33% at 14:30, the PSOE could upset the PP and win the election; though this seems more like scaremongering on PP voters rather than anything else imo.

There will be further turnout updates at 14:30 and 18:30. Continuing with the weird media unwillingness to conduct exit polls, which has gone on for some years now, we will get polling conducted over the last few days when polls close at 20:00, immediately followed by actual vote counting.

[Mike88]

Results and turnout page: https://elecciones2022ccyl.es/avances/0/castilla-y-leon

I wonder what will happen in the PP leadership if the party fails to poll first, if Casado will be in danger of being removed from office. But, we should take polls with a grain of salt.

[jaichind]

Results and turnout page: https://elecciones2022ccyl.es/avances/0/castilla-y-leon

I wonder what will happen in the PP leadership if the party fails to poll first, if Casado will be in danger of being removed from office. But, we should take polls with a grain of salt.

I assume PP not finishing first would be because of a VOX surge?

[Mike88]

Results and turnout page: https://elecciones2022ccyl.es/avances/0/castilla-y-leon

I wonder what will happen in the PP leadership if the party fails to poll first, if Casado will be in danger of being removed from office. But, we should take polls with a grain of salt.

I assume PP not finishing first would be because of a VOX surge?

Yeah, I assume PP may be hurt by a possible surge by VOX, but the España Vaciada is also, it seems, to be draining votes from PP in rural areas. Curiously, PSOE isn't polling great also and it's likely to have a worse result than in 2019, even if they poll ahead of PP.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Turnout was 34,74% at 14:00, down two percentage points. Soria defies the trend with an increase of 0,77%, which is excellent news for Soria Now.

[Mike88]

Turnout at 51.62% at 6pm, down 2.08% compared with 2019.

[Skye]

Keep an eye on Valladolid. It's the largest Province and the one that will probably decide if Cs is in or out of the Legislature. Francisco Igea, CyL's VP, has his seat here and would probably be the only Cs legislator elected if the party's numbers are good enough in the province. I'd wager Cs needs to get ~6% of the vote here to feel comfortable in getting the seat. Of particular importance is the party's performance's in a few of Valladolid's younger "suburbs" (Arroyo, Zaratán) and neighborhoods (Villa del Prado, Las Villas-Covaresa) where the party is strongest in the region. But who knows, D'Hondt is a pain to calculate and a few variables could change that.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Keep an eye on Valladolid. It's the largest Province and the one that will probably decide if Cs is in or out of the Legislature. Francisco Igea, CyL's VP, has his seat here and would probably be the only Cs legislator elected if the party's numbers are good enough in the province. I'd wager Cs needs to get ~6% of the vote here to feel comfortable in getting the seat. Of particular importance is the party's performance's in a few of Valladolid's younger "suburbs" (Arroyo, Zaratán) and neighborhoods (Villa del Prado, Las Villas-Covaresa) where the party is strongest in the region. But who knows, D'Hondt is a pain to calculate and a few variables could change that.

Seeing how turnout is increasing the most (or at all) in exactly those places where C’s needs to get its vote out, in their shoes I’d be optimistic about at least retaining Igea’s seat. And pessimistic if I were the PSOE or, especially, the PP; turnout is dropping significantly in rural areas.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Turnout in provincial capitals at 18:00:
Valladolid: 55,53% (+3,45)
Burgos: 52,30% (+2,74)
Palencia: 52,14% (+1,77)
León: 51,37% (+4,32)
Soria: 51,37% (+5,71)
Salamanca: 50,70% (+3,09)
Ávila: 52,36% (-0,01)
Segovia: 51,48% (-1,34)
Zamora: 46,34% (-2,42)

Compared with 51,62% (-2,08) regionally. Perhaps the collapse in turnout in rural areas is best exemplified by Pablo Casado’s home village, Las Navas del Marqués, where turnout is crashing by 16%.

[Mike88]

Keep an eye on Valladolid. It's the largest Province and the one that will probably decide if Cs is in or out of the Legislature. Francisco Igea, CyL's VP, has his seat here and would probably be the only Cs legislator elected if the party's numbers are good enough in the province. I'd wager Cs needs to get ~6% of the vote here to feel comfortable in getting the seat. Of particular importance is the party's performance's in a few of Valladolid's younger "suburbs" (Arroyo, Zaratán) and neighborhoods (Villa del Prado, Las Villas-Covaresa) where the party is strongest in the region. But who knows, D'Hondt is a pain to calculate and a few variables could change that.

Seeing how turnout is increasing the most (or at all) in exactly those places where C’s needs to get its vote out, in their shoes I’d be optimistic about at least retaining Igea’s seat. And pessimistic if I were the PSOE or, especially, the PP; turnout is dropping significantly in rural areas.

Isn't the rural vote, in Spain, more aligned with the PSOE, while the urban vote is more PP? I know that both parties have a strong base in rural areas, but doesn't the PSOE have a larger base? In past elections, the early returns are more pro-PSOE, while later returns are more PP friendly. And looking at the provincial capitals turnout data, maybe PP was able to get out their base.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Isn't the rural vote, in Spain, more aligned with the PSOE, while the urban vote is more PP? I know that both parties have a strong base in rural areas, but doesn't the PSOE have a larger base? In past elections, the early returns are more pro-PSOE, while later returns are more PP friendly. And looking at the provincial capitals turnout data, maybe PP was able to get out their base.

You are right, the PP and the PSOE do better in rural areas in general, but depending on which region you are talking about, the former or the latter has the edge. What you said is true in places like Andalusia, for example, where the PSOE dominates; but in Castille and León it is the PP who has by far the most strength in rural places.

[Mike88]

Isn't the rural vote, in Spain, more aligned with the PSOE, while the urban vote is more PP? I know that both parties have a strong base in rural areas, but doesn't the PSOE have a larger base? In past elections, the early returns are more pro-PSOE, while later returns are more PP friendly. And looking at the provincial capitals turnout data, maybe PP was able to get out their base.

You are right, the PP and the PSOE do better in rural areas in general, but depending on which region you are talking about, the former or the latter has the edge. What you said is true in places like Andalusia, for example, where the PSOE dominates; but in Castille and León it is the PP who has by far the most strength in rural places.

Right, right. Spain also has the difference in the rural votes between North and South. Comparing this election with national returns may in fact be misleading, as CyL may be big in size, but small in population.

[Mike88]

So far, the "polls", not exit polls, put the PP slightly ahead of PSOE, and PP+Vox have a majority. C's reduced to just one seat.

Now, let's wait for the results.

[Former President tack50]

The "final polls" seem to me like this is going to be a boring election. Either that or all polls are wrong and we'll be in for a surprise during the count.

[jeron]

The "final polls" seem to me like this is going to be a boring election. Either that or all polls are wrong and we'll be in for a surprise during the count.

The only way would be if the regional parties outperform the polls, which is possible because they are smaller and therefore probably harder to poll exactly.

[Mike88]

So far, with 8% counted, mainly all from rural areas, PP has 37 seats, PSOE 24, VOX 14, UPL 3, SY 2 and XAV 1.

[Former President tack50]

I know it is all from rural areas, but 8% is significant enough. Seems like a small PP overperformance, PSOE underperforming, Vox underperforming.

Biggest losers of the night perhaps might be the "Empty Spain" outside of Soria (they are getting a great result in Soria where they have a good organization, but terrible organization elsewhere), Cs (does not get a seat) and UP (does not get any seats, which would be a massive blow to them; though UP is also probably the party that will grow the most as more rural votes come in)