Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Mike88]

It seems that Casado will resign as leader during this afternoon.

[Mike88]

Can’t believe Casado’s managed to take down both major PP leaders at the same time.

What do you mean exactly? Casado has surrendered already and right now he must be negotiating the terms of the armistice to hand power over the Galician 'baron'. Ayuso remains in place

I think he means that, even though Casado comitted political suicide, he also killed the "aura" of Ayuso, as it seems clear, right now, that there was a clear conflict of interest, at least, between her and the dealings with her brother.

[Mike88]

Adding to Velasco's good summary on the background of the Andalusian elections, here's the 3 recent polls from the region:

NC Report poll for La Razón newspaper:

33.3% PP, 45/47 seats
25.1% PSOE, 31/33
16.2% Vox, 17/18
  8.9% UP, 9/10
  5.1% AA, 2/3
  4.9% C's, 1/3
  2.4% AL, 0
  4.1% Others

Poll conducted between 18 and 22 April 2022. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.30%.

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo newspaper:

33.1% PP, 44 seats
25.7% PSOE, 33
17.6% Vox, 20
  9.4% UP, 8/9
  4.7% C's, 2
  3.2% AL, 0/1
  3.1% AA, 0/1
  3.2% Others

Poll conducted between 18 and 21 April 2022. Polled 2,200 voters. MoE of 2.10%.

SocioMétrica poll for El Español newspaper:

34.0% PP, 46 seats
24.8% PSOE, 33
16.5% Vox, 20
  7.7% UP, 7
  5.8% AA, 3
  3.9% C's, 0
  3.1% AL, 0
  4.2% Others

Poll conducted between 14 and 16 April 2022. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.30%.

[Mike88]

Well, the election is today.

At 11:30 am, 15.3% of voters had already cast a ballot.

[Mike88]

Well, the election is today.

At 11:30 am, 15.3% of voters had already cast a ballot.

Any link to results?

Official results page: https://resultados.eleccionesparlamentoandalucia2022.es/resultados/0/andalucia

Turnout updates: https://resultados.eleccionesparlamentoandalucia2022.es/avances/0/andalucia

[Mike88]

At 2pm, turnout is up more than 4% compared with 2018: 34.23%

[Mike88]

The provinces with the biggest increases in turnout, at 2pm, are Córdoba, Jaén and Sevilla, areas where PSOE is normally strong. The provinces with the smallest increases in turnout are Almería, Cádiz and Málaga, areas where PP is strong.

However, it's not clear if this trend is benefiting or hurting the main parties.

[Mike88]

Exactly, turnout could say a lot, but at the same time nothing. Vox is also gaining votes in the elderly, right? These voters normally voted left, PSOE or IU. Or is Vox's surge more aligned with younger/middle age voters?

[Mike88]

Turnout at 6pm has now stalled: 44.52%, minus 1.95% compared with 2018.

All provinces have, at 6pm, a lower turnout compared with 2018. Jaén and Cordoba are the only provinces where turnout is just very, very slightly bellow 2018.

[Mike88]

RTVE live feed:

[Mike88]

TVE projection: PP wins an absolute majority.

[Mike88]

Projections:

TVE-GAD3:
https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1538582794460446722

Sociamétrica:
https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1538582730090356738

Data10:
https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1538582467661242377

[Mike88]

TVE projection: PP wins an absolute majority.

What? How can this be ?

Only TVE is saying this, but these polls are not real "exit polls" but rather tracking polls in the last few days, I believe. We'll have to wait for the results.

Nonetheless, a massive win for PP.

[Mike88]

Few votes counted so far, just 1,173.

[Mike88]

Very early still, just 3.02% counted:

38.8% PP, 49 seats (+23)
29.3% PSOE, 36 (-3)
14.1% Vox, 17 (+5)
  6.9% PorA, 5 (new)
  4.3% AA, 2 (new)
  2.7% C's, 0 (-21)

[Mike88]

15% of the votes counted. PP at 52 seats, PSOE at 35. The conservatives lead in all provinces.

[Mike88]

30.91% counted:

40.8% PP, 53 seats (+27)
26.4% PSOE, 33 (nc)
13.6% Vox, 15 (+3)
  7.8% PorA, 6 (new)
  4.7% AA, 2 (new)
  3.0% C's, 0 (-21)
  1.0% PACMA, 0 (nc)
  2.7% Others, 0 (nc)

54.2% Turnout

[Mike88]

History is being made:

Seville: (35.03% counted)

36.7% PP, 8 seats
30.5% PSOE, 6
10.8% Vox, 2
  8.8% PorA, 1
  6.2% AA, 1
  3.3% C's, 0

[Mike88]

With 44.67% counted, PP reaches the 55 seats minimum for a majority.

[Mike88]

I'm not sure if Feijoo will be a good prime minister or a bad prime minister, but it's hard to imagine a scenario in which he does not become prime minister. What a night for him.

PP needed to have a strong result in order to "kick" Vox off the radar and start to coalesce the rightwing vote in them. Vox whole strategy is that PP cannot govern without them, but after tonight and if the results trend continue, that strategy suffers a huge blow.

[Mike88]

68.62% counted:

42.1% PP, 56 (+30)
25.0% PSOE, 32 (-1)
13.4% Vox, 14 (+2)
  7.8% PorA, 5 (new)
  4.7% AA, 2 (new)
  3.2% C's, 0 (-21)
  1.0% PACMA, 0 (nc)
  2.8% Others, 0 (nc)

56.6% Turnout

[Mike88]

Results by municipality:

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/andalucia/2022-06-19/quien-va-ganando-en-las-elecciones-de-andalucia-municipio-a-municipio_3443457/

A blue "tsunami":
https://twitter.com/elconfidencial/status/1538611524645822464

[Mike88]

Almost final results, 99.63% counted:

43.1% PP, 58 seats (+32)
24.1% PSOE, 30 (-3)
13.5% Vox, 14 (+2)
  7.7% PorA, 5 (new)
  4.6% AA, 2 (new)
  3.3% C's, 0 (-21)
  1.0% PACMA, 0 (nc)
  2.7% Others, 0 (nc)

58.4% Turnout

[Mike88]

First poll after the Andalusian election:

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1539160191219941376

[Mike88]

I'm not a fan of Sanchéz at all, but at least he's reacting to the raising cost of living and doing something about it unlike his neighbor country, which the government says, over and over again, that it cannot reduce VAT on several products without EU permition, while Spain is doing that without any worries. The difference in gas prices is around 30-40 cents between Portugal and Spain, and we still pay 23% of VAT on electricity, with reduced taxes of 6% and 13% for small outputs, which in some cases would only let a few items work, lol.

Watermelons and cherries prices vary, of course, between places, but from what I've seen when I go out shooping, cherries are around 6 euros per kilo and watermelons cost at around 9 euros per unit. Of course, much more expensive here as we earn half of what the Spanish earn.