Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Pablo Casado, 21 Nov: En el PP "no caben personalismos", el partido no es de “solistas” ni "una hoguera de las vanidades que no conducen a ninguna parte", "esto no es un talent show de megalomanías".

^{El PP cierra filas con Casado en Andalucía: "Esto no es un 'talent show' de megalomanías" https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/andalucia/2021-11-21/el-pp-cierra-filas-con-casado-en-andalucia_3328119/}

Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo y Peralta-Ramos XIV Marquesa de Casa Fuerte, 22 Nov: “Está llamando personalismo a la personalidad, y divismo al liderazgo”, ha reflexionado. “Es una vieja trampa de la izquierda confundir la libertad, la personalidad, con la megalomanía para anular al individuo que destaca. Es un camino que no nos conviene recorrer.”

Álvarez de Toledo acaba de publicar un libro que ha incendiado al PP. En Políticamente indeseable (Ediciones B), la ex portavoz parlamentaria describe a Casado como un líder “veleta” y acusa al secretario general, Teodoro García Egea, de hacerle “bullying” [acoso].

^{Álvarez de Toledo responde a Casado: “Está llamando personalismo a la personalidad, y divismo al liderazgo” https://elpais.com/espana/2021-11-22/alvarez-de-toledo-responde-a-casado-esta-llamando-personalismo-a-la-personalidad-y-divismo-al-liderazgo.html}

Isabel Díaz Ayuso, 22 Nov: "Nadie se va contra nadie, todo se malinterpreta."

^{https://twitter.com/LaHoraTVE/status/1462701266065367043}

If you want to comment about PP internal disputes, please translate

Lol sorry. Tried translating "personalismos" into a word that people actually use in English (as in, not "personalisms") and gave up.

Pablo Casado, 21 Nov: "Personalisms [cults of personality? idk] do not fit" in the PP, the party is not for "soloists” nor is it "a a bonfire of the vanities that leads nowhere", "this is not a talent show [he used 'talent show' in English] for megalomaniacs".

^{El PP cierra filas con Casado en Andalucía: "Esto no es un 'talent show' de megalomanías" https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/andalucia/2021-11-21/el-pp-cierra-filas-con-casado-en-andalucia_3328119/}

Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo y Peralta-Ramos, 14th Marchioness of Casa Fuerte, 22 Nov: “He's calling having a personality a cult of personality, and calling leadership, division. It's an old trick of the Left to confuse freedom, personality, with megalomania to erase the individual who succeeds. It's a path we shouldn't follow.”

^{Álvarez de Toledo responde a Casado: “Está llamando personalismo a la personalidad, y divismo al liderazgo” https://elpais.com/espana/2021-11-22/alvarez-de-toledo-responde-a-casado-esta-llamando-personalismo-a-la-personalidad-y-divismo-al-liderazgo.html}

Isabel Díaz Ayuso, 22 Nov: "Nobody is fighting anybody. It's all been misinterpreted."

^{https://twitter.com/LaHoraTVE/status/1462701266065367043}

[Velasco]

Lol sorry. Tried translating "personalismos" into a word that people actually use in English (as in, not "personalisms") and gave up.

Pablo Casado, 21 Nov: "Personalisms [cults of personality? idk] do not fit" in the PP, the party is not for "soloists” nor is it "a a bonfire of the vanities that leads nowhere", "this is not a talent show [he used 'talent show' in English] for megalomaniacs".

Pablo Casado meant a party is about "trascending personalities". I guess "personalismo" can be translated as "personality " or "personality cultism"; yeah

"Divismo" is another term you can read in that news. It refers to people acting like divas. Some folks in the PP would say that Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo or Ayuso are prima donnas*

* Like them or not (I dislike them a lot), Álvarez de Toledo and Ayuso are interesting characters in their own style (there's little in common between the aristocrat and the populist leader of Madrid, ideology aside). These women are too much for  poor Teodoro García Egea, the mediocre secretary general of the PP

[...]

DYM ratings: Yolanda Díaz  4.2, Pedro Sánchez 3.6, Inés Arrimadas 3.6, Pablo Casado 3.4, Santiago Abascal 2.9

According to DYM, 44.7% believe Yolanda Díaz is the best suited to lead that "broad front" of the left (85.5% of UP voters, 68.6% of the PSOE voters... 62.9% of the Vox voters!)

https://www.diariodesevilla.es/espana/valoracion-lideres-sondeo-Yolanda-Diaz-preferida-Ayuso-busca-salto_0_1623439341.html

On the other hand, the popularity of political leaders is not neccessarilly related to electoral success. For instance, Adolfo Suárez was rated among the most popular leaders by the CIS during the mid and late 1980s, but the CDS never won an election. Inés Arrimadas and Iñigo Errejón are scoring relatively high in recent polls, but their parties are polling around 3%

Yeah we all know how that one ended:

Not bad point, but Yolanda Díaz is much better than Rosa Díez. Basically our current Labour minister has forged agreements with employers and unions, in order to umplement measures that saved thousands of jobs during the pandemic.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

The comparison between Díez & Díaz is funny, but important to keep in mind that Yolanda Díaz has these numbers after being a high-profile government minister for nearly 2 years, and VP of the country for the last year

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1462709703159472131?s=20

[BigSerg]

Vox votes no to the Andalusian budget. There will probably be elections in spring.
https://twitter.com/EFEnoticias/status/1463627632977793025?s=20

[Velasco]

ERC and En Comú Podem reached sn agreement in Catalonia, in order the latter votes to pass the regional budget and the former unlocks the passing of the Barcelona local budget. This agreement was sealed bypassing JxCAT, which is is the ERC's coalition partner in the Catalan government. Previously the CUP rejected to vote the regional budget, leaving the regional government in minority. JxCAT reacted angrily, in spite the budget was drafted by a minister from that party.  JxCAT spokeswoman Elsa Artadi said the agreement is a "defeat" of the pro-independence bloc. The radical faction represented by Ernest Maragall, the ERC spokesman in the Barcelona City Hall, has been "defeated" by the pragmatic faction of premier Pere Aragonès

Meanwhile the Spanish government secured enough votes to pass the budget, reaching agreements with all the parties that voted the investiture of Pedro Sánchez.  ERC was the last party to seal an agreement, which will secure a 6% quota in audiovisual production for languages different from Spanish (Catalan,  Basque and Galician)

The Andalusian premier Moreno Bonilla is reluctant to call a snap election, given that he is a "moderate" who feels more comfortable with Cs in the government. An indiscretion by deputy premier Juan Marín (Cs) has been used as a pretext to withdraw support from Vox. In case deadlock continues and EU funds cannot be implemented, there will be elections next spring.  Conservative papers have said already the PP national leadership is favourable to a snap election,  in order to test a PP-Vox coalition at regional level. The right is polling well in Andalusia,  while the PSOE is stagnant and the parties to the left are in a state of disarray. So Andalusia could be the first place to experiment how the Polish and Hungarian models work in Spain

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

After months of speculation, regional president Fernández Mañueco (PP) has sacked all C’s ministers from his cabinet and called for snap elections in his Castile and León autonomous community, to be held on 13 February.

[Skye]

I barely follow CyL news anymore so this comes as a bit of a surprise and I'm a bit perplexed as to why it wasn't done before. Mañueco is well positioned to win the election but what little polling we have has him short of a majority, and in the national environment, the PP's momentum after Ayuso's win seems to be fading.

There's also the question of C's being wiped out much like what happened in Madrid, I think their best shot would be to snatch a seat in Valladolid, but who knows.

[Velasco]

It seems the PP national leadership is seeking to teplicate the success of Ayuso in Madrid. Pablo Casado needs successful elections in Castilla y León and Andalucía because: a) he needs to prolong the momentum after the Ayuso landslide in Madrid and b) he also needs to reafirm his fragile leadership, while the PP's mpmentum is apparently fading due to the conflict between Casado and Ayuso. The PP is also seeking to prevent the effects of the Empty Spain alternative . I have no time to elaborate on the inconsistencies of Pablo Casado, who is a terrible leader by any standard

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Mañueco had a very strange way to announce the new election. Using super dramatic words like "treason" and talking about the consequences of betrayal… could the hyperbolics backfire or is he safe to be re-elected?

[Velasco]

Mañueco had a very strange way to announce the new election. Using super dramatic words like "treason" and talking about the consequences of betrayal… could the hyperbolics backfire or is he safe to be re-elected?

I don't know, but for sure his national leader Pablo Casado has set a bew standard for hyperbolics. Just watch recent parliamentary speeches. Casado has crossed the
red lines on several occassions and is playing the Vox's game, but he's simply too stupid and ignorant to be aware

[BigSerg]

Mañueco had a very strange way to announce the new election. Using super dramatic words like "treason" and talking about the consequences of betrayal… could the hyperbolics backfire or is he safe to be re-elected?

Andalusia and Castilla y León are safe (all polls say so). Talking about "treason" is good to make Ciudadanos disappear.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1472886932384346118?s=20

[Former President tack50]

Mañueco had a very strange way to announce the new election. Using super dramatic words like "treason" and talking about the consequences of betrayal… could the hyperbolics backfire or is he safe to be re-elected?

They might backfire (unlike in Madrid, everyone seems to be directly blaming PP for an unnecessary election), but Castille-Leon is so conservative and so heavily PP leaning that he should be safe regardless

Only thing that could stop that would be if the rural party España Vaciada manages to organize well in a very short amount of time (CyL is also the most rural region of Spain alongside Castille-La Mancha) and on top of that gets a very strong result while mostly taking PP voters. Not a very likely scenario

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1473945995759206408?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1474863978019008513?s=20

[Zinneke]

What's this new Centrem party in Catalunya

[Velasco]

What's this new Centrem party in Catalunya

Apparently Centrem is the new attempt to launch a party representing moderate (pro-independence) nationalists in Catalonia. "Moderate" means centre-right (liberal) ideology and a softer approach to the national question, vindicating negotiation within legal framework to achieve independence. The main figure seems to be Angels Chacón, who was the unsuccessful PDeCAT candidate in the February 2021 election. Chacón claims her newborn artifact is the first "post-procès party". The first convention has been set on March 13

in other news El País released a poll conducted by Belén Barreiro's 40dB that reflects increasing polarization and fragmentation, as well as a disturbing Vox surge. The poll shows apparently contradictory signs from a society affected by a strong pandemic weariness. Most of the legislative initiatives launched by the coalition government (including new labor legislation, euthanasia and some others) are approved by a majority. However and regardless the remarkable legislative production (besides the unexpected stability of the heterogeneous majority in parliament), the government is perceived as fragile and divided. It seems clear this government has a problem of image and is failing to counter the narratives sustained on fake news and the extreme verbal aggressiveness of Vox and PP.

The 40dB poll paints an unruly chaos

PSOE 26.1% (108 seats)
PP 23.5% (100 seats)
VOX 18.3% (66 seats)
UP 11.8% (31 seats)
Cs 3.6% (2 seats)
MP 3.6% (4 seats)
Others 12.8% (39 seats)

https://elpais.com/espana/2022-01-09/el-psoe-resiste-ante-el-avance-de-la-derecha-empujada-por-vox.html

The last example is an inflated controversy on the (manipulated) statements of Alberto Garzón, minister of Consumer Affairs. Garzón told in an interview to The Guardian that meat produced in big farms (thousands of heads of livestock living in stables) is of inferior quality* to that produced in extensive farms with sustainable methods (traditional or ecological farming). Besides, there are serious environmental issues with massive farms (carbon emissions, soil and water pollution), Garzón has been accused by conservative media and right-wing opposition, arguing his statements are an attack to the livestock sector and asking Pedro Sánchez to fire Garzón. The problem is that PSOE 'barons' like Emiliano García Page (Castilla-La Mancha), the Agriculture minister Luis Planas and even Pedro Sánchez have criticized Garzón and made statements in support of the livestock industry, In other words, the PSOE is feeding the controversy and helping the PP to score a match point in the upcoming Castilla y León elections

*"Inferior quality" was "translated as "poor quality" in the English version

[PSOL]

Spanish Police chief alleges that Spanish intelligence conducted a 2017 terrorist attack

Uhhhh, can someone explain this?

[Velasco]

El Norte de Castilla provides infographics on Castilla y León elections

10 regional elections have been held since the inaugural took place in 1983. The PSOE was the largest party in 1983, getting 42 seats and governed with the support of the liberal PDL.The first premier was the socialist Demetrio Madrid, who resigned in 1986. AP and PSOE were tied  in the 1987 elections, while the centrist CDS skyrocketed from 2 to 18 seats and became the kingmaker. PP candidate José Maria Aznar was elected premier with the support of the CDS, being replaced in 1989 by Jesús Posada. That year Aznar was designated heir by Manuel Fraga and AP was refurbished into the modern PP. The 1991 elections signaled the beginning of the PP hegemony in the region, with comfortable majorities in subsequent elections for premiers Juan José Lucas (1991-2001) and Juan Vicente Herrera (2001-2019). The PSOE became again the largest party in 2019, but the PP remained in power through a coalition deal with Cs. Premier Alfonso Fernández Mañueco broke the coalition alleging disloyalty, pretty much like Ayuso did in Madrid past year

1983: PSOE 42, AP 39, CDS 2, PDL 1 (total 84)
1987: PSOE 32, AP 32, CDS 18, PDP 1, SI 1 (total 84)
1991: PP 43, PSOE 35, CDS 5, IU 1 (total 84)
1995: PP 50, PSOE 27, IU 5, UPL 2 (total 84)
1999: PP 48, PSOE 30, UPL 3, IU 1, TC-PNC 1 (total 83)
2003: PP 48,  PSOE 32, UPL 2 (total 82)
2007: PP 48, PSOE 33, UPL 2 (total 83)
2011: PP 53, PSOE 29,  UPL 1 (total 83)
2015: PP 42, PSOE 25, Podemos 10, Cs 5, IU 1, UPL 1 (total 84)
2019: PSOE 35, PP 29, Cs 12, Podemos 2, Vox 1, UPL 1, XAV 1 (total 81)

The size of regional parliament has diminished due to depopulation

https://www.elnortedecastilla.es/castillayleon/resultados-autonomicas-castilla-20220111203519-nt.html

[Velasco]

The new Empty Spain party will contest regional elections in Castilla y León.  This new political group claims to be a cross-party movement and aims to represent the depopulated rural provinces of Spain.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/05/empty-promise-new-political-group-speaks-up-depopulated-rural-spain-espana-vaciada

Decades of depopulation have left huge stretches of rural Spain starved of people, attention and investment, and prompted the country’s Socialist-led coalition government to establish a ministry for the demographic challenge.

But for many in such areas, change has not come fast enough. At the end of September, an association of more than 160 local and regional groups decided to run as a joint platform in regional and national elections.

 The España Vaciada platform took its inspiration from the fact that Teruel Existe, a movement that campaigns to improve conditions in the overlooked Teruel region of eastern Spain, managed to win one seat in congress and two in the senate in the November 2019 general election. Despite having just one MP, Teruel Existe has become a powerful force in a political landscape that is increasingly fragmented and dependent on horse-trading to get things done (...)  

It's up to see whether the new party is able to break the PP-PSOE duopoly in rural areas, but no doubt this movement is one of the things to watch. Actually one of the reasons to call a snap election invoked by PP insiders off the record was to tackle the surge of the Empty Spain

The Empty Spain is still in construction phase and it's not yet implemented in all the territory. Five provincial lists have been put forward in the upcoming regional election: Soria, Palencia, Salamanca, Burgos and Valladolid

https://elpais.com/espana/2022-01-11/los-candidatos-de-espana-vaciada-soslayan-la-ideologia-frente-a-la-defensa-territorial.html

More the Emptied Spain movement and its potential (extensive coverage). Note that the Spanish electoral sustem favors depopulated provinces.  A party that gets 1 million of votes more or less uniformly spread nationwide can get only 2 seats in Congress  (IU in 2008 and 2015), while 1 million of votes concentrated in the less populated provinces could render as much as 20 or 25 seats

https://english.elpais.com/spain/2021-11-24/how-depopulation-of-rural-areas-is-fueling-political-protest-against-emptied-spain.html

 In 2019, the parties that won the most seats in the small provinces were the PSOE (42) and the PP (34), ahead of the far-right Vox (14) and the left-wing Unidas Podemos (three). The two big parties are, therefore, the ones that have the most to lose in these rural areas.

José Pablo Ferrándiz, from Elemental Research, believes that the scenario is “very complex,” but that getting into parliament would be “a very good result” for the rural platforms and that it makes sense for them to try because in such a fragmented political scenario, “a small party can make significant gains in exchange for their vote.”

In any case, Ferrándiz believes that it is “a wake-up call” for the traditional parties and that it could trigger changes, as the Indignados movement did in 2011 and 2012, in the internal workings of the big parties. “For example, when it comes to choosing the candidate for those provinces, they will have to be more involved at ground level in the area,” he points out. “The España Vaciada movement is also questioning the role of the Senate as a territorial chamber, as these groups have realized that a seat in Congress is more useful to them, giving them as it does more capacity to pressure and negotiate.”

But political scientist Pablo Simón believes it is too early to calculate the movement’s impact. “There are two years left [before the next general election] and they are very heterogeneous groups,” he says. “In the 1980s, many small and regional parties emerged because the conservative Alianza Popular, which was the genesis for the PP, was not very competitive. At that time there was very little polarization and competition. Now both are high and, in this context, when it comes to voting, people who thought they might support a local party often end up supporting a traditional party instead.”

 

[Conservatopia]

How bad is the depopulation problem in rural Spain?
Where is it worst? Teruel?

[Velasco]

How bad is the depopulation problem in rural Spain?
Where is it worst? Teruel?

It is a very serious problem and affects all the inland countryside regions, being particularly intense in central Spain. Over the past 50 years Spain has lost 28% of its rural population.  There are some 6,800 villages in Spain with less than 5,000 inhabitants and many inland areas have extremely low population densities. Possibly Soria and Teruel are the most depopulated provinces, but there are many others in the list*. Population ageing is also a matter of concern in a country with one of the lowest birth rates in the world

*The 'Emptied Spain' comprises 23 provinces fulfilling two criteria:

a) Population density below national average
b) Population loss between 1950 and current year

These provinces represent more than 1/2 of the land area, but only 17% of the population (some 8.2 million). They return more than 1/4 of seats in Congress, namely 92 distributed as follows: PSOE 41 (of 120), PP 34 (89), Vox 14 (52), UP 2 (35) and Teruel Existe 1 (1)

The list of provinces  by region is the following:

Galicia (2); Lugo and Ourense
Castilla y León (9): Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora
Aragón (3): Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza
La Rioja (1)
Castilla-La Mancha (4): Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca and Guadalajara
Extremadura (2): Badajoz and Cáceres
Andalucía (2): Córdoba and Jaén

Spanish Police chief alleges that Spanish intelligence conducted a 2017 terrorist attack

Uhhhh, can someone explain this?

That Villarejo is a jailed corrupt policeman and most of his allegations are deemed fake news

[Velasco]

GAD3 for El Norte de Castilla

PP 40.8% 38-39
PSOE 29.1% 27-28
Vox 13.1% 9-10
UP 6 0% 2-3
UPL 2.9% 2
CS 2.6% 0-1
Soria Ya* 0.7% 1

* Soria Ya is part of the Emptied Spain platform, which is running in other 4 provinces. The movement is consolidated in Soria and it's likeky to win 1 or even 2 seats.The lack of implementation and connection to the local constituencies play against  the Empted Spain in other provinces where is running with improvised lists

In case the PP gets a result 2 or 3 seats short of a majority,  Mañueco could avert a coalition deal with Vox seeking the support of the Leonese regionalists (UPL) or Soria Ya, or the abstention of these groups in a second investiture vote

[Skye]

GAD3 for El Norte de Castilla

PP 40.8% 38-39
PSOE 29.1% 27-28
Vox 13.1% 9-10
UP 6 0% 2-3
UPL 2.9% 2
CS 2.6% 0-1
Soria Ya* 0.7% 1

* Soria Ya is part of the Emptied Spain platform, which is running in other 4 provinces. The movement is consolidated in Soria and it's likeky to win 1 or even 2 seats.The lack of implementation and connection to the local constituencies play against  the Empted Spain in other provinces where is running with improvised lists

In case the PP gets a result 2 or 3 seats short of a majority,  Mañueco could avert a coalition deal with Vox seeking the support of the Leonese regionalists (UPL) or Soria Ya, or the abstention of these groups in a second investiture vote

An interesting tidbit about this poll is that it has XAV losing its seat. Granted, it may be difficult to project seats for a super small party whose strength is mainly (IIRC) in a city with <60K pop.