Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Former President tack50]

Yes, I was looking for the most right-wing one I could find. Though most city centres seem to have lots of PP-Vox-Cs precincts. What are the voter bases for these parties? I imagine PP is a bit like the Tories here and PSOE/UP like Labour, but Vox and Cs I'm not so sure. From what I understand Vox is a far-right nationalist party, so I wouldn't have expected it to do well in places like that. And Cs?

Well something to note first of all is that Madrid is a very right wing major city by European/international standards. I think it may be the only right wing city alongside Stockholm in all of Western Europe. Spain also has a political system where income is still the primary indicator of people's vote.

After this I will note Salamanca is not quite central medieval Madrid (that would be the Centro district) although it is very close to it and comprises lots of 19th century "ensanches" with very nice appartments and what not. You are correct in that Salamanca is a very affluent neighbourhood (perhaps even the most affluent in Madrid).

Back when Cs was the party that was riding high while Vox only had 10% of the vote, there was a very interesting division between "old money" areas (where PP was still dominant) and "new money" areas (where Cs beat PP). Salamanca fell firmly in the "old money" side of this divide.

Since income is the primary reason for people's vote in Spain, it is easy to see why Salamanca would be such an extremely right wing area. Rich, old money people voting conservatively. As for who votes Vox within these areas? Honestly I do not really know. My best guess would be rich, socially conservative people but I have no idea.

In more general terms Vox voters are stereotyped as middle aged people that live in exurban areas and with a fairly average level of education and relatively high incomes; although it is worth noting that Vox's most recent gains (and indeed their vote distribution in this Madrid election) has shown them gaining mostly among more working class people.

Anyways, if you want comparisons to UK parties, yeah, the Tories are a very good comparison for PP. Cs I guess could be considered as a more right wing version of the Lib Dems? As for Vox, there aren't really any good UK comparisons but it is a firmly pro-Spanish unity and what not party (which in these kinds of areas in Spain does not lose you votes, rich people are all in for Spanish unity) that is very right wing economically and also does a lot of what they call the "cultural battle" I guess.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Yes, I was looking for the most right-wing one I could find. Though most city centres seem to have lots of PP-Vox-Cs precincts. What are the voter bases for these parties? I imagine PP is a bit like the Tories here and PSOE/UP like Labour, but Vox and Cs I'm not so sure. From what I understand Vox is a far-right nationalist party, so I wouldn't have expected it to do well in places like that. And Cs?

Well something to note first of all is that Madrid is a very right wing major city by European/international standards. I think it may be the only right wing city alongside Stockholm in all of Western Europe. Spain also has a political system where income is still the primary indicator of people's vote.

After this I will note Salamanca is not quite central medieval Madrid (that would be the Centro district) although it is very close to it and comprises lots of 19th century "ensanches" with very nice appartments and what not. You are correct in that Salamanca is a very affluent neighbourhood (perhaps even the most affluent in Madrid).

Back when Cs was the party that was riding high while Vox only had 10% of the vote, there was a very interesting division between "old money" areas (where PP was still dominant) and "new money" areas (where Cs beat PP). Salamanca fell firmly in the "old money" side of this divide.

Since income is the primary reason for people's vote in Spain, it is easy to see why Salamanca would be such an extremely right wing area. Rich, old money people voting conservatively. As for who votes Vox within these areas? Honestly I do not really know. My best guess would be rich, socially conservative people but I have no idea.

In more general terms Vox voters are stereotyped as middle aged people that live in exurban areas and with a fairly average level of education and relatively high incomes; although it is worth noting that Vox's most recent gains (and indeed their vote distribution in this Madrid election) has shown them gaining mostly among more working class people.

Anyways, if you want comparisons to UK parties, yeah, the Tories are a very good comparison for PP. Cs I guess could be considered as a more right wing version of the Lib Dems? As for Vox, there aren't really any good UK comparisons but it is a firmly pro-Spanish unity and what not party (which in these kinds of areas in Spain does not lose you votes, rich people are all in for Spanish unity) that is very right wing economically and also does a lot of what they call the "cultural battle" I guess.

Thanks for this insightful analysis. It reminds me quite a lot of French voting - rich inner city areas going for Fillon*. I remain astounded by the Vox vote in these places; just reading about Vox, they seem extremely unpleasant. Cs seems different from the Lib Dems in that the former is very anti-separatist whereas the Lib Dems have quite a cuddly, regionalist image.

Is there also a Catholic, socially conservative vote for PP? Because they do very well in Ávila and Lugo/Ourense but I doubt these rural areas are very wealthy, so I imagined it wa something religious. Or is age a thing?


*Though actually I couldn't help but think of Park Cities, Dallas for such a right wing urban area. But American comparisons are never good!

[Geoffrey Howe]

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

[Estrella]

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

Malta and her Labor and Nationalist, um, mobile networks say hi.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

They hate each other? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you!

[Skye]

Some results in other districts and in towns outside Madrid municipality are also worth mentioning

Indeed. For example, in the so called 'Red Belt' to the south of Madrid, the right wing parties performed remarkably well. Even in the left-wing stronghold™ of Rivas-Vaciamadrid, the right got 45% of the vote, and it was the one municipality in metro Madrid where the right performed the worst, so that alone should tell you something.

The right won the swingy Alcorcón and Móstoles municipalities comfortably, and had remarkably close runs in the left-leaning Funlabrada and Parla municipalities. In both Getafe and Leganés, the right got around 47% of the vote. Speaking of Leganés, I noticed the PSOE ran ahead of Más Madrid by about 4 points there. It seems MM did better than the PSOE in the newer developments (e.g. Leganés Norte) but the PSOE did better in the city centre and in the Zarzaquemada neighborhood. Interesting neighborhood, Zarzaquemada. I'm a bit familiar with it. Built in the 70's, it's very dense, and the population is among the oldest in urban Madrid (about a third of its residents is 65 or older), income is below average. It's also a left-wing stronghold, and it voted for the left once again by what seems (at glance) to be a comfortable margin. It still gave Ayuso a plurality win, though.

[Oryxslayer]

I would also add to the explanation above that Madrid's boomtime and development was during the Franco dictatorship. The wealthy of Madrid were not just wealthy, they were likely wealthy off working in or adjacent to a authoritarian regime. So this is a region with a high concentration of the type of families who were raised in an environment that primed them to say "Franco was bad, but..." which has a high correlation with PP/VOX voting.

[Zinneke]

Any reason why that precinct in Aluche went for the PCOE-PCPE?

[Zinneke]

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

I mean, in a Spanish context there are quite a few historical reasons the two would have disagreements.

[Velasco]

Any reason why that precinct in Aluche went for the PCOE-PCPE?

Lol. The results in that precinct clearly show that Aluche is a marxist leninist rstronghold in Ayuso's Madrid. Some people I know will be very pleased. Apparently the libertarian P-LIB has some supporters there, the PP decreased and the PSOE disappeared

It'd be funny if these results were true, but possibly someone made a mistake introducing that precinct data. Sometimes it happens

[Former President tack50]

Thanks for this insightful analysis. It reminds me quite a lot of French voting - rich inner city areas going for Fillon*. I remain astounded by the Vox vote in these places; just reading about Vox, they seem extremely unpleasant. Cs seems different from the Lib Dems in that the former is very anti-separatist whereas the Lib Dems have quite a cuddly, regionalist image.

Is there also a Catholic, socially conservative vote for PP? Because they do very well in Ávila and Lugo/Ourense but I doubt these rural areas are very wealthy, so I imagined it wa something religious. Or is age a thing?

Yes, of course there is a very strong socially conservative and religiously Catholic vote for PP; which as you note is concentrated basically all across rural (northern and central) Spain and also of course stronger among older people (though even the few remaining young people in places like rural Ávila or whatever are conservative, even if they might be less religious)

These rural areas are not rich definitely, but they are also not poor. Pretty sure Castille-Leon for instance ranks slightly above average in terms of income; and it has the best education system in the country.

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

Lmao that is a hilarious story.

But yeah, rural Andalucía is very left wing because there you have a ton of landless peasants working for big landlords with tons of land. So in those places PP is the party of the landlords (Señoritos / Terratenientes) and PSOE or IU are the parties of the peasants. You can also add to that the story of how these areas were left behind by Francoism (what Oryx said, but in reverse)

And as you note there are huge PSOE-IU rivalries (well or there used to be; given Podemos' rise I don't know to what extent those old rivalries still exist)

[Geoffrey Howe]

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

I mean, in a Spanish context there are quite a few historical reasons the two would have disagreements.

I wasn't surprised they disagreed - indeed often the bitterest rivalries are within the same camp...factionalists.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

I mean, in a Spanish context there are quite a few historical reasons the two would have disagreements.

I wasn't surprised they disagreed - indeed often the bitterest rivalries are within the same camp...factionalists.

Narcissism of small differences.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Thanks for this insightful analysis. It reminds me quite a lot of French voting - rich inner city areas going for Fillon*. I remain astounded by the Vox vote in these places; just reading about Vox, they seem extremely unpleasant. Cs seems different from the Lib Dems in that the former is very anti-separatist whereas the Lib Dems have quite a cuddly, regionalist image.

Is there also a Catholic, socially conservative vote for PP? Because they do very well in Ávila and Lugo/Ourense but I doubt these rural areas are very wealthy, so I imagined it wa something religious. Or is age a thing?

Yes, of course there is a very strong socially conservative and religiously Catholic vote for PP; which as you note is concentrated basically all across rural (northern and central) Spain and also of course stronger among older people (though even the few remaining young people in places like rural Ávila or whatever are conservative, even if they might be less religious)

These rural areas are not rich definitely, but they are also not poor. Pretty sure Castille-Leon for instance ranks slightly above average in terms of income; and it has the best education system in the country.

That makes sense, thanks.

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

Lmao that is a hilarious story.

But yeah, rural Andalucía is very left wing because there you have a ton of landless peasants working for big landlords with tons of land. So in those places PP is the party of the landlords (Señoritos / Terratenientes) and PSOE or IU are the parties of the peasants. You can also add to that the story of how these areas were left behind by Francoism (what Oryx said, but in reverse)

And as you note there are huge PSOE-IU rivalries (well or there used to be; given Podemos' rise I don't know to what extent those old rivalries still exist)

[Velasco]

Susana Díaz will contest an upcoming primary election in the Andalusian PSOE. Andalusia premier Moreno Bonilla (PP) denied rumours on a snap election.

Social Affairs minister Ione Belarra is likely to replace Pablo Iglesias as the Podemos secretary general.

[Former President tack50]

Here is a fun albeit really irrelevant thing. You know all those "diner journalim" articles you see in the US about "the south Texans that flipped to Trump" or whatever?

Well we now have a version of that for the Madrid elections, with people travelling to the 2 tiny places where PP was not the largest party

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/madrid/2021-05-05/elecciones-madrid-ayuso-fuentiduena-atazar_3065355/

Here is a very quick summary for people curious on the politics of small rural towns

Fuentidueña de Tajo (population 2136): This is a working class and agricultural titanium PSOE town in the southeastern corner of Madrid, right next to rural Castille-La Mancha. Pretty much "Don Quijote land". PSOE indeed holds 7/9 councillors. However while Ayuso was talking about the "Madrid way of life" and stuff like that; neighbours in Fuentidueña feel abandoned by the regional government. They lack a lot of services (no firefighter service, no ambulance service, only part time police service) and feel left behind by the urban centric Madrid regional government. (Indeed the article notes the agricultural parcels right next door in Castille-La Mancha are more developed than the ones in the Madrid side of the border). All of that combined to make Fuentidueña the last survivor of the Ayuso wave

El Atazar (population 90): This is an extremely small town, communicated with the rest of the world with only one tiny mountain road and segregated from everywhere else by a big reservoir. For people who love drama, they'll love the story here Basically it was an election fought all about the very local issues of a tiny town with a ridiculously small population. You know how in small towns you don't vote for "the PSOE candidate" but rather "Manolo, who lives 2 houses down the street and is my long time friend even if I am a conservative"? This is that turned up to 11

Back in the 2019 local elections, PSOE and PP tied in this village, and they flipped a coin to see who won (PSOE won). The neighbours were already extremely divided and that was the straw that broke the camel's back. Since then the village has been completely divided, with tons of insults and fights between neighbours from one side and the other; who try to avoid talking to each other.

Remember how Geoffrey Howe mentioned his friend who went to an Andalusian village where you had the "Socialist bar" and the "Communist bar"? Well that's the case in El Atazar too! (they have the PSOE bar and the PP bar. Of course not depending on your politics but on whether you like Manolo or you hate his guts)

In the end people here voted as sort of "revenge" for the local elections for the most part.

I am now super interested in the politics of a town with a population of 90 lmao

[Geoffrey Howe]

-snip-

The joys of granular election results!

[mileslunn]

How much of role did lockdowns play as I've heard Madrid has unlike other Spanish Autonomous communities chose to keep things open, sort of Swedish approach.  I know most medical experts are against such thing but what is public's attitude.  I know here in Canada where I live, lockdowns very popular (no one likes them but people feel necessary) and politicians who have re-opened too soon have paid a price in polling numbers.  By contrast in parts of US like Texas and Florida, they have re-opened even when cases still high and their governor's have seen strong approval ratings and quite popular so are a lot in Spain more like Americans than Canadians on this, otherwise want to go back to normal even with risks and happy PP is for re-opening?

[Mike88]

Ángel Gabilondo, PSOE candidate, was rushed to Hospital this afternoon because of a heart problem. He got a Covid shot earlier today.

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1390342661652066308

He has also resigned from his seat in the Madrid Assembly.

[Mike88]

First poll after the Madrid elections:

Demoscopia y Servicios poll for ESdiario newspaper:

Vote share %:

26.3% PP, 115 seats
25.3% PSOE, 107
16.9% Vox, 61
10.5% UP, 19
  5.1% Más País, 8
  3.4% ERC, 12
  2.7% JxCat, 10
  2.3% C's, 1
  7.5% Others, 17

43.2% PP+Vox, 176 seats (Majority)
40.9% PSOE+UP+Más País, 134

Poll conducted between 5 and 6 May 2021. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.10%.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

First poll after the Madrid elections:

Demoscopia y Servicios poll for ESdiario newspaper:

Vote share %:

26.3% PP, 115 seats
25.3% PSOE, 107
16.9% Vox, 61
10.5% UP, 19
  5.1% Más País, 8
  3.4% ERC, 12
  2.7% JxCat, 10
  2.3% C's, 1
  7.5% Others, 17

43.2% PP+Vox, 176 seats (Majority)
40.9% PSOE+UP+Más País, 134

Poll conducted between 5 and 6 May 2021. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.10%.

Ciudadanos -> Ciudadano

[Zinneke]

Ángel Gabilondo, PSOE candidate, was rushed to Hospital this afternoon because of a heart problem. He got a Covid shot earlier today.

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1390342661652066308

He has also resigned from his seat in the Madrid Assembly.

That's a shame, in the debates he was both charming and lacked the sensationalist posturing that even his own party members sometimes adopt.

Also, tack50, are we really comparing C's to the LibDems after everything that happened? I actually think C's in retrospect should be seen as the pet project of one man, Albert Rivera, and his intellectual and PR entourage, to try and make a right-wing "brand" more fresh, out of fear of the PP getting absolutely annihilated due to corruption scandals and outdated views on things like gay marriage. It was political entrepreuneurs trying to find any market available (including describing themselves as social democrats when it suited them), with the only value of conserving the worst aspects of Spanish institutions. They are not liberals in any measure, European or Anglo-Saxon. They were just a very modern phenomenon. There were always rumours that Rivera was a PP asset too, given he hid his activity in the party.

[Former President tack50]

Also, tack50, are we really comparing C's to the LibDems after everything that happened? I actually think C's in retrospect should be seen as the pet project of one man, Albert Rivera, and his intellectual and PR entourage, to try and make a right-wing "brand" more fresh, out of fear of the PP getting absolutely annihilated due to corruption scandals and outdated views on things like gay marriage. It was political entrepreuneurs trying to find any market available (including describing themselves as social democrats when it suited them), with the only value of conserving the worst aspects of Spanish institutions. They are not liberals in any measure, European or Anglo-Saxon. They were just a very modern phenomenon. There were always rumours that Rivera was a PP asset too, given he hid his activity in the party.

Yeah, any comparison was going to be a bad comparison and I picked the least bad one (I definitely don't think Cs can be compared to any British party, and the Lib Dems come the closest)

I guess I do agree with your statements, but I do think that Cs was at least in part a liberal party in the European sense of the word. Is Rivera's turn to the right any more sharp than say, Macron's? Is Rivera htat much more right wing than say, Rutte? (It is worth noting Cs had some "socially liberal/libertarian" positions, most notably the legalization of surrogate motherhood and I think they argued sometimes in favour of more lenient drug laws. Being "tough on Catalonia" isn't really a social issue in that same way)

[Skye]

First poll after the Madrid elections:

Demoscopia y Servicios poll for ESdiario newspaper:

Vote share %:

26.3% PP, 115 seats
25.3% PSOE, 107
16.9% Vox, 61
10.5% UP, 19
  5.1% Más País, 8
  3.4% ERC, 12
  2.7% JxCat, 10
  2.3% C's, 1
  7.5% Others, 17

43.2% PP+Vox, 176 seats (Majority)
40.9% PSOE+UP+Más País, 134

Poll conducted between 5 and 6 May 2021. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.10%.

This must be the first poll that has the PP in the lead since forever.

[Mike88]

This must be the first poll that has the PP in the lead since forever.

First PP lead in a poll since January 2019.