Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Mike88]

...Bibi of Girona...

LMAO. Priceless.

[Mike88]

In Andalucia, Vox has removed their support for the PP-C's government because of the regional government approval to receive refugees from Ceuta. What's the likelihood of an early election, again, in this region?

[Mike88]

In Andalucia, Vox has removed their support for the PP-C's government because of the regional government approval to receive refugees from Ceuta. What's the likelihood of an early election, again, in this region?

I don't know, but in a big upset yesterday, Vox abstained against a big project to make a zoning reform in Andalucia, which ended with the law failing. So depending on how agressive Vox is with them voting down everything, there might be an election relatively soon, perhaps after the sumer?

On the other hand there aren't many rumours about an election and the PP-Cs coalition there is working quite well (plus Cs obviously does not want one and I don't think PP wants either, premier Moreno Bonilla is a moderate in the party).

Yes, I read about that vote in the regional parliament and that PP is already saying that "voters punish parties that vote against governments that work well". Even though there are few rumours of a snap regional elections, it would probably be not a bad idea for PP to "dramatize" things, as PSOE-A is in internal infighting, C's is sinking faster than the Titanic and Vox could be punished by rightwing voters because of their decision to vote against PP-C's.

Curiously, a snap election could also benefit Sanchéz as he could see his nemesis, Susana Diáz, be forced out of the leadership, in the advent of a PSOE defeat.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/DaniCela8/status/1404154095682920453

Sources of the candidacy of @susanadiaz already assume defeat and that @JuanEspadasSVQ has won the primaries with more than 50% of the vote, and a second round would not be necessary: "It is already clear."

Caution, there still counting and Andalusia is very large.

Current tally: (85% counted)

56.0% Juan Espadas
37.4% Susana Diaz
  6.6% Luis Ángel Hierro

[Mike88]

• Electricity bill: the government is failing to find a solution to the existing situation of oligopoly, which is the cause of the high electricity prices that harm the consumers and burden the industries. Besides, it is very important to diminish the energy dependency developing Spain's great potential for wind and solar power.  This is an old inherited problem, but the government is failing miserably

How much does the average family pay in their energy bills? Because Spain is in the Iberian energy market, I assume that the bill is similar to what is paid in Portugal. Here, there will be a 3% rise in electricity bill, starting in July, in the regulated market, however only a minority will pay this rise as the overwhelming majority is in the free market. In this report, from 2021, Spain pays 0,2543 euros per kWh, while Portugal pays 0,2259 per kWh, however, Portugal's price is more due to taxes, it seems, as 46% of the energy bill are taxes.

[Mike88]

• Electricity bill: the government is failing to find a solution to the existing situation of oligopoly, which is the cause of the high electricity prices that harm the consumers and burden the industries. Besides, it is very important to diminish the energy dependency developing Spain's great potential for wind and solar power.  This is an old inherited problem, but the government is failing miserably

How much does the average family pay in their energy bills? Because Spain is in the Iberian energy market, I assume that the bill is similar to what is paid in Portugal. Here, there will be a 3% rise in electricity bill, starting in July, in the regulated market, however only a minority will pay this rise as the overwhelming majority is in the free market. In this report, from 2021, Spain pays 0,2543 euros per kWh, while Portugal pays 0,2259 per kWh, however, Portugal's price is more due to taxes, it seems, as 46% of the energy bill are taxes.

I found this table in the internet with average consumption and bills per family unit

1 person (single):   3.45 KW   70.95 EUR every two months
2 persons (couple): 3.45 KW 4.6 KW   98.60 EUR 106.55 EUR every two months
3 persons (1 son or daughter):   4 6 KW   117.30 EUR every two months
4 persons (2 sons or daughters): 4.6 KW 5.75 KW   127 80 EUR 135.73 EUR every two months

A sizeable amount of the electricity bill are taxes, but the main problem with the electricity bill in Spain is related to a regime of oligopoly where companies fix prices through a complex system. Electricity is produced by different sources (fossil fuels, nuclear, renewables). Basically the system ruling in Spain makes consumers and enterprises to pay electricity at the highest price, as if all the energy was produced at the higher cost possible. This leads to disproportionate profits for companies, because there are big differences between the costs of producing energy by different means and production is cheaper once the investment in power plants is amortized

So, not a lot of difference between Spain and Portugal, unfortunately. EDP, Energies of Portugal, still has a lot of power in the energy sector, however the free market of energy helped to lower the price a bit, although they are still expected to increase in the near future, but the price, for example, for renewable energy, like solar panels, is so big that few people go for it. Here, the most shocking cases of oligopoly are on fuel and gas prices. Portugal has ridiculous high fuel prices, way above than Spain's, and the fuel companies all fix prices and they are all the same. Only the low cost companies have lower prices, but they aren't that low anymore. Fixed prices to increase profits plus a huge tax burden makes gas and fuel costs a real problem for the population. Iberdrola here in Portugal has really competitive prices, are they also fixing prices in Spain?

[Mike88]

Well, so Albert Rivera has returned home... to the PP.

[Mike88]

Vox and Chega have a good relationship, except in the occassions Vox is tweeting maps pf the Spanish Empire including Portugal  and its former colonies

https://twitter.com/ivanedlm/status/1447839605974306816?t=ATHrAaR5BM8awfh2tzxupg...

CHEGA and Vox becoming closer now is mystery, to be honest. They had a very estranged relationship, almost ignoring each other, but recently they become closer. I suspect that Ventura may be, like I wrote in the Portuguese thread, seeing the colapse of Le Pen and Salvini and wants new "friendships" to remain relevant in the European far-right movement. That's my hunch. Also, the map is just ridiculous and Ventura's hails to Spain in that rally were also mocked, but it's not getting a lot of coverage because of the current "political tension/crisis" in the country.

[Mike88]

CHEGA and Vox becoming closer now is mystery, to be honest. They had a very estranged relationship, almost ignoring each other, but recently they become closer. I suspect that Ventura may be, like I wrote in the Portuguese thread, seeing the colapse of Le Pen and Salvini and wants new "friendships" to remain relevant in the European far-right movement. That's my hunch. Also, the map is just ridiculous and Ventura's hails to Spain in that rally were also mocked, but it's not getting a lot of coverage because of the current "political tension/crisis" in the country.

I listen to the news when I'm coming home after work (saving our healthcare system), but I'm not visiting this forum very often my focus is far from politics lately. I feel a bit surprised reading about political tensions or crises concerning our wise neighbours (Spain has plenty of them)

From what I've been listening, news cycle in Spain is dominated these days bu the following subjects:

- La Palma volcano, which erupted on September 19 and is still very active with no signs of decline. The ongoing eruption has caused the loss of a thousand homes, properties and valuable banana crops. Pedro Sánchez has visited the island on several occassions and is showing legitimate concern (imo). I have relatives in La Palma,  but they don't live in the area affected by the volcano.

- The skyrocketing electricity prices, which relate to structural problems extremely hard to solve. The government has presented a plan to top the exorbitant bill by limiting the extraordinary profits made by electric companies, which in turn declare war on the government. Pedro Sánchez has appealed to European insritutions with very limited success, in order to coordinate a response. In addition to tariff systems that favor the oligopoly of electric companies, European countries are facing rising gas prices and serious supply problems related to geopolitical problems (for instance: Alger us the main supplier in Spain and the country is at odds with Morocco,  due to the situation in Western Sahara) and prospects of diminishing productions. The impending energy crisis snd the scarcity of resources could eventually cause disruptions in the cjain supply (look at the situation in the UK before calling me alarmist)

-.PSOE and UP reached an agreement on the budget plan. The negotiation with parliamentary allies (ERC, PNV...) begins

- PP and opposition leader Pablo Casado have been extremely aggressive and obstructionist, especially regarding the renewal of the General Council of the Judiciary. In a surprise move the PP made a kast minute offer to the PSOE, in order to renew all the constitutional organs except the afirementioned General Council. Later a PP spokesman said "everything is possible "

- Spain is finally at low Covid risk, due to the success in the vaccination campaign.  We enter a strange pseudo-normality

Yep, when you add a bad election outcome to a budget negotiation, things get complicated and no one knows how this will end this time.

The volcano in Palma is going to remain active probably for several months. Just to compare, the last eruption in the Azores islands lasted a full year in 1957-58. The best thing to do, IMO, may be to define a big "exclusion zone" and try to live in the most normal possible way, because this is nature and you can't beat it, unfortunately.

About energy costs, how much in VAT on electricity in Spain? Here we are having the exactly same issues but with flip flops on taxes on energy and fuel which are upsetting everyone. Curious that Spain has a lower Covid rate per 100,000 inhabitants that Portugal, even though we have more share of the population fully vaccinated.

[Mike88]

A bit off topic, but this is hilarious:

https://twitter.com/ElHuffPost/status/1450847512407982083

Villarejo assures that they injected female hormones and testosterone inhibitors to the emeritus king "to lower his libido because it was considered a state problem that he was so hot"

No wonder he was "Don Juan"...

[Mike88]

Results and turnout page: https://elecciones2022ccyl.es/avances/0/castilla-y-leon

I wonder what will happen in the PP leadership if the party fails to poll first, if Casado will be in danger of being removed from office. But, we should take polls with a grain of salt.

[Mike88]

Results and turnout page: https://elecciones2022ccyl.es/avances/0/castilla-y-leon

I wonder what will happen in the PP leadership if the party fails to poll first, if Casado will be in danger of being removed from office. But, we should take polls with a grain of salt.

I assume PP not finishing first would be because of a VOX surge?

Yeah, I assume PP may be hurt by a possible surge by VOX, but the España Vaciada is also, it seems, to be draining votes from PP in rural areas. Curiously, PSOE isn't polling great also and it's likely to have a worse result than in 2019, even if they poll ahead of PP.

[Mike88]

Turnout at 51.62% at 6pm, down 2.08% compared with 2019.

[Mike88]

Keep an eye on Valladolid. It's the largest Province and the one that will probably decide if Cs is in or out of the Legislature. Francisco Igea, CyL's VP, has his seat here and would probably be the only Cs legislator elected if the party's numbers are good enough in the province. I'd wager Cs needs to get ~6% of the vote here to feel comfortable in getting the seat. Of particular importance is the party's performance's in a few of Valladolid's younger "suburbs" (Arroyo, Zaratán) and neighborhoods (Villa del Prado, Las Villas-Covaresa) where the party is strongest in the region. But who knows, D'Hondt is a pain to calculate and a few variables could change that.

Seeing how turnout is increasing the most (or at all) in exactly those places where C’s needs to get its vote out, in their shoes I’d be optimistic about at least retaining Igea’s seat. And pessimistic if I were the PSOE or, especially, the PP; turnout is dropping significantly in rural areas.

Isn't the rural vote, in Spain, more aligned with the PSOE, while the urban vote is more PP? I know that both parties have a strong base in rural areas, but doesn't the PSOE have a larger base? In past elections, the early returns are more pro-PSOE, while later returns are more PP friendly. And looking at the provincial capitals turnout data, maybe PP was able to get out their base.

[Mike88]

Isn't the rural vote, in Spain, more aligned with the PSOE, while the urban vote is more PP? I know that both parties have a strong base in rural areas, but doesn't the PSOE have a larger base? In past elections, the early returns are more pro-PSOE, while later returns are more PP friendly. And looking at the provincial capitals turnout data, maybe PP was able to get out their base.

You are right, the PP and the PSOE do better in rural areas in general, but depending on which region you are talking about, the former or the latter has the edge. What you said is true in places like Andalusia, for example, where the PSOE dominates; but in Castille and León it is the PP who has by far the most strength in rural places.

Right, right. Spain also has the difference in the rural votes between North and South. Comparing this election with national returns may in fact be misleading, as CyL may be big in size, but small in population.

[Mike88]

So far, the "polls", not exit polls, put the PP slightly ahead of PSOE, and PP+Vox have a majority. C's reduced to just one seat.

Now, let's wait for the results.

[Mike88]

So far, with 8% counted, mainly all from rural areas, PP has 37 seats, PSOE 24, VOX 14, UPL 3, SY 2 and XAV 1.

[Mike88]

Soria Ya! is leading in Soria, while PSOE is currently leading in León. Very little from urban areas as of now, around 1-2% counted in León, Burgos and Valladolid.

Also, nice results map from elDiário: https://www.eldiario.es/castilla-y-leon/resultados-elecciones-13f-castilla-leon-municipios-provincias_1_8736041.html

[Mike88]

27% counted PP 33 seats vs PSOE 28

The urban vote is starting to come in: It's close in Burgos, León is a 3 way race between UPL, PSOE and PP, in Valladolid PSOE is still leading but their margin is decreasing. In Salamanca, PP leads but the margin to the PSOE is narrowing.

[Mike88]

Seems like depending on how some of these seats go it will be either a bad night for Casado, or an absolute disaster for him. Spanish politics are very interesting right now.

Totally. His gamble is failing spectacularly, and his job could be in danger.

[Mike88]

PP could lose one seat in Salamanca. It's currently 5-3 in favour of PP, but the margin is narrowing and it could end 4-4.

[Mike88]

This is going to end with Feijóo as leader, isn't it? (Which could be quite positive for PP, in my view)

[Mike88]

This is going to end with Feijóo as leader, isn't it? (Which could be quite positive for PP, in my view)

This clash us going to end badly, I am afraid.  I guess Feijoo could be a relatively decent choice for the PP leadership (the man could be waiting for an opportunity),  but in my view the most positive outcome would be the dissolution of the PP to create a new centre-right party (Ayuso and the rightwing populists would be better in a merger with Vox). I mean, the PP is rotten since its foundation (as the Gurtel case demonstrates) and has no remedy at all. On the other hand, these two products of the 'New De-Generations' (Casado  and Ayuso) have killed the party already.

I don't know if a dissolution is the best option as it would take time, but maybe a full "nip the evil in the bud" is the best option, as in remove Casado, Ayuso and all of the "toxic" people and start a fresh. From what I understand, I don't know if I'm wrong, Ayuso may be the one that loses the most as she was a rising star but now there's more and more revelations of corruption in her administration. Casado, always had that view of him, of being a weak and "transitional" leader.

But you're right on one thing, they need to do something and quickly as the only party that will benefit from this debacle is Vox, as PSOE is also full of "problems" and will probably not benefit a lot by a PP colapse.

[Mike88]

The PP "mexican soap opera" is becoming out of hand... (to say the least)

https://twitter.com/javiernegre10/status/1495361191060856833

This is what the headquarters of @populares looks like right now from a third floor of Génova street. Shouts from @IdiazAyuso president and Casado resignation. “All this has gotten out of hand”, sources from the PP say to me

[Mike88]

I've honestly not paid as much attention as I should to the whole Casado-Ayuso fiasco, but I gotta say, I passed in front of Génova today and the front door was packed with journalists. Hopefully they got something juicy.

There was a meeting of Casado leadership team and it seems that even they are divided, with half wantin Casado to resign now, and the other half to stay and fight. At the same time, it seems that Feijóo and Ayuso have a "pact" to overthrow Casado, and she said she's not interested in the leadership. Casado says he will not resign and wants to call a snap party congress to resolve the dispute.

Curiously, this PP feud is having a lot of media coverage in Portugal, with the media basically discussing which center-right is the stupidest, the Spanish one or the Portuguese one.