Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Mike88]

GAD3 also predicts that PP will be the most voted party nationwide in the local elections with more than 1 million votes ahead of PSOE.

Unlike what GAD3 was forecasting, PP will not lead PSOE, nationwide, by more than 1 million votes. The final margin will probable be somewhere near 800,000 votes.

Avicii being played at the PP headquarters.

[Mike88]

Ximo Puig (PSOE), Valencian President, has conceded defeat.

Extremadura continues ridiculously close. It does seem that PSOE will lose power there.

[Mike88]

PSOE falls below majority in C-LM

It has regained again. It's still close. Let's wait for the final count. This is the only race still in doubt.

[Mike88]

How does the PSOE mayor of Vigo keep winning by these Assad margins?

I assume it's because of the Christmas thing. Christmas celebrations in Vigo start in August and this creates a lot of tourist revenue as tons of people flock to the city. Plus, there's a lot of publicity to the city.

[Mike88]

In the Canary islands, so far, with 16% counted, CC+PP+Vox have a majority. But again, there's still a lot to count here also.

Right now CC has 20 seats and PP 15. In all likelihood Casimiro Curbelo and NC will offer their votes to them. Vox is out of the combonations to form government, but it has outperformed previous expectations.  NC and Podemos leaders, Román Rodríguez and Noemí Santana might not be elected

What a terrible night for Spain, specially for what's left of the left. Let's get prepared for the reactionary wave

Don't understand why El País is just counting 61 seats for the islands and El Mundo 70. Whatever.

PSOE is now the 3rd political force in both Madrid city hall and regional assembly.

It's almost certain now, with 91% counted, that PSOE will hold on to their majority in Castilla-La-Mancha. The only silver lining in a really bad night for the Socialists.

[Mike88]

* The Canarian Parliament has 70 sests: 61 elected in 7 insular constituencies and 9 elected in a regional constituency

Ah, right. Not sure why El País isn't counting them. Weird that Sanchéz didn't appear and talk to reporters.

Turnout was lower than expected: 63.91%, minus 1.28% compared with 2019. Despite the small increases in the 2 and 6pm turnout updates, less voters turned out after 6pm than in other elections. The bad weather across the Peninsula may had an impact.

[Mike88]

Almost final nationwide local election results:

31.5% PP (+8.9), 23,401 (+3,037)
28.1% PSOE (-1.3), 20,778 (-1,563)
  7.2% Vox (+3.6), 1,690 (+1,160)
  2.5% Junts (nc), 2,683 (-121)
  2.3% ERC (-1.3), 2,903 (-222)
  1.6% Bildu (+0.1), 1,399 (+137)
  1.4% PNV (-0.4), 986 (-69)
  1.3% C's (-7.4), 392 (-2,395)
  1.1% BNG (+0.2), 590 (+134)
23.0% Others

63.9% Turnout (-1.3)

[Mike88]

I found it weird he didn't appear last night to talk about the results. Of course, he and his close circle were cooking up something.

He might well consider this audacious move will save the PSOE, but most likely what's left of Podemos and allies are done. In any case, nobody can say that Pedro Sánchez is not listening the message sent by the ballot boxes. Courageous or suicide, you decide

I would quote a former Portuguese PM that is now UN General Secretary during an election night in the distant year of 2001:

And if I looked at these elections and went through them as my constitutional right would perhaps be, continuing to exercise the functions of Prime Minister, the Country would inevitably fall into a political swamp that would undermine the trust relationships between rulers and ruled that are essential for Portugal to can overcome the challenges that lie ahead.

[Mike88]

Some other important updates:

- Ciudadanos to decide tomorrow if they will run in the General elections;

- Podemos and Sumar are now faced with a final decision regarding a possible coalition or not. Both parties have 10 days to reach an agreement or they will go separately to the elections;

- Could there be also elections in Galicia? The President of the region, Alfonso Rueda, is set to give a press conference in the next few hours;

- Also, the still President of Extremadura region, Guillermo Fernández Vara (PSOE), has announced he's quitting politics;

[Mike88]

Strike while the iron is hot I guess. Cause if yesterday was not a wake up call, then defeat will come whether now or at the end of the year. The Right-Wing government will come unless everyone within the coalition learns to swim rather than sink, so hopefully some will take the appropriate message.

Make sense.  This move reminds me of Schröder calling early elections in 2005 after the defeat in the North Rhine-Westphalia state election.  SPD outperformed in that election and Schröder came closer to winning that snap election than anyone expected.

There's also what happened in 2011. In the May 2011 local elections, the PSOE suffered an even larger defeat than the one yesterday and there was talk that Zapatero would call a snap election, that was only expected for March 2012. After a summer of back and forwards, he decided to call an election in late September, if I recall correctly, for November 2011 and many thought that an early election would be better for PSOE. It wasn't. The party suffered a humiliating defeat, 45-29% in favour of PP. And curious fact, even though that year's horrible result for the Socialists, they have not surpassed the 28.8% share of the vote of 2011 in any general election since then, even in the ones they polled ahead.

[Mike88]

This SER journalist reaction is funny. She's like "Elections on 23 July?? What the.... "

- Could there be also elections in Galicia? The President of the region, Alfonso Rueda, is set to give a press conference in the next few hours;

No snap elections in Galicia.

[Mike88]

First poll after the local elections and the announcement of snap general elections:

https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1663431558655508480

[Mike88]

I think folks in the PSOE are not fully aware of what is coming ahead. A rightwing victory wouldn't be a comeback to Aznar or Rajoy. A PP-VOX government will be something much worse,  a true reactionary involution.

I don't see Feijóo as radical or reactionary, on the contrary. As Galician President he was a moderate and seems to fall in line with the Moreno Bonilla trend inside the PP. However, I'm not sure how he will handle Vox or even how Vox will manage being that close to power. We can't rule out anything but I wouldn't be surprised if in 2 years or so, if the PP wins the July elections of course, the PP+Vox deals collapses and Feijóo tries to win a majority of his own.

[Mike88]

I think folks in the PSOE are not fully aware of what is coming ahead. A rightwing victory wouldn't be a comeback to Aznar or Rajoy. A PP-VOX government will be something much worse,  a true reactionary involution.

I don't see Feijóo as radical or reactionary, on the contrary. As Galician President he was a moderate and seems to fall in line with the Moreno Bonilla trend inside the PP. However, I'm not sure how he will handle Vox or even how Vox will manage being that close to power. We can't rule out anything but I wouldn't be surprised if in 2 years or so, if the PP wins the July elections of course, the PP+Vox deals collapses and Feijóo tries to win a majority of his own.

Feijóo is just a conservative man from Galicia. The problem is that he is not the actual leader of the PP,  just the person who provisionally puts his face in electoral posters.  The forces that drive the PP nowadays are in Madrid. On the other hand, the PP will need Vox to govern. Santiago Abascal will demand to be Deputy PM and some portfolios for Vox. Pretty soon the right-wing coalition will revoke progressive legislation and implement a reactionary agenda, cutting social and civic rights, as well prosecuting migrants and minorities. I have little doubt about that

I'm not saying you're wrong about the PP now being "ruled" by the Madrid local branch, but, again, Feijóo is Galician and I live in Northern Portugal, we have similar quirks and when we are stubborn, we are stubborn. I think that, once in power, we cannot rule out that Feijóo would want to do things on his own way. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Mike, stop deluding yourself, Feijoo will sell out the Catalans, minority language rights, basic womens rights etc for a taste of power. To get what he got he allied with Ayuso the ultimate populist right figure. Velasco is right, a PP-Vox government is the beginning of Orbanisation in Spain, a reversal of the Autonomies, and the deep state  that includes the intelligence services, police, activist lawyers - that in Spain are all right-wing! - but also the higher education system will all be captured politically.

Vox wants to invoke Art. 155 the moment they get into the coalition. Watch out for ERC calling a snap election in the process and yet again the Catalan nationalists gaining ground despite Sanchez and Podemos the "golpistas, rojas y ultraizquierdistas" actually demotivating and breaking the Catalan momentum.

No offense man but people like you are kind of the problem in European democracy overall, just bland centre-right people that see a blue rosette and think its the same as back home. Take a good look at how Metsola will condemn Orban and Poland for politicising the judiciary because they are Eastern European and the governing parties are not in the EPP but has yet to say anything about how incredibly politicised the Spanish and Greek intelligence services are.

No offense taken. In this forum we debate things and sometimes we have to agree to disagree.

I'm not those who have a black or white view of things, sometimes gray stuff happens. We assume this is going to happen, but I'm not sure what will happen. Sanchéz could win, not likely but who knows, and the PP could even reach a near majority result that would make Vox irrelevant, again, not likely but who knows. Spain is a country with very complicated circumstances that even for me, a neighbor country citizen, are difficult to understand and grasp. The territorial issue is very complicated and it's not like it is a right vs left thing, even within the PSOE people like Gonzaléz and Page don't agree with many of Sanchéz decisions regarding the Catalan issue. Again, I live in a country that is a unitarian nation state for centuries that doesn't have territorial issues, things like regional parties are even forbidden, so, each European country has its own characteristics.

I don't agree on what Poland or Hungary are doing, but that's my opinion from a Portuguese point of view. My country isn't perfect and the issue of European democracy, like you put it, in my view is this: We are part of a community of countries that have to follow some basic rules, the rule of law, respect for one and another, free trade, etc., but, if there are countries that don't like to follow rules and think that they are better than the rest, fine, but they have to face the consequences, even if that means being kicked out of the EU, just look at the mess the UK has turned into. And I'm not sure many will accept those consequences.

[Mike88]

Former judge Juan Pedro Yllanes, Podemos member and deputy premier in Balearic Islands, asks for resignations in the Podemos national leadership. He says that it's surprising that Ione Belarra, Pablo Echenique and Lilith Verstrynge haven't dissapeared from the political scene after the debacle.  Podemos has lost parliamentary representation in the regional parliaments of Madrid, Valencia and the Canary Islands. Additionally its representation in Aragon, Asturias and the Balearic Islands has been resuced to a single member. Yllanes also pointed to Pablo Iglesias, even though avoiding to say his name explicitly. He said that resigning political responsibilities and ruling the party from the outside is not a good strategy. Yllanes is one of the Podemos members in the regions that gave support to Yolanda Díaz and Sumar,  even though he didn't attend the launchinvent at Magariños Pavillion in Madrid

Have negotiations between Sumar and Podemos already started? I know that Yolanda Díaz has registered her party but not sure if the talks already started. They have just 10 days to figure out a way out. Although those 10 days only start counting when the official dissolution bulletin is published, which I think hasn't happened yet.

[Mike88]

She's back:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1663916524011233281

Macarena Olona has registered a political party called 'Caminemos Juntos' with which she will run for the generals on the next #23J.

Not sure what's the goal of her party, but whatever.

[Mike88]

Ayuso lost one seat after the overseas ballots were counted. Vox wins that seat from her.

Also, Macarena Olona revealed the name and logo of her party type thing, and it's... well... you decide:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1664610614264619010

Walking together, Macarena Olona's new party, already has a graphic identity.

Playing with Red and Blue, the logo forms a kind of Elephant.

Calls for a referendum between Monarchy and Republic.

[Mike88]

The 9 June deadline to submit coalition candidacies is fast approaching and tensions are rising within Podemos:

- Más País and Compromís have reached a deal with Sumar and will run in coalition with Díaz party;

- However, within Podemos tensions are rising as regional and local leaders are pressing the national leadership to sign a deal with Sumar and there's contradicting staments of the state of the negociations. If Sumar believes the a deal with Podemos is "close", Pablo Echenique, from Podemos, says that talks are very late and that a deal should have happen by now;

We'll see the outcome. Possibly a last, last, last minute deal is the likely end of this story but we'll see.

[Mike88]

After C's, Foro Asturias and PRC also drop out from the elections:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1666907562548101140

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1666890537339609089

[Mike88]

Less than 24 hours to the deadline to register electoral coalitions...
Apart of the "shell party" bluff, Podemos are pushing to the limit the negotiations, with an "express" internal online voting to their party base about approve having "full powers" in the talks or better said, approve to join Sumar, the vote closes in just hours at 11:00 CET, the Valencian branch of Podemos tempts to ran alone whatever the national direction decides today, other regional branches seems more favorable to join Sumar.

Podemos members vote 93% in favour of giving full powers to the party's leadership regarding the Sumar/Podemos negociations:

https://twitter.com/La_SER/status/1667108765647216641

92.92% of Podemos members support supporting the party leadership in whatever it decides on Sumar

Both parties now have precisely 12 hours to reach an agreement, or not.

[Mike88]

UPN will be running separately from PP for the first time ever. With the right vote divided, the most likely seat distribution in Navarre is PSOE 2 (+1), UPN 1 (-1 compared to NA+), Sumar/UP 1, Bildu 1

We have an April poll from GAD3 that has the PP at 22% and UPN at 7% for a general election matchup.

Possible, as regional parties do worse in a general election. But with the right wing vote divided it's still a likely gain for PSOE.

Maybe, nonetheless, it will be close. Bildu is expected to do well again and Vox could also win a seat, although I think it's still a long shot. It could be 1 seat for the 5 main parties, or 1/2 for the biggest party, either PP or PSOE, and 1 for Bildu and Sumar.

[Mike88]

New GAD3 poll:

https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1667973033158377474

Interesting that it follows the trend of some of the latest polls that show a growing PP-PSOE bipolarization, with Vox losing to PP and Sumar to PSOE.

But, we still have a month and a half until the election.

[Mike88]

4. Hallmarks (identity signs) to defend and recover our hallmarks

I don't get this. What does this even mean?

[Mike88]

4. Hallmarks (identity signs) to defend and recover our hallmarks

I don't get this. What does this even mean?

"Hallmarks (identity signs)" is the most important thing in Spanish politics, so I am surprised you don't get it.

I know it's a major deal in Spain, but I honestly didn't get it at first. For a Portuguese there's some Spanish things that we sometimes have to ask, "I beg your pardon?"