This helped explain to me why Biden only won PA by 1%. If I looked at the 16-20 Swing Map or the County Map, it looks more like a 2-3% D Win than a 1% D Win. It was a 1% D Win because of PA-02 swinging 7% to the right.
That and the rurals barely budging despite the widespread heralding of Biden as the guy who could bring the WWC back. Dems in R-trending states need to realize that old demographics aren't naturally coming back, and they need new coalitions.
I don't think anyone expected Biden to receive Obama numbers in Rural PA. No one thought Biden would flip back Carbon County, Cambria County, Or Elk County. Biden however did well in Erie, and it voted within 0.1% of the state as a whole. He also flipped Northampton which voted for Trump by nearly 4% in 2016. Biden did well enough In NEPA, receiving more votes than Obama in Luzerne.
Not quite sure what you are talking about, Biden won PA because he improved with WWC voters, particularly in the eastern part of the state. Few people said Biden would win by Obama/Bill Clinton margins.
