Pennsylvania by district: 2016 vs 2020
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  Pennsylvania by district: 2016 vs 2020
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Author Topic: Pennsylvania by district: 2016 vs 2020  (Read 550 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: February 22, 2021, 11:38:21 AM »

Biden made HUGE inroads in a ton of districts, but it looks like the downfall was PA-02 actually, where he fell 7% behind Clintons showing (a lot of this district is Philly)

If he had held steady with Clinton's margin from 2016 in PA-02, he likely would've won the state by closer to even 3%, which is what a lot of the rest of the districts seem to point towards.

PA-01
Clinton +2.0
Biden +5.8
(Net: Biden +3.8 )

PA-02
Clinton +48.0
Biden +41.0
(Net: Trump +7)

PA-03
Clinton +83.9
Biden +83.2
(Net: Trump +0.7)

PA-04
Clinton +19.3
Biden +24.1
(Net: Biden +5.2)

PA-05
Clinton +28.2
Biden +31.1
(Net: Biden +2.9)

PA-06
Clinton +9.3
Biden +15.8
(Net: Biden +6.5)

PA-07
Clinton +0.9
Biden +4.8
(Net: Biden +3.9)

PA-08
Trump +9.4
Trump +4.4
(Net: Biden +5)

PA-09
Trump +34.0
Trump +30.4
(Net: Biden +3.6)

PA-10
Trump +8.9
Trump +2.9
(Net: Biden +5.1)

PA-11
Trump +25.8
Trump +21.9
(Net: Biden +3.9)

PA-12
Trump +36.4
Trump +36.1
(Net: Biden +0.3)

PA-13
Trump +45.7
Trump +44.4
(Net: Biden +1.4)

PA-14
Trump +29.0
Trump +27.5
(Net: Biden +1.5)

PA-15
Trump +43.3
Trump +43.7
(Net: Trump +0.4)

PA-16
Trump +20.0
Trump +18.7
(Net: Biden +1.3)

PA-17
Trump +2.6
Biden +2.7
(Net: Biden +5.3)

PA-18
Clinton +27.5
Biden +30.1
(Net: Biden +2.6)
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2021, 08:45:49 PM »

Isn't PA-02 Brandon Boyle's district? If I'm correct, it encompasses Northeast Philadelphia, where Trump improved noticeably last year. I know that Biden did worse in Philadelphia as a whole than Clinton. Biden got 20,000 more votes than Clinton did, but Trump received ~24,000 more votes than he did previously. In other words, Philadelphia's results were a net gain for Trump.
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Mexican Wolf
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« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2021, 09:01:29 PM »

Interesting that the only districts that had pro-Trump swings were both in Philly, but I guess that follows the trend of Trump doing relatively better in most urban areas across the country than he did in 2016.

I'm happy my district had the strongest pro-Biden swing in PA.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2021, 11:44:50 AM »

Interesting that the only districts that had pro-Trump swings were both in Philly, but I guess that follows the trend of Trump doing relatively better in most urban areas across the country than he did in 2016.

I'm happy my district had the strongest pro-Biden swing in PA.
PA-15 too.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2021, 05:03:11 PM »

This helped explain to me why Biden only won PA by 1%. If I looked at the 16-20 Swing Map or the County Map, it looks more like a 2-3% D Win than a 1% D Win. It was a 1% D Win because of PA-02 swinging 7% to the right.
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If my soul was made of stone
discovolante
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2021, 05:05:26 PM »

This helped explain to me why Biden only won PA by 1%. If I looked at the 16-20 Swing Map or the County Map, it looks more like a 2-3% D Win than a 1% D Win. It was a 1% D Win because of PA-02 swinging 7% to the right.

That and the rurals barely budging despite the widespread heralding of Biden as the guy who could bring the WWC back. Dems in R-trending states need to realize that old demographics aren't naturally coming back, and they need new coalitions.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2021, 10:19:22 PM »

This helped explain to me why Biden only won PA by 1%. If I looked at the 16-20 Swing Map or the County Map, it looks more like a 2-3% D Win than a 1% D Win. It was a 1% D Win because of PA-02 swinging 7% to the right.

That and the rurals barely budging despite the widespread heralding of Biden as the guy who could bring the WWC back. Dems in R-trending states need to realize that old demographics aren't naturally coming back, and they need new coalitions.
I don't think anyone expected Biden to receive Obama numbers in Rural PA. No one thought Biden would flip back Carbon County, Cambria County, Or Elk County. Biden however did well in Erie, and it voted within 0.1% of the state as a whole. He also flipped Northampton which voted for Trump by nearly 4% in 2016. Biden did well enough In NEPA, receiving more votes than Obama in Luzerne.

Not quite sure what you are talking about, Biden won PA because he improved with WWC voters, particularly in the eastern part of the state. Few people said Biden would win by Obama/Bill Clinton margins.
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