How will Harris County, TX swing & trend?

[Woody]

?

[jamestroll]

It will probably trend GOP a bit but the Democrats wont be endangered of losing it.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I think it's swings R by 2 to 5 points.

[Frenchrepublican]

It will vote dem for sure but it could trend a bit R, especially if Biden doesn't win back the ground lost with hispanics and/or if the wealthy suburbs like River Oaks swing back a bit to the right.

[Skill and Chance]

If Biden is the nominee again, he probably holds serve or narrowly gains.  If the nominee is someone else who can more easily be painted as out of touch, elitist, or prioritizing environmental concerns over jobs, it will swing R.  I could see Harris only winning it 52/46 or so, while doing better in Fort Bend. 

[AGA]

Too early to say with any confidence.

[South Dakota Democrat]

?

Weren't you supposed to leave the forum for a year?

[Progressive Pessimist]

?

Weren't you supposed to leave the forum for a year?

He was. I think this response is the new "has your kiddy diddler concede yet?"

[MargieCat]

I think it will trend leftward by a couple percentage points.

The democrats didn't in-person canvas this year while republicans did.

In a non-COVID election, democrats will get better margins.

Even if only 58/41 like Beto got in 2018.

[Calthrina950]

?

Weren't you supposed to leave the forum for a year?

He was. I think this response is the new "has your kiddy diddler concede yet?"

Wasn't Landslide Lyndon-who hasn't posted on here in quite some time now-the one who originally used that phrase? I can't remember who it was used against, however.

[Real Texan Politics]

I swear we're more focused on SirWoodbury than on the thread question itself.

Anyways I think it may slightly trend to the right if republicans improve with WWC, hispanics, and the suburbs, but either way it's likely D (closer to safe).

[Skill and Chance]

I think it will trend leftward by a couple percentage points.

The democrats didn't in-person canvas this year while republicans did.

In a non-COVID election, democrats will get better margins.

Even if only 58/41 like Beto got in 2018.

I'm not at all convinced that Dem canvassing in 2020 would have produced a net gain.  Even if it increased base turnout marginally, it would fuel the hypocrisy narrative to high heaven and turn off some single issue COVID voters.  In a post-COVID world, I do expect marginal Dem gains from renewed canvassing, but you don't magically get back to 2012 numbers in disadvantaged communities just because you knocked on doors.