1956.

[WalterMitty]

on january 13, 1956, president dwight eisenhower shocked the nation by announcing that due to health concerns, he would not be seeking reelection.

it was widely thought that his young vice president, richard nixon would offer himself as a candidate.  however, on january 21, nixon announced that a presidential run would take too much time away from his family.  he planned to return to california.  he did not, however, rule out a presidential run sometime in the future.

at the republican convention, the delagates rallied behind two time presidential candidate,tom dewey.  dewey was eager to have another shot at the presidency.  the 54 year old former ny governor had never gotten over his previous two defeats.

for his running mate, dewey selected the 61 year old scholarly governor of massachusetts, christian herter.

the democrats nominated tennessee senator estes kefauver.  kefauver had never really stopped running for president since 52.  he had a broad base of support within the democrat party. 

for his running mate, kefauver selected former ny governor averell harriman

whittaker chambers, the former communist who outed alger hiss was unhappy with the republican ticket.  calling the ticket 'liberal' he was unsure of dewey and herter's committment to stamping out communism.

chambers offered himself as a third party candidate.  in a shocking move, chambers named democrat senator jon sparkman as his running mate.  sparkman was the democrat nominee for vp just 4 years earlier.

how does this race shape out?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In the south, Kefauver's reusal to sign the Southern Manifesto leads a groundswell of support for the third party Chamber's campaign.  Kefauver also gains from the endorsement of Nixon, who thus repays the favor that Chamber's testimony before the HUAC did for Nixon's career.  However health concerns keep Chambers from getting more than 20% outside of the South and California.

Kefauver does better than Stevenson did in 1952 (or 1956), but at the end of the day, its:

Dewey: 358
Kefauver: 146 (+4)
Chambers: 19 (+4)
Unpledged Electors: 8  (4 vote for Chambers, 4 for Kefauver)

[Lincoln Republican]

Dewey's proven leadership and executive record as an experienced Governor and before that as a highly successful crime busting District Attorney propels Dewey, finally, into the White House.  The presence of Herter with Dewey on the ticket gives voters the assurance that this ticket is solid and capable.

The northeast and much of the midwest is solidly behind Dewey and Herter, and Dewey manages to persuade the plains, mountain, and western states that he is best qualified to be President.  They agree and give him a solid vote of confidence.

Kefauver's hopes to finally reach the Oval Office are dashed.  Against what is perceived to be by most southerners, at least, as a rather liberal, northeastern, Republican ticket, Kefauver manages to hold onto most of the "solid south" for the Democrats.  Most southerners decide to go with fellow southerner Kefauver, as opposed to two northeastern Republicans with a liberal bent.  Harriman on the ticket does not help Kefauver make gains in the northeast or midwest, as the Republican ticket connects much more with these areas than does Harriman, who, after all, is only the VP nominee.  They prefer to go with Dewey. 

Chambers and Sparkman manage a breakthgough in four, conservative, southern states. 

Overall, a solid and convincing win for Dewey. 

President Elect Dewey sets right to work in bringing the south into his administration, with several visits to southern states before his inauguration, announcing, as much as possible, without compromising his equality values, some southern friendly policies, and bringing with him southerners who are to become part of his new administration.   

Dewey/Herter                    377
Kefauver/Harriman            117
Herter/Sparkman                37

[WalterMitty]

would chambers/sparkman have any shot at any conservative western states : idaho, utah, or montana?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

would chambers/sparkman have any shot at any conservative western states : idaho, utah, or montana?

They'd have achance to break into the double digits there percentage-wise, but I don't think that anyplace outside the South would vote third party in the 1950's in a large way.

[Lincoln Republican]

Could Chambers/Sparkman win in any conservative western states?

I personally doubt it.

I believe these states, reliably Republican by 1956, would go with the proven leadership of the Republican nominee Dewey.  I believe that Dewey, during the course of the campaign, would be able to quell most doubts western conservatives may have about his leadership.

I rather suspect that Dewey, in a campaign such as this one, would modify some his views to appeal to parts of the south but moreso certainly to the west.

I believe as well that in such an election as this that Dewey would have chosen a Vice Presidential running mate either from the midwest or from the west, hopefully a conservative to moderate Governor or Senator, or possibly another high profile public figure not at the time in elected office.

With the three tickets you have used in your scenario, which would be a most interesting turn of events by the way, I have absolutely no doubt, though, that Dewey would win the election handily and by a substantial margin, even with another northeasterner on the ticket.  Although, in reality, there is now way Dewey would have picked another northeasterner for his VP.        

[WalterMitty]

but, winfield, dewey had a western vp choice in 48 and lost. 

in my scenario he does the 'bill clinton'.  he picks someone of his same region and same ideology to be his running mate.

[Lincoln Republican]

Yes, that's true, Dewey had a western running mate in 1948 and lost, however, the running mate choice was not why he lost the election. 

The reasons for Dewey's loss in 1948 are many and varied.  When it comes right down to it, I believe, the base reason is because Dewey believed he had the election in the bag, and decided to simply coast to victory.

By the time Dewey and the Republicans realized the election was not such a sure thing, it was too late to stop the momentum gained by Truman.

Your theory is interesting, picking someone of like ideology and from the same region.  And with these three tickets that you have named, I have no doubt but what Dewey would have won handily, with the running mate you gave him.  In fact, Dewey would have won this election in your scenario, regardless of who his running mate was.

To make this election really dejavu, perhaps Dewey could have picked, again, John Bricker of Ohio for VP, his running mate from 1944.  Bricker, Governor of Ohio 1939-1945, and U.S. Senator from Ohio since 1947.  Now that would have been an interesting turn of events, the same ticket defeated in 1944 elected 12 years later in 1956.