Which Governor up for re-election between now & 2022 do you think is most vulnerable to defeat?

[Frenchrepublican]

The three most vulnerable governors are :

1. Kemp who is in danger to lose the primary and if he survives the primary he who would likely lose the general election

2. Evers who is not that popular and who could be defeated by the climate

3. Kelly who will have to battle her state lean in a likely difficult climate

[Frenchrepublican]

Brian Kemp, for sure, because he will likely be the only candidate to face both a competitive primary and GE.

Some honorable mentions:

Laura Kelly for the Ds in the GE. Overcoming likely high GOP turnout in a Biden midterm will be hard here. Unlike some people, I hardly think she's doomed. But she is probably an underdog.

Greg Abbott for the Rs in the GE. He's still favored, but is governing like he is governor of Tennessee, not Texas. He probably arrogantly thinks he will cruise in 22, and then can run for Prez. However, he is going to be dealing with a much more hostile electorate than he thinks in the midterm. The kind of educated, suburban, wealthy voters who are most likely to turn out are trending away from the GOP in Texas, while many working class types who turned out for Trump in places like the panhandle and RGV are certainly far from certain to turn out without him on the ballot. If he isn't careful, the right Dem candidate could catch him off guard.

Andrew Cuomo in the primary for Ds. I don't care about opinion polls with inconclusive answers just a few days into a scandal that's obviously going to get much worse for him. The more the media turns on him, the more likely a challenger from his left might be able to sneak past him. The question is who?

Mike DeWine in the primary for Rs. I don't think he will be vulnerable if he makes it through the primary, and might even be able to win moderates by virtue of juxtaposition against some crazy. But he will surely be targeted more than maybe any incumbent beside Kemp in the primary.

Sure Jan

Texas is still a R+10 to R+13 state, yeah it has trended to the left between 2012 and 2018, yeah Texas is unlikely to vote again like it did during the Bush era, yeah democrats have now a relatively high floor of 42% or 43%, now once we have said that it is still a very red state. If everything goes well for dems they could eventually come close to flip the AG office, assuming Paxton doesn't retire / he is not defeated in the primary, but they have no chance against Abbott, Abbott has a double digits positive approval rate and was the top vote getter in 2018, he will likely win reelection by 14 points or something like that.

Also democrats should really stop with this idea that republican voters only care about Trump and won't vote when he is not on the ballot, it is absurd, yeah some 2020 GOP voters are not going to vote next year, but democrats have also a large swath of low propensity voters, so no, the electorate won't be much more dem friendly than in 2020.

[Frenchrepublican]

Brian Kemp, for sure, because he will likely be the only candidate to face both a competitive primary and GE.

Some honorable mentions:

Laura Kelly for the Ds in the GE. Overcoming likely high GOP turnout in a Biden midterm will be hard here. Unlike some people, I hardly think she's doomed. But she is probably an underdog.

Greg Abbott for the Rs in the GE. He's still favored, but is governing like he is governor of Tennessee, not Texas. He probably arrogantly thinks he will cruise in 22, and then can run for Prez. However, he is going to be dealing with a much more hostile electorate than he thinks in the midterm. The kind of educated, suburban, wealthy voters who are most likely to turn out are trending away from the GOP in Texas, while many working class types who turned out for Trump in places like the panhandle and RGV are certainly far from certain to turn out without him on the ballot. If he isn't careful, the right Dem candidate could catch him off guard.

Andrew Cuomo in the primary for Ds. I don't care about opinion polls with inconclusive answers just a few days into a scandal that's obviously going to get much worse for him. The more the media turns on him, the more likely a challenger from his left might be able to sneak past him. The question is who?

Mike DeWine in the primary for Rs. I don't think he will be vulnerable if he makes it through the primary, and might even be able to win moderates by virtue of juxtaposition against some crazy. But he will surely be targeted more than maybe any incumbent beside Kemp in the primary.

Sure Jan

Texas is still a R+10 to R+13 state, yeah it has trended to the left between 2012 and 2018, yeah Texas is unlikely to vote again like it did during the Bush era, yeah democrats have now a relatively high floor of 42% or 43%, now once we have said that it is still a very red state. If everything goes well for dems they could eventually come close to flip the AG office, assuming Paxton doesn't retire / he is not defeated in the primary, but they have no chance against Abbott, Abbott has a double digits positive approval rate and was the top vote getter in 2018, he will likely win reelection by 14 points or something like that.

Also democrats should really stop with this idea that republican voters only care about Trump and won't vote when he is not on the ballot, it is absurd, yeah some 2020 GOP voters are not going to vote next year, but democrats have also a large swath of low propensity voters, so no, the electorate won't be much more dem friendly than in 2020.

Republicans haven't won TX by 10+ since 2012.

2014 ? 2016 (for the congressional races) ?

Also I'm talking about the relative of the state, a R+X state means the state in question leans X points to the right of the country.