Under the current district lines, Biden won 224 CDs to Trump's 209 in the 2020 election. MO-2 was very close and different people have gotten different results of Biden and Trump narrowly winning the district. In Pennsylvania, there isn't enough data to calculate who won each district though PA-17 is the only district really in question. However, had gerrymanders in VA, NC, FL, and PA been resolved through the courts, it's likely Trump would've narrowly won the majority of congressional districts.
Anyways, this was my prediction:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=7hqeAnd to my surprise, Trump actually narrowly won a majority of CDs in my prediction to how redistricting would go. This does give both sides the benefit of the doubt in states where they largely or fully control redistricting, and even just one small decision, especially in these larger states where there are more possibilities as to what could happen, would swing the majority over to Biden.
I do think that in 2022, there will be very, very few swing districts since swing districts are pretty rarely used in gerrymanders, and are unlikely too this cycle since most notable states where one side has complete control over redistricting also has eroding support in that state (GA, TX, NY, IL, ect). The battle for the House could come down to just a few districts which would probably actually benefit Democrats since they could have a more targetted wave-prevention effort whereas in 2018, the GOP had too many districts they had to be worried about.
Anyways, what do ya'll think?
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