Guess who won?

Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member

Posts: 2,299

Political Matrix
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Guess who won?

« on: February 16, 2021, 09:10:01 PM »

I didn't know where to put this..

Below is a blank map with EV totals on it. Guess who won and who won the new states that have been draw. DC has 3 EV

Also, this is 2020 numbers.

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hyouzel the predictor
hyouzel
Jr. Member

Posts: 497

Re: Guess who won?

« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2021, 11:58:29 PM »

My guesses for each state in terms of certainty

Safe Biden: West Coast Districts (14+14+23), Greater Chicago (17), the NoVA/MD/DE district (14), NJ/NYC (31), South NJ and PA (12), Connecticut and Massachusetts (12+7), Arizona/IE district (24), Weird Vermonty thing and south NH and ME (4+4), DC (3) (183 EV)
Lean Biden: the NV/East CA district (11), the Mississippi River district (6), Greater New Mexico (5), Northern Georgia (14) (36 EV)
Tilt Biden: MN (8.), South Florida (19), Erie area (9), Big Michigan (19) (55 EV)

Tilt Trump: Big Colorado (14), East TX (24), Big Wisconsin (12), United Virginia (12) (62 EV)
Lean Trump: Non Coastal WA and OR with ID (7), ME-02 and northern NH (4), Upstate NY (10), Coastal Carolinas (18) (39EV)
Safe Trump: KS/NE/SD/ND/OK/MO/IA/AR/LA/TN/KY/Downstate IL/IN/Southern Ohio/PA/West TX/Gulf Florida/South GA/AK/MT (163EV)

Basically a narrow Biden victory

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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member

Posts: 2,299

Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

Re: Guess who won?

« Reply #2 on: February 17, 2021, 10:17:52 PM »

any other guesses? I figured this would have more feedback Confused

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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member

Posts: 2,299

Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

Re: Guess who won?

« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2021, 10:52:44 PM »

Quote from: Senator Perdue 2015-2021 on February 16, 2021, 11:58:29 PM

You have 7 states wrong

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ultraviolet
Jr. Member

Posts: 1,954

Political Matrix
E: 0.71, S: -3.22

Re: Guess who won?

« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2021, 03:28:00 PM »

Quote from: Vern on February 17, 2021, 10:52:44 PM

Quote from: Senator Perdue 2015-2021 on February 16, 2021, 11:58:29 PM

You have 7 states wrong

I’ll try to figure out what he got wrong. I assume NV is red because Clark got removed from it. Maybe also the Mississippi River state. Potentially Michigan too. That’s three.

Then also Colorado I think is blue. Now I’m kinda stuck. I’ll guess that east Texas is blue, south Florida is red, and Carolina is blue.

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hyouzel the predictor
hyouzel
Jr. Member

Posts: 497

Re: Guess who won?

« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2021, 04:04:00 PM »

Quote from: Vern on February 17, 2021, 10:52:44 PM

Quote from: Senator Perdue 2015-2021 on February 16, 2021, 11:58:29 PM

You have 7 states wrong

Oh wow ok. Are Hennepin and Ramsey in WI or MN?

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bagelman
Junior Chimp

Posts: 8,644

Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

Re: Guess who won?

« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2021, 06:49:57 PM »

am I closer than the previous guess was? Carolina might have also voted Biden.

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Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon

Posts: 12,851

	Re: Guess who won? « Reply #7 on: February 18, 2021, 07:31:37 PM »
	« Edited: February 18, 2021, 07:34:39 PM by Skill and Chance »

The East Carolina state could plausibly be Dem.

Biden's CO margin was so high and CO so much more populous than the surrounding areas that I could also see the "Greater Colorado" state voting narrowly for Biden.

With all of the Dem NOVA counties in the "Greater Maryland" state, the "Greater Virginia" state is nearly safe GOP. It might even vote R in 2020 without adding the bulk of WV?

Upstate NY appears to be missing Buffalo and could plausibly vote GOP if Albany is in one of the alternative New England states and it goes deep enough into rural PA?

However, that would mean the Cleveland-Erie-Buffalo lakeshore state could be narrowly Dem?

I'm confident the 3 point Biden margin in MI isn't enough to absorb the blood red rural territory added to "Greater Michigan," so that one votes GOP.

Whichever of the alternative MN and WI states doesn't have the Twin Cities is going to vote GOP. Alternative WI is missing Milwaukee, so it is an easy GOP win if it doesn't have MSP.

Memphis is enough by itself to flip real Mississippi, so I have to assume the Delta state votes Dem.

East Texas is going to still vote R. Grouping Dallas with Houston isn't enough. For comparison, grouping Austin with El Paso and the RGV generates a state that is only Lean D (maybe Likely D in 2016).

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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member

Posts: 2,299

Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

	Re: Guess who won? « Reply #8 on: February 19, 2021, 12:13:44 PM »
	« Edited: February 19, 2021, 12:21:47 PM by Vern »

Quote from: bagelman on February 18, 2021, 06:49:57 PM

am I closer than the previous guess was? Carolina might have also voted Biden.

You missed 9 states.

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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member

Posts: 2,299

Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

Re: Guess who won?

« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2021, 12:19:53 PM »

Quote from: Senator Perdue 2015-2021 on February 18, 2021, 04:04:00 PM

Quote from: Vern on February 17, 2021, 10:52:44 PM

Quote from: Senator Perdue 2015-2021 on February 16, 2021, 11:58:29 PM

You have 7 states wrong

Oh wow ok. Are Hennepin and Ramsey in WI or MN?

One is in MN, one is in WI. 😄

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hyouzel the predictor
hyouzel
Jr. Member

Posts: 497

Re: Guess who won?

« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2021, 12:30:11 PM »

Quote from: Vern on February 19, 2021, 12:19:53 PM

Quote from: Senator Perdue 2015-2021 on February 18, 2021, 04:04:00 PM

Quote from: Vern on February 17, 2021, 10:52:44 PM

Quote from: Senator Perdue 2015-2021 on February 16, 2021, 11:58:29 PM

You have 7 states wrong

Oh wow ok. Are Hennepin and Ramsey in WI or MN?

One is in MN, one is in WI. 😄

Is this any better

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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member

Posts: 2,299

Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

Re: Guess who won?

« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2021, 07:17:23 PM »

Quote from: Senator Perdue 2015-2021 on February 19, 2021, 12:30:11 PM

Quote from: Vern on February 19, 2021, 12:19:53 PM

Quote from: Senator Perdue 2015-2021 on February 18, 2021, 04:04:00 PM

Quote from: Vern on February 17, 2021, 10:52:44 PM

Quote from: Senator Perdue 2015-2021 on February 16, 2021, 11:58:29 PM

You have 7 states wrong

Oh wow ok. Are Hennepin and Ramsey in WI or MN?

One is in MN, one is in WI. 😄

Is this any better

You got 9 wrong

I'm about to post the results.

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Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member

Posts: 2,299

Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

Re: Guess who won?

« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2021, 08:55:10 PM »

And the results are in and here it is!

Biden: 271 Trump: 267

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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
Junior Chimp

Posts: 5,092

Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -4.96

Re: Guess who won?

« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2021, 07:50:32 PM »

Cool

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Andrew Yang 2024
Captain Thunder
Rookie

Posts: 140

Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -1.39

Re: Guess who won?

« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2021, 10:30:57 PM »

And this is what we call CHAOS.

(And a cool map too).

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