Covid wars launch DeSantis into GOP ‘top tier’

[Pericles]

DeSantis clambers over thousands of bodies to grab a few extra points in the polls-disgusting.

[Pericles]

To be fair, Florida is 28/50 in confirmed deaths per million. Perhaps Florida's government skewed the numbers, but I doubt they could have pulled off a coverup that extreme. Deaths are the best way still to measure how different areas have done, since case numbers are skewed by varying levels of testing, and preventing deaths and serious illness is the most important objective. It is kind of surprising since Florida is a very elderly state, maybe the weather helped it since Covid's seasonality has been a factor in increasing transmission.

Most of the highest confirmed deaths per million are in Northeastern states, with most of the damage for them coming in March and April last year. For example in New York (which has the second highest number of deaths per million), the first wave peak in deaths was massive and was higher than even states like Arizona experienced this winter, and then it didn't do significantly better than the nation in this winter (perhaps it was hurt by being a cold, urbanised state). New York's total daily death numbers in the first wave were similar to European countries like Italy with three times its population. It's not so simple as saying that this means lockdowns don't work or whatever, because the highest transmission that baked in those huge death tolls happened when there weren't any Covid restrictions yet.

[Pericles]

Actually, Florida's levels of excess deaths (17% above normal) are below the national average (21% above normal), so that suggests that the official death toll hasn't been massively skewed (though it still does undercount the deaths).
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/14/us/covid-19-death-toll.html

I'm not sure what DeSantis has done to minimize deaths, more likely there is something about Florida that makes it less vulnerable but I'm not sure what the answer is.

[Pericles]

Actually, Florida's levels of excess deaths (17% above normal) are below the national average (21% above normal), so that suggests that the official death toll hasn't been massively skewed (though it still does undercount the deaths).
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/14/us/covid-19-death-toll.html

I'm not sure what DeSantis has done to minimize deaths, more likely there is something about Florida that makes it less vulnerable but I'm not sure what the answer is.

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I want to say it's the warm weather, but studies haven't conclusively shown that cold temps and dry air make COVID-19 easier to spread, like with cold and flu viruses. Maybe Floridians are less likely to have preexisting conditions (POTUS # 45 notwithstanding)?

There is a seasonal effect, though it seems to be more that colder weather forces people indoors into poorly ventilated spaces more. The cooling weather coincided with the US daily case numbers going into the hundreds of thousands and the second wave sweeping across Europe. Though the correlation isn't extremely strong, some of the highest per capita death rates are in the Sunbelt. Here is the CDC's map, which covers the entire pandemic (weirdly, it's New York numbers don't include New York City-which has a higher death rate than any state).

[Pericles]

The extreme weather theory does seem plausible, but the actual data seems to point to something different. While Arizona had higher deaths per million than the nation in its summer wave, it has had a much higher peak in deaths over January. Mississippi's third wave similarly was worse than its second, and Louisiana (as expected) had its worst peak in the first wave, with its summer wave not being as bad as the other two.

Maybe extreme heat is not as dangerous as extreme cold in spreading Covid because indoor spaces will be better ventilated when it is warmer, which reduces transmission.