Nevada Democrats move to end presidential caucuses

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/15/nevada-democrats-presidential-caucuses-469069

Traditional Primary now, will also try to leapfrog NH.

[beesley]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/15/nevada-democrats-presidential-caucuses-469069

Traditional Primary now, will also try to leapfrog NH.

To quote from your own signature, good riddance.

[Tender Branson]

IA's caucus needs to be killed off as well after that farce about a year ago ...

[Pollster]

A new bill would convert the state’s nominating system to a primary election that would threaten New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status.

[Pollster]

I see I missed a thread for this, mods please delete.

[Joe Republic]

Nah, let’s keep this thread.  The other one announced that the change has already happened, which is not the case.

[brucejoel99]

I wonder if that might undercut a good chunk of NH's economy these next 3 years? Imagine all of the hopeful Republicans having to eat shrimp cocktail at a casino instead of eggs & hash browns at diners.

[Joe Republic]

The bill has been introduced to the Assembly, sponsored by the Speaker, and cosponsored by both the Majority Leader and the chairwoman of the Legislative Operations & Elections committee.  Therefore it’s virtually guaranteed to pass the Assembly.

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder if that might undercut a good chunk of NH's economy these next 3 years? Imagine all of the hopeful Republicans having to eat shrimp cocktail at a casino instead of eggs & hash browns at diners.

To be clear, however early Nevada moves up, New Hampshire will presumably just move even earlier.  But aside from that, who says the Republicans are going to participate in this?  The current RNC rules would eliminate almost all of Nevada's delegates if they move into January:

https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/1361442093470785538

[Lambsbread]

Thank god. Abolish caucuses.

[Joe Republic]

Please merge with this thread, and change the title to that of the other one.  Nevada is still a caucus state until AB126 passes.  It literally just got introduced yesterday.

[Motorcity]

Any chance of Iowa changing? Excuse me, of the DNC forcing them to change?

[Joe Republic]

Some Republicans in the Senate have responded with a bill of their own that still converts the caucus to a primary, but to coincide with the regular primary election for other offices, on the second Tuesday in June.  Which is of course at the end of the presidential primary season.

I'm no fan of this arms race to be the first in the nation, but wanting to move from third or fourth position to almost last is as dumb as it gets.  The GOP is a minority in both chambers, so this bill goes nowhere anyway.  But at least they're on board with getting rid of the caucus.

[The Mikado]

I wonder if that might undercut a good chunk of NH's economy these next 3 years? Imagine all of the hopeful Republicans having to eat shrimp cocktail at a casino instead of eggs & hash browns at diners.

To be clear, however early Nevada moves up, New Hampshire will presumably just move even earlier.  But aside from that, who says the Republicans are going to participate in this?  The current RNC rules would eliminate almost all of Nevada's delegates if they move into January:

https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/1361442093470785538

So wouldn't the result be for the NV GOP to declare the new primary a beauty contest and say they're still holding a caucus as their delegate allocation contest on their side?

There's already a ton of divergences between the Dem and GOP calendars, and the Dem and GOP caucuses in NV are already not even on the same day. Why wouldn't the GOP just keep its caucuses while the Dems opt into a new state primary?

[NewYorkExpress]

Can the DNC force New Hampshire to change their law so that they aren't the first primary in the nation anymore?

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

IA's caucus needs to be killed off as well after that farce about a year ago ...

Yes, we should kill off our contest because of the federal DNC meddling with our tallies. Thank you for blaming us rural hicks and our way of counting the votes for this despite the fact that the whole debacle had nothing to do with us having a caucus and not a primary.

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder if that might undercut a good chunk of NH's economy these next 3 years? Imagine all of the hopeful Republicans having to eat shrimp cocktail at a casino instead of eggs & hash browns at diners.

To be clear, however early Nevada moves up, New Hampshire will presumably just move even earlier.  But aside from that, who says the Republicans are going to participate in this?  The current RNC rules would eliminate almost all of Nevada's delegates if they move into January:

https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/1361442093470785538

So wouldn't the result be for the NV GOP to declare the new primary a beauty contest and say they're still holding a caucus as their delegate allocation contest on their side?

Yes, that’s presumably what would happen.

There's already a ton of divergences between the Dem and GOP calendars, and the Dem and GOP caucuses in NV are already not even on the same day. Why wouldn't the GOP just keep its caucuses while the Dems opt into a new state primary?

I think maybe you’re misunderstanding me, because I don’t disagree with you.  What you’re suggesting here is exactly what I think will likely happen.  brucejoel99 said “I wonder if that might undercut a good chunk of NH's economy these next 3 years? Imagine all of the hopeful Republicans having to eat shrimp cocktail at a casino instead of eggs & hash browns at diners.”, implying that this move would result in the Republican 2024 candidates spending more time in Nevada than NH, because Nevada’s primary would now be earlier.  I responded by saying that I’m skeptical that the Republicans will actually participate in this primary, and so, as far as they’re concerned, there wouldn’t be any additional emphasis on Nevada (or deemphasis of NH) as compared to any other recent presidential primary contest.

Though, as I also alluded to, even on the Democratic side, if the Nevada Dems are holding a primary in January, then I think NH will just move to a week before them anyway.  Though it’s not clear to me how the DNC will react to that.  There may be enough pressure now for diversity early in the calendar on the Democratic side that the DNC will strip away all of NH’s delegates in that case.

[The Mikado]

Can the DNC force New Hampshire to change their law so that they aren't the first primary in the nation anymore?

They can say any contest held outside of the rules will have a 50% or 100% delegate penalty or whatever. Of course, NH was never about the delegates anyway. NH could just go ahead and hold a First in the Nation primary with zero delegates at stake and hope that media attention and fear of looking like losers will drag candidates to compete anyway.

This would especially work if the RNC accepts the NH primary as is. If the Republican candidates and the press will be going to NH anyway, and coverage of the GOP primary that night is baked in, even a nonbinding Dem primary's results will be covered that night, so you can't bank on people ignoring NH. If all the reporters are in NH for the GOP primary and candidates want to be covered, they'd need to go to NH.

TL;DR if the RNC is going along with NH, there's no reason for NH to move even under threat of losing 100% of its DNC delegates and just bet that Dem candidates will show up anyway.

[Mr. Morden]

Can the DNC force New Hampshire to change their law so that they aren't the first primary in the nation anymore?

No.  A national political party can't overrule a state law.  That's not how it works.  What the DNC *does* control though is whether a give primary contest will actually result in any delegates being awarded.  If the DNC doesn't want NH to go early, they can write their rules such that an early NH primary will not result in the awarding of any delegates to the DNC.

For most states, that's enough to get them to back down.  However, NH is particularly attached to its early primary state status, and I don't see Bill Gardner backing down.  If Nevada moves into January, then Gardner will schedule the NH primary for a week earlier, regardless of whether the DNC threatens to remove the delegates.  If Biden is running for re-nomination in 2024 and has no opposition to speak of, then it doesn't matter anyway.  No one will care about the Democratic contest, and all eyes will be on the GOP contest, where they're unlikely to take away NH's delegates.

If it's an open contest on the Dem. side as well though, then it becomes an issue.  Will any Dem. candidates do any campaigning in NH anyway, despite there being no delegates at stake, just because a win there, even in a contest that awards no delegates, could give them momentum?  I don't know.  In previous years, I would have guessed that the candidates would campaign there anyway, but I'm not sure how it'll play now that there's been focus on the racial aspect, and the fact that IA and NH are so white, yet always go first.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

IA's caucus needs to be killed off as well after that farce about a year ago ...

Yes, we should kill off our contest because of the federal DNC meddling with our tallies. Thank you for blaming us rural hicks and our way of counting the votes for this despite the fact that the whole debacle had nothing to do with us having a caucus and not a primary.

The problems with caucuses go well beyond the issues that were specific to 2020. I don't care if it's the rural hicks running the show or if it's someone else; caucuses need to go.

[Hope For A New Era]

I wonder if that might undercut a good chunk of NH's economy these next 3 years? Imagine all of the hopeful Republicans having to eat shrimp cocktail at a casino instead of eggs & hash browns at diners.

Worrisome. Nevada being one of the first will "filter" the Republican field, giving an advantage to the more Latino-friendly candidates. As we saw in Florida and south Texas...that could be a future problem for the Democratic Party. Better to keep the Republicans as white as possible.

[The Mikado]

I wonder if that might undercut a good chunk of NH's economy these next 3 years? Imagine all of the hopeful Republicans having to eat shrimp cocktail at a casino instead of eggs & hash browns at diners.

Worrisome. Nevada being one of the first will "filter" the Republican field, giving an advantage to the more Latino-friendly candidates. As we saw in Florida and south Texas...that could be a future problem for the Democratic Party. Better to keep the Republicans as white as possible.

The exitpoll of the 2016 GOP NV caucus said it was 85% white, fwiw.

[Bootes Void]

Can the DNC force New Hampshire to change their law so that they aren't the first primary in the nation anymore?

A private organization cannot force a state to change a law

[brucejoel99]

Can the DNC force New Hampshire to change their law so that they aren't the first primary in the nation anymore?

A private organization cannot force a state to change a law

Well, a statement that broad isn't exactly true because it can very much depend on the context (i.e., a private organization can take an unconstitutional state law to court, for instance), but in this instance, the DNC obviously has no recourse beyond mere informal political pressure to force NH to change its state law, no.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

IA's caucus needs to be killed off as well after that farce about a year ago ...

Yes, we should kill off our contest because of the federal DNC meddling with our tallies. Thank you for blaming us rural hicks and our way of counting the votes for this despite the fact that the whole debacle had nothing to do with us having a caucus and not a primary.

It needs to be killed because caucuses are disporpiantly prevent low-income and disabled voters from particpating.