GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1599158051855953921

[emailking]

I'd rather be vampire because at least you can control it and get donated blood or animal blood or something. Also when Buffy was on I fantasized about being one all the time.

[Adam Griffin]

I just received runoff polling toplines from the same individual (someone I've known for like a decade) affiliated with a Georgia-based GOP group that - for reference - gave me their early October 2020 poll that showed Biden +1 statewide, as well as their October 2022 Senate poll that showed Warnock +1 (both rounded to the nearest point).

Their Senate runoff poll - rounded - shows Warnock +5.

I said a few days ago that I found it difficult to see Warnock clearing 52% under the best-case scenario, but the EV data has improved for Democrats since then - and a 5-point win means 52.5% Warnock - so perhaps it is in fact feasible. Given their track record in 2020 and 2022, I want to believe!

[Tekken_Guy]

I just received runoff polling toplines from the same individual (someone I've known for like a decade) affiliated with a Georgia-based GOP group that - for reference - gave me their early October 2020 poll that showed Biden +1 statewide, as well as their October 2022 Senate poll that showed Warnock +1 (both rounded to the nearest point).

Their Senate runoff poll - rounded - shows Warnock +5.

I said a few days ago that I found it difficult to see Warnock clearing 52% under the best-case scenario, but the EV data has improved for Democrats since then - and a 5-point win means 52.5% Warnock - so perhaps it is in fact feasible. Given their track record in 2020 and 2022, I want to believe!

The three worst Senate GOP candidates of the cycle all losing by 5. Poetic.

[Adam Griffin]

At any rate...I'm obviously going to be watching this on Tuesday at a granular level, but for those who are more casual browsers regarding this election and can't be bothered to follow intently: this race is over. I may not be Dave Wasserman, but I have in fact seen enough:



Unless ED turnout is close to the size of EV turnout (or greater), Walker is cooked.

[Spectator]

At any rate...I'm obviously going to be watching this on Tuesday at a granular level, but for those who are more casual browsers regarding this election and can't be bothered to follow intently: this race is over. I may not be Dave Wasserman, but I have in fact seen enough:



Unless ED turnout is close to the size of EV turnout (or greater), Walker is cooked.

Was waiting on you to say it, but that’s my hunch too. I don’t think it will be very close either. Warnock wins by more than he did in January 2021.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Unless ED turnout is close to the size of EV turnout (or greater), Walker is cooked.

Do you think it is not actually a real possibility that election day turnout may be higher than expected? I would think that with the shortened early vote period there are probably some people who may have voted early in the past during the longer periods in previous elections might end up not voting on election day because they are busy, because they forget, or even because of some freak weather or something.

And it is plausible those sorts of people could be disproportionately D voters. That is the one thing giving me pause, the possibility that Rs could win by being successful enough at suppressing the D early vote that they could end up winning on election day.

The early vote data on its face certainly does look very good, but with that major caveat regarding the shortened period.

[Tekken_Guy]

Unless ED turnout is close to the size of EV turnout (or greater), Walker is cooked.

Do you think it is not actually a real possibility that election day turnout may be higher than expected? I would think that with the shortened early vote period there are probably some people who may have voted early in the past during the longer periods in previous elections might end up not voting on election day because they are busy, because they forget, or even because of some freak weather or something.

And it is plausible those sorts of people could be disproportionately D voters. That is the one thing giving me pause, the possibility that Rs could win by being successful enough at suppressing the D early vote that they could end up winning on election day.

The early vote data on its face certainly does look very good, but with that major caveat regarding the shortened period.

Wait if people who intended to vote early stay home on Election Day, wouldn’t that mean Election Day turnout is lower?

I’m not sure if you mean that high or low turnout is good for Walker?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Will Walker's belief that Werewolves are better win him the crucial furry vote?

[Ferguson97]

At this point I think that Warnock+5 is more likely than a Walker squeaker.

[Adam Griffin]

Unless ED turnout is close to the size of EV turnout (or greater), Walker is cooked.

Do you think it is not actually a real possibility that election day turnout may be higher than expected? I would think that with the shortened early vote period there are probably some people who may have voted early in the past during the longer periods in previous elections might end up not voting on election day because they are busy, because they forget, or even because of some freak weather or something.

And it is plausible those sorts of people could be disproportionately D voters. That is the one thing giving me pause, the possibility that Rs could win by being successful enough at suppressing the D early vote that they could end up winning on election day.

The early vote data on its face certainly does look very good, but with that major caveat regarding the shortened period.

Depends on what "higher than expected" entails. My only true expectation personally is that runoff turnout will not exceed general election turnout. We're on track for 1.92m EVs when all is said and done, so 2.02m is the absolute ceiling in any somewhat plausible scenario. However, is it that realistic to expect even a number close to that?

Maybe I'm touching on part of what you mean here (along with TG, I'm a bit confused), but if anything, a greater share than usual of those who are waiting to vote on Election Day may be metro voters who were turned off by huge wait times during the EV period that we haven't seen since the early Obama years.

I fully expect the EV/ED gap to be larger than in recent general elections (in 2020 & 2022, it was 26-28 points; in the 2021 runoff, it was 40 points). The problem for Walker is voter file analysis suggests that Warnock is leading among EVs by 15-20 points right now (in contrast, he won EV in the 2021 runoff by 14 points).

I checked with the individual I referenced prior: reverse-engineering their breakdowns, their poll is projecting 3.3m voters (which points toward an ED total of 1.4m voters). The EV/ED candidate support gap in that scenario would need to be close to 50 points for Walker to have a shot.

Loeffler got 63% in the 2021 runoff among an ED electorate of 1.3m voters (with the total electorate being 4.5m voters!). Walker not only needs Election Day to have more raw voters than we saw in an almost certainly higher turnout contest (2021 runoff), but he needs to win them by more than Loeffler did in order to win.

Just in case anybody is wondering, here are the EV shares of the electorate for all major elections over the past 4 years in GA:

EV % of Electorate
2020-GE   80.3%
2021-RO   70.4%
2022-GE   64.1%
2018-GE   53.7%
2018-RO   31.1%

Some might look at the 2018 runoff without realizing it was just two downballot contests (SoS & PSC) with a grand total of 1.5m voters and say "hey, that's a midterm runoff" - or look at 2020 general/2021 runoff and assume relatively nobody shows up on Tuesday - but all 3 are obviously unrealistic as comparisons here for reasons I don't think I have to explain.

At any rate, I'm expecting somewhere between 1.2m and 1.4m ED votes, as this has been the case in the past 2 major high-turnout contests. That ED share will work out to somewhere between 36-42% of all votes cast.

Raw ED Turnout
2021-RO 1316760
2022-GE 1410749

[Blair]

Still baffles me how the Georgia GOP and national GOP groups let such an awful candidate like Walker run- especially after Loefller.

Its not as if they’re short of a bench statewide; I’m tempted to say even some random state office holder, judge or random GOP aide (see Alabama senate) would have been miles better.

[Person Man]

I just received runoff polling toplines from the same individual (someone I've known for like a decade) affiliated with a Georgia-based GOP group that - for reference - gave me their early October 2020 poll that showed Biden +1 statewide, as well as their October 2022 Senate poll that showed Warnock +1 (both rounded to the nearest point).

Their Senate runoff poll - rounded - shows Warnock +5.

I said a few days ago that I found it difficult to see Warnock clearing 52% under the best-case scenario, but the EV data has improved for Democrats since then - and a 5-point win means 52.5% Warnock - so perhaps it is in fact feasible. Given their track record in 2020 and 2022, I want to believe!

The three worst Senate GOP candidates of the cycle all losing by 5. Poetic.

Which makes sense. In a year where Republicans won by 3% means that they lost the tipping point senate race because it was 8% more Democratic than the top line. I think that is the Republican Party’s floor. That is, to lose the tipping point by 8%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Georgia Republican lieutenant governor deems Herschel Walker 'one of the worst' candidates in GOP history

(Intentionally linking to Fox News to note even they're admitting this.)

[randomusername]

Still baffles me how the Georgia GOP and national GOP groups let such an awful candidate like Walker run- especially after Loefller.

Its not as if they’re short of a bench statewide; I’m tempted to say even some random state office holder, judge or random GOP aide (see Alabama senate) would have been miles better.

Wonder if Kemp tries to run against Ossoff in 2026

[Inmate Trump]

Still baffles me how the Georgia GOP and national GOP groups let such an awful candidate like Walker run- especially after Loefller.

Its not as if they’re short of a bench statewide; I’m tempted to say even some random state office holder, judge or random GOP aide (see Alabama senate) would have been miles better.

Wonder if Kemp tries to run against Ossoff in 2026

I really think he will. 2026 will, presumably, see an even bluer Georgia...but they would both be seen as incumbents. I think Ossoff may have a slight edge, but who knows right now.

[Ferguson97]

Still baffles me how the Georgia GOP and national GOP groups let such an awful candidate like Walker run- especially after Loefller.

Its not as if they’re short of a bench statewide; I’m tempted to say even some random state office holder, judge or random GOP aide (see Alabama senate) would have been miles better.

There's only so much they can do when their base is completely insane.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1599428404532891649

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1599428404532891649

Politico: "Reverend Warnock possibly endorses opponent in pre-election sermon. Democrats in disarray?"

[Antonio the Sixth]

We Catholics (well, "we") love to give Anglo Protestants sh*t for their bland aesthetics, but that cassock (if that's what you call it?) is gorgeous. Is that common in Black churches?

[Horus]

We Catholics (well, "we") love to give Anglo Protestants sh*t for their bland aesthetics, but that cassock (if that's what you call it?) is gorgeous. Is that common in Black churches?

I've seen them pretty often. I feel like they're more of an AME thing than a Baptist thing though maybe I'm wrong. A variant of that pattern is also common at graduations, especially at HBCUs.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Wait if people who intended to vote early stay home on Election Day, wouldn’t that mean Election Day turnout is lower?

I’m not sure if you mean that high or low turnout is good for Walker?

Depends on what "higher than expected" entails. My only true expectation personally is that runoff turnout will not exceed general election turnout. We're on track for 1.92m EVs when all is said and done, so 2.02m is the absolute ceiling in any somewhat plausible scenario. However, is it that realistic to expect even a number close to that?

Maybe I'm touching on part of what you mean here (along with TG, I'm a bit confused), but if anything, a greater share than usual of those who are waiting to vote on Election Day may be metro voters who were turned off by huge wait times during the EV period that we haven't seen since the early Obama years.

Sorry for the lack of clarity. I'll try to make it clearer.

What I was worried about is the possibility that the shorter EV period has the effect of selectively reducing turnout among "the sort of people who typically in the past have voted early" because their normal method of voting has been limited but not among "the sort of people who typically in the past have voted on election day," because their normal method of voting has not been limited. And since past early voters have tended D and election day voters have tended R, that could have the effect of helping Walker if that turns out to occur.

I will make up an example scenario below using some numbers to make that more concrete (looking up numbers from Georgia SOS which I did not bother to do before).

I fully expect the EV/ED gap to be larger than in recent general elections (in 2020 & 2022, it was 26-28 points; in the 2021 runoff, it was 40 points). The problem for Walker is voter file analysis suggests that Warnock is leading among EVs by 15-20 points right now (in contrast, he won EV in the 2021 runoff by 14 points).

I checked with the individual I referenced prior: reverse-engineering their breakdowns, their poll is projecting 3.3m voters (which points toward an ED total of 1.4m voters). The EV/ED candidate support gap in that scenario would need to be close to 50 points for Walker to have a shot.

Loeffler got 63% in the 2021 runoff among an ED electorate of 1.3m voters (with the total electorate being 4.5m voters!). Walker not only needs Election Day to have more raw voters than we saw in an almost certainly higher turnout contest (2021 runoff), but he needs to win them by more than Loeffler did in order to win.[/quote]



What I am seeing from the detail file here https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/115465/web.307039/#/detail/10100

is that in the 2022 general, results were:

EDay - Walker 794384 (56.3%), Warnock 575873 (40.8%)............ Walker + 15.5% margin
Absentee - Walker 74845 (30.4%), Warnock 166257 (67.6%)............ Warnock + 37.2% margin
Advance - Walker 1038220 (45.6%), Warnock 1202113 (52.8%)............ Warnock + 7.2% margin
Provisional - (won't bother since the numbers are small)

If you combine Eday + provisional into one election day category and Absentee and Advance into one early category, then you have:

EDay (incl prov) - Walker 795377 (56.3%), Warnock 577747 (40.9%)............ Walker + 15.4% margin
Early - Walker 1113065 (44.1%), Warnock 1368370 (54.3%)............ Warnock + 10.1% margin


According to he numbers you posted earlier, 1,852,576 people have voted already in the 2022 runoff (Absentee + Advance).

And let's assume, based on the estimate you posted which sounds like it is probably based on voter file support scores, that Warnock will win the early (Absentee + Advance) vote by 17.5%. If those voter file support scores, when applied to the list of people who voted early (absentee + advance) in the 2022 general matches the actual results of the 2022 early vote and gives Warnock around a ~10.1% margin (do you know if it in fact does?), then those support scores are probably pretty accurate now for the runoff early voters as well. If that does not match, I would be more wary.

But anyway, if we assume 17.5% margin from the early votes, that would put the 2022 runoff early vote at an estimated 1,088,388 Warnock to 764,188 Walker, or a 324,200 vote margin for Warnock.


And from here - https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.274956/#/detail/10100

In the Warnock-Loeffler 2020 runoff, 1,316,760 votes were cast on election day, and Loeffler won them 830,949 to 485,811, or a 345,138 vote margin.


So now let's suppose for my example that basically everyone who voted on election day for the 2020 runoff now shows up for the 2022 runoff as well, and if they voted for Warnock then, they vote for him again, and if they voted for Loeffler then, now they vote Walker. So that gives us 485,811 for Warnock and 830,949 for Walker, same exact thing as the Warnock-Loeffler runoff election day.

And in addition to that, let's suppose that there are also 100,000 other people that vote on election day, which are people who normally would have voted early in previous years, but did not do so this year because of the shortened early vote period. Since these are "the sorts of people who normally vote early" they are a good group for Warnock, and let's say they also vote for him by 17.5%, just like the early voters, so that would mean they break down 58750 for Warnock and 41250 for Walker.

In total, these assumptions give us:

Warnock: 1088388 + 58750 + 485811 (Early + People_who_usually_vote_early_but_voting_election_day_this_time + Election Day)

Walker: 764,188 + 41250 + 830949 (Early + People_who_usually_vote_early_but_voting_election_day_this_time + Election Day)

Or...
Warnock: 1088388 + 58750 + 485811 = 1,632,949
Walker: 764,188 + 41250 + 830949 = 1,636,387


So despite the early vote looking seemingly good for the Dems, those (entirely hypothetical) numbers actually end up adding up to a narrow Walker win.

This is the sort of scenario I am worried could still be possible, and I don't think the particular assumptions we are making here are really unreasonable (and also are not particularly favorable for Rs in a lot of respects, since we are assuming Warnock wins the early vote by a larger percentage than he did in the 2020 runoff etc).

At any rate, I'm expecting somewhere between 1.2m and 1.4m ED votes, as this has been the case in the past 2 major high-turnout contests. That ED share will work out to somewhere between 36-42% of all votes cast.

I would also note that this scenario above has 1,416,760 election day votes, which is the same as the Loeffler-Warnock runoff election day turnout plus an extra 100,000, and which ALSO is basically within your own 1.2m to 1.4m expected election day vote range.

So I could still see a path to victory for Walker along these sorts of lines, and hypothetically he could do better also if e.g. Warnock "only" wins the early vote by 16% or 15% or something rather than by 17.5%.

[Florida Man for Crime]

And the reason for the numbers in my hypothetical scenario adding up to a narrow Walker win is really just that early vote turnout was suppressed by the shorter early vote period, and although we are assuming that 100k people who normally would have voted early do end up voting on election day instead, there are also a lot of people who normally would have voted early (and lean Dem) who end up not voting on election day, because they are not used to voting on election day. If there were a longer early vote period, a lot of them would have probably voted early, but this is a hypothetical example where voter suppression works to create an R victory.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Walker not only needs Election Day to have more raw voters than we saw in an almost certainly higher turnout contest (2021 runoff), but he needs to win them by more than Loeffler did in order to win.

And finally, in my hypothetical scenario, Walker does get higher raw election day turnout than in the 2020-21 runoff, but there is a logical explanation for why that could plausibly be the case, namely the shortened early vote period this time.

And in contrast to your statement that Walker would need to win them by more than Loeffler did to win, he wins them by a LOWER margin than Loeffler, but nevertheless that is enough for a narrow Walker victory.


So while I would rather be Warnock than Walker at this point, I don't think we are necessarily quite out of the woods yet.

[Adam Griffin]

An additional 10,229 ABMs were received on Saturday & another 407 were received on Sunday, bringing the grand EV total to 1,863,212.