GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Independents for Nihilism]

I was hoping GA secretary of state Raffensperger would run but I guess this guy is probably Trumpy enough that it would stop MTG from running on the Patriot party or whatever, so he's probably a good choice for the GOP.

[Devils30]

Time is Perdue's biggest enemy, the new voters in 2021-22 will not be pretty for the GOP. Not hard to see Warnock at 62% in Gwinnett and 58% in Cobb.

[DC Al Fine]

The thing I fear is that as Perdue is a relatively strong candidate, or at least a credible one, the GOP will be tempted to throw a lot of money in this race, only to lose it by a small margin in the end.

I made a post a while back talking about the NRCC in the 1980s challenging seats in San Francisco and NYC with millions of dollars while ignoring rural seats that could be won with $15,000. I said that they were fighting the last war, with yesterday's map. It still holds true today, people cannot fathom states shifting the way we can and thus cannot fathom that a state that was solidly Republican now is not a good path to victory anymore, so this quixotic spending results.

*Sigh*

We're going to ignore Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in favour of overspending in Georgia and Arizona aren't we?

Are there any good examples of the Dems doing what the GOP did in the 80's?

[windjammer]

Given many of the other GA GOP options he might be one of the stronger candidates

[wbrocks67]

LMAO you've gotta be kidding me with him saying that the November results were the only ones that mattered and the 4.5 million that voted in January don't matter at all. The GOP LOVES telling voters their votes don't matter.

[SnowLabrador]

I was hoping GA secretary of state Raffensperger would run but I guess this guy is probably Trumpy enough that it would stop MTG from running on the Patriot party or whatever, so he's probably a good choice for the GOP.

There's no chance in hell he'd win the primary.

[Tiger08]

The GA runoffs proved that he has little suburban crossover

That is actually not true. Perdue outran Trump by 6-10 points (maybe even more in some precincts) in much of East Cobb, North Fulton, and Buckhead. Some parts of Fayette, DeKalb, Oconee, and Chatham did too. In other words, there's some crossover among white suburban voters. The problems were that rural Trumpy/Stop the Steal turnout (especially in MTG's district) just tanked and that Perdue did not have much crossover in diverse suburbs like Gwinnett (which got bluer)

[Sir Mohamed]

Perdue is the king of suburbs and will absolutely go back to pre-Trump levels. Warnock is toast. /s

[kwabbit]

The GA runoffs proved that he has little suburban crossover

That is actually not true. Perdue outran Trump by 6-10 points (maybe even more in some precincts) in much of East Cobb, North Fulton, and Buckhead. Some parts of Fayette, DeKalb, Oconee, and Chatham did too. In other words, there's some crossover among white suburban voters. The problems were that rural Trumpy/Stop the Steal turnout (especially in MTG's district) just tanked and that Perdue did not have much crossover in diverse suburbs like Gwinnett (which got bluer)

Perdue probably did some crossover appeal in the diverse suburbs as well, it's just that the turnout pattern in the runoffs caused a Dem swing that outweighed his crossover appeal. If Black voters increase their turnout by 10% relative to White voters, then it's hard to counter that through persuasion.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Perdue is the king of suburbs and will absolutely go back to pre-Trump levels. Warnock is toast. /s

Perdue can ignore Cobb and Gwinnett, as they are Safe R and go for Fulton and Dekalb.

[VBM]

Unpopular? opinion: Perdue is probably one of the stronger GOP candidates out there and his entrance probably precludes a total crazy like Jody Hice or Marjorie Taylor-Greene winning the nomination. On the other hand, as we saw in 2021, crazy turnout in Georgia might fall if the candidate isn't sufficiently crazy, and Democratic favored trends, as well as the inelastic nature of the state, should make a Warnock a favorite. However, while Perdue may get lower rural turnout, he will not be utterly annihilated in the suburbs (I could see Democrats breaking 61% in Cobb and like 66% in Gwinnett if MTG was the nominee ). TL;DR, Lean D is fair for this, and the GOP won't be throwing it away immediately.

Well, when the most prominent Georgia Republicans happen to be people like MTG, Vernon Jones, Doug Collins, and Herschel Walker, it’s not hard to look like one of the better options

[VBM]

https://twitter.com/Perduesenate/status/1361756645685141508?s=20

Radical Liberal 2: Electric Boogaloo

I don’t think Perdue is handling his defeat very well

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Perdue is the king of suburbs and will absolutely go back to pre-Trump levels. Warnock is toast. /s

Nah, Rafael will win, but Kemp will win, there is gonna be split voting, FL Crist, OH Ryan, PA Fetterman

Upsets in NH with Sununu and Ron Johnson

[S019]

Perdue is the king of suburbs and will absolutely go back to pre-Trump levels. Warnock is toast. /s

Nah, Rafael will win, but Kemp will win, there is gonna be split voting, FL Crist, OH Ryan, PA Fetterman

Upsets in NH with Sununu and Ron Johnson

Lololololololololololololololololololololol, Democrats aren’t winning Ohio

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Perdue is the king of suburbs and will absolutely go back to pre-Trump levels. Warnock is toast. /s

Nah, Rafael will win, but Kemp will win, there is gonna be split voting, FL Crist, OH Ryan, PA Fetterman

Upsets in NH with Sununu and Ron Johnson

Lololololololololololololololololololololol, Democrats aren’t winning Ohio

Yes we are

[Хahar 🤔]

Unpopular? opinion: Perdue is probably one of the stronger GOP candidates out there and his entrance probably precludes a total crazy like Jody Hice or Marjorie Taylor-Greene winning the nomination. On the other hand, as we saw in 2021, crazy turnout in Georgia might fall if the candidate isn't sufficiently crazy, and Democratic favored trends, as well as the inelastic nature of the state, should make a Warnock a favorite. However, while Perdue may get lower rural turnout, he will not be utterly annihilated in the suburbs (I could see Democrats breaking 61% in Cobb and like 66% in Gwinnett if MTG was the nominee ). TL;DR, Lean D is fair for this, and the GOP won't be throwing it away immediately.

I mean, Perdue was the worst-performing statewide Republican in 2014 and barely did any better than Loeffler despite being an elected incumbent. Literally, the only context I could see him as a 'stronger candidate' is relative to MTG.

Yeah. I'm not sure how we emerged from the senate election with this narrative that Loeffler was a terrible candidate and Perdue a strong one. Maybe it was because Loeffler's campaign seemed grotesque and Perdue's a standard Republican campaign and maybe it was because of the obsession here with Perdue/Warnock ticket-splitters and maybe it was just because of Perdue's last name, but in fact Loeffler and Perdue were basically identical in their performance.

It's not likely to matter too much who gets the Republican nomination (unless it's a truly non-viable candidate like Marjorie Taylor Greene), because Georgia elections are functionally Generic D vs. Generic R. That said, as said here, there's absolutely no evidence that David Perdue is a good candidate and clear evidence to the contrary.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

The GA runoffs proved that he has little suburban crossover

That is actually not true. Perdue outran Trump by 6-10 points (maybe even more in some precincts) in much of East Cobb, North Fulton, and Buckhead. Some parts of Fayette, DeKalb, Oconee, and Chatham did too. In other words, there's some crossover among white suburban voters. The problems were that rural Trumpy/Stop the Steal turnout (especially in MTG's district) just tanked and that Perdue did not have much crossover in diverse suburbs like Gwinnett (which got bluer)

Apart from Cobb and Fulton and a few other counties in North Atlanta, Ossoff outperformed Biden in North Atlanta. South and East Atlanta swung D.

[South Dakota Democrat]

(I realize no one is listening)

But in a strong R year, this race is Lean R right now depending upon how fast Georgia is trending blue

Perdue was the only one that would make this Lean R

How is Georgia looking?

Perdue has easily won.

Trump won narrowly which is miraculous for Dems. The state has been a lost cause for years and especially this cycle. No matter how much of a hard on they get for it - it’s not happening and the fact people still at this hour believe it to have a chance of going Dem just shows the bankruptcy of their political analysis

[MT Treasurer]

I think Perdue is a decent choice for the Rs. I'm open to voting for Perdue in 2022 depending on how the Ds do with their trifecta, and frankly, of all the R contenders for the seat (MTG, Collins, Perdue, Loeffler), I really am not open to voting for the other three for varying reasons.  However, Perdue will need to run a far better campaign than he did this cycle. If we are still hearing in 2022 about how Trump wasn't responsible for the riots, we shouldn't be shocked if the ATL suburbs trend even further D.

I think we know this story ends, don’t we? Between this and Del Tachi's comment about Perdue not being anathema to Buckhead whites/being formidable in those areas because it’s a Biden midterm, this thread honestly couldn’t have been off to a better (or, well, more ominous) start.

[prag_prog]

If I am 70+ and extremely rich af, I would be chilling and enjoying life lol instead of running for a gruelling senate campaign

[SnowLabrador]

If I am 70+ and extremely rich af, I would be chilling and enjoying life lol instead of running for a gruelling senate campaign

Me too. Perdue must not be satisfied with how much he's already profited off COVID.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1363835943816491010?s=20

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1363835943816491010?s=20

Lol I feel like the GA GOP are going to put forward as their worst and dullest for this race. She was already defeated by radical liberal Raphael Warnock once. This is going to be a fun race to watch. Still tossup, but if the GA GOP continues to implode Warnock could hold on by a respectful margin

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1363835943816491010?s=20

David and Kelly are REALLY not taking their loss well

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Loeffler will lose again, Brian Kemp may win if he doesn't face Stacy Abrams, but Warnock will win and may avoid a Runoff, if Stacy Abrams runs