Al Smith victory in 1928

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

What would the electoral map of an Al Smith victory in 28 look like and what circumstances would be required for him to win? My thought is that it would require an earlier stock market crash (Say in August or September of 28) because it has to be after the convention since if it looked like Democrats had a real chance to win beforehand other candidates would likely jump in and probably someone else would get the nomination. Here's my hypothetical results:

Smith-Robinson 284
Hoover-Curtis 247

I didn't really do too deep a dive into the results or change the margin but my thought was that it would still be a narrow victory since the economy wouldn't have hit rock bottom yet and the Catholic issue was still there but things would be just bad enough to keep the solid south narrowly in Smith's column and allow him to pick off a handful of other states with a 5-10 point swing. Weird map as I imagine any hypothetical Democratic victory map in that era would be.

[Agonized-Statism]

Yeah, you would need the stock market to crash after Smith's nomination in 1928. He was a sacrificial lamb. He wouldn't have the time or political capital to put together a proto-New Deal Coalition, but boosted turnout from 1920s Democrats and maybe Progressives would be enough for a win.


Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover (R-CA) / Senator Charles Curtis (R-KS)
Governor Al Smith (D-NY) / Senator Joseph Robinson (D-AR) ✓