An opinion piece, but some interesting factoids nonetheless.
LA Times: Orange County a problem for Newsom recall effort
If a Republican cause can’t win big in Orange County, it’s probably doomed statewide in Democrat-dominated California.
It’s just a matter of math: Democrats hold a nearly 2-to-1 advantage over Republicans in voter registration statewide. And independent voters — registered as “no party preference” — lean toward Democrats.
The apparent lack of heavy support in the former Republican stronghold of Orange County is one reason why the GOP-backed effort to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom seems headed for failure if it qualifies for a statewide ballot, as now seems likely.
A poll of 703 Orange County adults sponsored by Chapman University shows that they’re basically split over whether Newsom should be ousted before his term expires at the end of 2022 — a bad sign for recall pushers. In fact, Orange County residents lean slightly against the proposed recall, according to the survey.
Asked whether Newsom should be recalled, 48% of those interviewed answered yes and 52% said no.
Their views were largely shaped by political partisanship, of course. Among Republicans, 80% favored recalling the governor while 84% of Democrats opposed it. A slim majority of independents, 53%, supported the recall.
The last major independent statewide poll on the recall was conducted in late January by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.
Among registered voters, 36% favored the recall and 45% opposed it, with 19% undecided.
In Orange County alone, the IGS survey found 45% supporting the recall — similar to the Chapman survey — but only 39% opposed, with 16% undecided.
“The recall would have to be doing much better in Orange County if it were to be successful,” says Chapman political science professor Fred Smoller, who oversaw the poll.
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https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-04/skelton-orange-county-republicans-democrats-california-governor-newsom-recall-chances 
