Would Orange county vote for newsome or faulconer in a recall election?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 08:11:18 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Would Orange county vote for newsome or faulconer in a recall election?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Would Orange county vote for newsome or faulconer in a recall election?  (Read 1642 times)
Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,905


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 12, 2021, 10:36:46 PM »

faulconer seems like a perfect fit for OC, but frankly, so does newsome.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,878
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2021, 11:55:53 PM »

faulconer seems like a perfect fit for OC, but frankly, so does newsome.

Newsome, it's a fairly safe-D county. Didn't vote for any republican in 2018
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2021, 12:01:09 AM »

Unless things have changed since 2003, recall elections don't work like that in California. There's a yes or no question to recall, along with a vote for a replacement (Newsom will not be on this ballot).
Logged
Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2021, 12:28:34 AM »

Unless things have changed since 2003, recall elections don't work like that in California. There's a yes or no question to recall, along with a vote for a replacement (Newsom will not be on this ballot).

Things are exactly the same as 2003. Down to the weird jungle-primary-but-also-it's-just-FPTP system and no limits on campaign contributions.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,725


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2021, 12:21:42 PM »

Unless things have changed since 2003, recall elections don't work like that in California. There's a yes or no question to recall, along with a vote for a replacement (Newsom will not be on this ballot).

Things are exactly the same as 2003. Down to the weird jungle-primary-but-also-it's-just-FPTP system and no limits on campaign contributions.

And right now there appear to be three Republicans in the ring. These are the Reaganlandian Cox, the insider administrator Faulconer, and the Trump die-hard Grenell. Since the D campaign appears to be focusing on voting No rather than ensuring a D replaces Newsom, which is right since this is a blue state and a GOP petition, its unlikely any serious D challengers throw in their hat against the lt. Gov or whomever Newsom has running on the replacement side of the ballot. Such a vote split ensures most counties will be Blue on the second question, even though it won't matter.
Logged
kwabbit
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2021, 03:00:22 PM »

faulconer seems like a perfect fit for OC, but frankly, so does newsome.

Newsome, it's a fairly safe-D county. Didn't vote for any republican in 2018
In a hypothetical 1 v 1 newsom vs faulconer recall election. I’m not entirely sure the rules of the recall, but if newsom is allowed to be on the ballot if the yes wins, and faulconer is the only  GOP candidate, he would definitely win OC. Newsom won OC by .2% against Cox in a 24 point statewide victory. I don’t think anyone thinks that Newsom is in a stronger position electorally than he was in 2018. If there’s enough anti-Newsom sentiment for him to be removed in the first question, he would likely lose OC by 10+ points in a 1 v 1 against a Republican.
Logged
💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,416
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2021, 08:42:34 PM »

If the recall happened before, say, August 2021 then I actually think Faulconer would be favored. But beyond that point I think the absolutely bungled COVID response will be washed out enough by cultural topic du jour, especially if the vote didn't happen until 2022.

faulconer seems like a perfect fit for OC, but frankly, so does newsome.

This some hilarious and sophisticated shade. Well done.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,806
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2021, 02:00:29 PM »

Newsom, the only one who won a Recall is Arnie 20 yrs ago, due to Latino vote, OC hasn't turned on Newsom yet
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 17, 2021, 01:00:51 PM »

faulconer seems like a perfect fit for OC, but frankly, so does newsome.

Newsome, it's a fairly safe-D county. Didn't vote for any republican in 2018
It voted for Steve Poizner and Joel Anderson.
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,796


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 23, 2021, 03:34:30 PM »

i can see a dead cat bounce.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2021, 05:22:31 AM »

Newsom has lost a significant amount of support since his election in '18. The recall will be a yes/no with a 2nd question of which candidate will replace Newsom (only goes into effect if yes wins). I suspect if the recall looks like 56/44 (which is what it looks around right now) Orange County would vote pretty solidly yes. They also have a large disproportionate share of signatures for it. He barely won in it 2018 so I don't see how they don't vote to recall him.
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,142
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2021, 05:25:15 AM »

Newsom has lost a significant amount of support since his election in '18. The recall will be a yes/no with a 2nd question of which candidate will replace Newsom (only goes into effect if yes wins). I suspect if the recall looks like 56/44 (which is what it looks around right now) Orange County would vote pretty solidly yes. They also have a large disproportionate share of signatures for it. He barely won in it 2018 so I don't see how they don't vote to recall him.
Yeah, OC is blue, but not nearly Dem enough to be able to vote against recalling Newsom.
Logged
AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,267
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -5.39

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2021, 07:50:42 PM »

It will probably vote to recall Newsom; this isn't a federal election.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,577
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2021, 04:30:20 PM »

It will probably vote to recall Newsom; this isn't a federal election.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2021, 05:20:59 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2021, 03:42:56 PM by Monstro Believed in a Blue Georgia (and a Blue Texas) »

I'd lean yes, but I'm damn-near expecting a smaller margin than most folks seem to be thinking. Maybe something like 53-47?

I can perhaps see a 10% margin in OC, but we're viewing the recall through today's eyes and not months from now when (Likely & hopefully) California is 100% in recovery mode.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2021, 02:49:35 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2021, 03:33:00 PM by Monstro Believed in a Blue Georgia (and a Blue Texas) »

An opinion piece, but some interesting factoids nonetheless.

Quote
LA Times: Orange County a problem for Newsom recall effort

If a Republican cause can’t win big in Orange County, it’s probably doomed statewide in Democrat-dominated California.

It’s just a matter of math: Democrats hold a nearly 2-to-1 advantage over Republicans in voter registration statewide. And independent voters — registered as “no party preference” — lean toward Democrats.

The apparent lack of heavy support in the former Republican stronghold of Orange County is one reason why the GOP-backed effort to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom seems headed for failure if it qualifies for a statewide ballot, as now seems likely.

A poll of 703 Orange County adults sponsored by Chapman University shows that they’re basically split over whether Newsom should be ousted before his term expires at the end of 2022 — a bad sign for recall pushers. In fact, Orange County residents lean slightly against the proposed recall, according to the survey.

Asked whether Newsom should be recalled, 48% of those interviewed answered yes and 52% said no.

Their views were largely shaped by political partisanship, of course. Among Republicans, 80% favored recalling the governor while 84% of Democrats opposed it. A slim majority of independents, 53%, supported the recall.

The last major independent statewide poll on the recall was conducted in late January by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.

Among registered voters, 36% favored the recall and 45% opposed it, with 19% undecided.

In Orange County alone, the IGS survey found 45% supporting the recall — similar to the Chapman survey — but only 39% opposed, with 16% undecided.

“The recall would have to be doing much better in Orange County if it were to be successful,” says Chapman political science professor Fred Smoller, who oversaw the poll.
[...]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-04/skelton-orange-county-republicans-democrats-california-governor-newsom-recall-chances
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,142
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2021, 03:00:56 PM »

More of an opinion piece, but some interesting factoids nonetheless.

Quote
LA Times: Orange County a problem for Newsom recall effort

If a Republican cause can’t win big in Orange County, it’s probably doomed statewide in Democrat-dominated California.

It’s just a matter of math: Democrats hold a nearly 2-to-1 advantage over Republicans in voter registration statewide. And independent voters — registered as “no party preference” — lean toward Democrats.

The apparent lack of heavy support in the former Republican stronghold of Orange County is one reason why the GOP-backed effort to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom seems headed for failure if it qualifies for a statewide ballot, as now seems likely.

A poll of 703 Orange County adults sponsored by Chapman University shows that they’re basically split over whether Newsom should be ousted before his term expires at the end of 2022 — a bad sign for recall pushers. In fact, Orange County residents lean slightly against the proposed recall, according to the survey.

Asked whether Newsom should be recalled, 48% of those interviewed answered yes and 52% said no.

Their views were largely shaped by political partisanship, of course. Among Republicans, 80% favored recalling the governor while 84% of Democrats opposed it. A slim majority of independents, 53%, supported the recall.

The last major independent statewide poll on the recall was conducted in late January by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.

Among registered voters, 36% favored the recall and 45% opposed it, with 19% undecided.

In Orange County alone, the IGS survey found 45% supporting the recall — similar to the Chapman survey — but only 39% opposed, with 16% undecided.

“The recall would have to be doing much better in Orange County if it were to be successful,” says Chapman political science professor Fred Smoller, who oversaw the poll.
[...]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-04/skelton-orange-county-republicans-democrats-california-governor-newsom-recall-chances
Yeah, this isn't the OC of the 1990s and 2000s anymore.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 11 queries.