Would Orange county vote for newsome or faulconer in a recall election?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Newsom has lost a significant amount of support since his election in '18. The recall will be a yes/no with a 2nd question of which candidate will replace Newsom (only goes into effect if yes wins). I suspect if the recall looks like 56/44 (which is what it looks around right now) Orange County would vote pretty solidly yes. They also have a large disproportionate share of signatures for it. He barely won in it 2018 so I don't see how they don't vote to recall him.

Yeah, OC is blue, but not nearly Dem enough to be able to vote against recalling Newsom.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More of an opinion piece, but some interesting factoids nonetheless.

LA Times: Orange County a problem for Newsom recall effort

If a Republican cause can’t win big in Orange County, it’s probably doomed statewide in Democrat-dominated California.

It’s just a matter of math: Democrats hold a nearly 2-to-1 advantage over Republicans in voter registration statewide. And independent voters — registered as “no party preference” — lean toward Democrats.

The apparent lack of heavy support in the former Republican stronghold of Orange County is one reason why the GOP-backed effort to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom seems headed for failure if it qualifies for a statewide ballot, as now seems likely.

A poll of 703 Orange County adults sponsored by Chapman University shows that they’re basically split over whether Newsom should be ousted before his term expires at the end of 2022 — a bad sign for recall pushers. In fact, Orange County residents lean slightly against the proposed recall, according to the survey.

Asked whether Newsom should be recalled, 48% of those interviewed answered yes and 52% said no.

Their views were largely shaped by political partisanship, of course. Among Republicans, 80% favored recalling the governor while 84% of Democrats opposed it. A slim majority of independents, 53%, supported the recall.

The last major independent statewide poll on the recall was conducted in late January by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.

Among registered voters, 36% favored the recall and 45% opposed it, with 19% undecided.

In Orange County alone, the IGS survey found 45% supporting the recall — similar to the Chapman survey — but only 39% opposed, with 16% undecided.

“The recall would have to be doing much better in Orange County if it were to be successful,” says Chapman political science professor Fred Smoller, who oversaw the poll.
[...]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-04/skelton-orange-county-republicans-democrats-california-governor-newsom-recall-chances

Yeah, this isn't the OC of the 1990s and 2000s anymore.