Is Nevada trending Republican

[Motorcity]

Since Democrats peak performance in 2008, the margin of victory has been getting smaller and smaller in Nevada

2008: 12.5%
2012: 6.48%
2016: 2.42%
2020: 2.39%

Here is how many more votes Democrats got over Republicans

2008: 122k
2012: 67k
2016: 27k
2020: 33k

Since 2008, Republicans have added 258k voters while Democrats have only added 169k voters

In 2016, Nevada was closer than Arizona was

I think Obama was a really good candidate for Nevada but otherwise its still a toss up and should be treated as such

Thoughts?

[Galeel]

Pretty undeniably yes, democrats are way overconfident there

[pppolitics]

Democratic Party is becoming more and more, the party of the college-educated, and Nevada is one of the least college-educated states in the country.

[Red Wall]

Yes the only reason democrats are keeping it is because of the Harry Reid machine.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

I just realized that Nevada in 2020 was exactly where Michigan was in 2016 in it's relationship with the NPV, about 2 points to the right.  Ironically, Michigan trended about half a point left in 2020.

It most certainly is trending right based on the pure raw data, even in 2020 to the skepticism of many.  The real question is will the GOP capitalize on it, and will the trends continue until it's a pure swing state or if they'll halt.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Since Democrats peak performance in 2008, the margin of victory has been getting smaller and smaller in Nevada

2008: 12.5%
2012: 6.48%
2016: 2.42%
2020: 2.39%

Here is how many more votes Democrats got over Republicans

2008: 122k
2012: 67k
2016: 27k
2020: 33k

Since 2008, Republicans have added 258k voters while Democrats have only added 169k voters

In 2016, Nevada was closer than Arizona was [AZ went solidly for Trump though?]

I think Obama was a really good candidate for Nevada but otherwise its still a toss up and should be treated as such

Thoughts?

2008 probably isn’t the best reference point considering the Great Recession started that year and Obama won in an EC landslide. But yeah, Trump did surprisingly well here and the multi-cycle trends do not look good for the Dems.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NV's been weird. It lurched left in 2008 and since then has shifted and trended rightwards every cycle since then. NV is a state that has relatively low educational attainment, so my guess would be if the divide continues to grow in politics, it will shift right and could very well flip in the near future.

[Chips]

Pretty undeniably yes, democrats are way overconfident there

[MargieCat]

I think Trump was a good fit for Nevada.

Vegas is all about showbiz and Trump is a showman.

I can't see Ted Cruz or Mike Pence outperforming Trump there.

[SnowLabrador]

Yes.

[Ogre Mage]

Possibly at the presidential level.  But the state-level government presents a different picture.

Nevada Republicans only own one statewide office -- Secretary of State.  Nevada Democrats control everything else:  Governor, both U.S. Senate seats, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Treasurer, Controller, 3 out of 4 U.S. House seats and a majority of the State Legislature.  It is the worst position the Nevada GOP has been in at the state level since probably the 1940s.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

NV's been weird. It lurched left in 2008 and since then has shifted and trended rightwards every cycle since then. NV is a state that has relatively low educational attainment, so my guess would be if the divide continues to grow in politics, it will shift right and could very well flip in the near future.

We need liberals from California and Washington to move to Nevada to solidify the SUNBELT STACK.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NV's been weird. It lurched left in 2008 and since then has shifted and trended rightwards every cycle since then. NV is a state that has relatively low educational attainment, so my guess would be if the divide continues to grow in politics, it will shift right and could very well flip in the near future.

We need liberals from California and Washington to move to Nevada to solidify the SUNBELT STACK.

Honestly, us Democrats tend to be very poorly distributed across the. We tend to concentrate ourselves in the same few deep blue states and really only move to one sided cities.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No

[pbrower2a]

2008 was a bad year for Vegas gambling due to the economic meltdown. It was also the year of the real-estate meltdown, Las Vegas having been an epicenter of speculative activity.

Go figure 2016. Nevada isn't exactly an intellectual-friendly state. Donald Trump is the most anti-intellectual Presidential candidate in a very long time, unless you are speaking of some third-Party nominee who might get 2% of the vote or less.

2020 was a disaster for the gambling industry in Nevada due to COVID-19, and I can imagine many people in it going elsewhere for work. The  R-leaning ranching and mining industries weren't hit too hard, but the people who work in those two industries are very different from those in the tourist trade that depends heavily upon casino gambling.

In an election with a similar overall result in the popular vote to 2012, Nevada probably gives about a 5% margin to the Democrat.

[AGA]

This state's economy was destroyed by shutdowns and Biden still won it by over two points. I wonder if Nevada will be like Minnesota in that Republicans will be salivating over it for four years only for it to swing D. It could be trending Republican, but I doubt it flips in 2024.

[pbrower2a]

This state's economy was destroyed by shutdowns and Biden still won it by over two points. I wonder if Nevada will be like Minnesota in that Republicans will be salivating over it for four years only for it to swing D. It could be trending Republican, but I doubt it flips in 2024.

If I am to guess what state is demographically most like Nevada it is New Mexico. New Mexico may not have as strong an economy (like Nevada it really is a low-income state) but it does not depend as heavily on one industry as does Nevada.   

[Flyersfan232]

I will wait till after 2022

[Orser67]

I don't know if it's truly trending Republican, or if it's just a closely divided state where both parties have high floors. But clearly, it's not a state that Democrats can take for granted, either in 2022 or 2024.

[TDAS04]

In the long run?  I doubt it.  Trump just overperformed last time due to improvement among minorities and Covid resulting in unions' difficulty in mobilizing the vote.  Nevada has trended Democratic since 2000, and Bill Clinton's wins there were razor-thin.

I would be surprised if Nevada doesn't vote to the left of the nation again in 2024.  Demographically, the state is increasingly similar to California.

[Nyssus]

Pretty undeniably yes, democrats are way overconfident there

[BigVic]

No.

[EastwoodS]

If you say “no” don’t you dare say Texas is trending blue.

[TML]

Yes, it trended Republican in 2020, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will flip. You can say that North Carolina has trended Democratic in recent election cycles, but was that enough for the state to flip? No.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It could be at the beginning stages of a trend or 2020 could have been a shutdown induced one-off snap back, so we will have to see going forward what happens there.