Is Nevada trending Republican

[Senator-elect Spark]

Yes, it trended Republican in 2020, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will flip. You can say that North Carolina has trended Democratic in recent election cycles, but was that enough for the state to flip? No.

This.

[Bojack Horseman]

NV's been weird. It lurched left in 2008 and since then has shifted and trended rightwards every cycle since then. NV is a state that has relatively low educational attainment, so my guess would be if the divide continues to grow in politics, it will shift right and could very well flip in the near future.

We need liberals from California and Washington to move to Nevada to solidify the SUNBELT STACK.

I know this isn't the best source for Nevada politics but I follow the VGK and in the social media groups I'm in related to them every political post says something along the lines of everyone living in Nevada who's from California should be rounded up and deported back there.

[Real Texan Politics]

It's certainly possible that Trump could've won the state both times had he done better in the suburbs.

As for 2020, I wonder if the slight trend was due to his pro-business and pro-reopening the economy stance, considering how much of a dip the tourism industry took during that year (and with tourism pretty much being the main source of the Nevada economy).

I wouldn't write off a flip, but I wouldn't write off NV staying with the dems either.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It certainly *has* been trending Republican. Whether or not that continues for 2024 is a much more difficult question, but for the moment I lean yes.

[Xing]

It's regressed a bit to the mean, but I don't think it's "becoming a red state." Again, Republicans have a math problem in the state, and unless Republicans can start doing better among urban voters, they're going to have a hard time winning here. It's not "Titanium D", but I do think people are overreacting to the 2020 results here, as well as some other places like New Hampshire. It's as though every other election which has occurred in these two states doesn't matter anymore.

[I’m not Stu]

Nevada is a swing state. It trended Republican after trending Democratic. I don't think Nevada is becoming like Ohio and Missouri. I always thought the state has remained reliably swingy. Isn't Nevada, maybe with the exception of its Mormon population, a largely secular state?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs want to blame Biden on Trump Recession that why we have so many users creating R friendly maps, lol this isn't 2009 anymore, Biden has 52 Percent approvals with more stimulus coming


No one is challenging CCM and Rosen is safe too in 2024

[Statilius the Epicurean]

NV's been weird. It lurched left in 2008 and since then has shifted and trended rightwards every cycle since then. NV is a state that has relatively low educational attainment, so my guess would be if the divide continues to grow in politics, it will shift right and could very well flip in the near future.

We need liberals from California and Washington to move to Nevada to solidify the SUNBELT STACK.

Honestly, us Democrats tend to be very poorly distributed across the. We tend to concentrate ourselves in the same few deep blue states and really only move to one sided cities.

"Democrat" isn't an immutable characteristic lol. Democrats concentrate in cities because the Democratic Party has chosen to tailor itself to the views of people living in cities. I know it's only semi-serious, but the meme that urban progressives should colonise flyover country instead of, like, bothering to appeal to people who already live there is honestly kind of bizarre.

Anyway, Nevada is a swing state. It will probably vote with the winner in 2024 and 2028.

[MT Treasurer]

It's regressed a bit to the mean, but I don't think it's "becoming a red state." Again, Republicans have a math problem in the state, and unless Republicans can start doing better among urban voters, they're going to have a hard time winning here. It's not "Titanium D", but I do think people are overreacting to the 2020 results here, as well as some other places like New Hampshire. It's as though every other election which has occurred in these two states doesn't matter anymore.

Yeah, with regard to NV, people are just overreacting to the state's R trend in 2012.... and the R blowouts in 2014.... and the R trend in 2016.... and the state's closeness and R swing in 2020...

When it comes to NH, they’re just overreacting to Obama's easy win against 'great fit' Romney in 2012... and Jeanne Shaheen's win in 2014.... and Ayotte's and Trump's losses in 2016.... and Shaheen's blowout win in 2020...

People just keep overreacting and overreacting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not, stop it with this NV trend of R

[Xing]

It's regressed a bit to the mean, but I don't think it's "becoming a red state." Again, Republicans have a math problem in the state, and unless Republicans can start doing better among urban voters, they're going to have a hard time winning here. It's not "Titanium D", but I do think people are overreacting to the 2020 results here, as well as some other places like New Hampshire. It's as though every other election which has occurred in these two states doesn't matter anymore.

Yeah, with regard to NV, people are just overreacting to the state's R trend in 2012.... and the R blowouts in 2014.... and the R trend in 2016.... and the state's closeness and R swing in 2020...

When it comes to NH, they’re just overreacting to Obama's easy win against 'great fit' Romney in 2012... and Jeanne Shaheen's win in 2014.... and Ayotte's and Trump's losses in 2016.... and Shaheen's blowout win in 2020...

People just keep overreacting and overreacting.

Sandoval’s blowout in 2014 tells us about as much as Sununu’s blowout last year. (Arguably less, since it was in a red wave year over six years ago and Democrats never even pretended to invest in that race.) And how is Nevada’s whopping <0.1% “R swing” any more “undeniable proof” that Nevada is trending Republican than NH trending Republican in 2008, 2012, and 2016? Or Sununu winning in a blue wave year? If Clinton, Shaheen, and Hassan winning make NH a tough state for Republicans, why shouldn’t Clinton, Masto, Rosen, and Sisolak all winning (despite analysts calling these races “tough” for Democrats) say the same about NV? The presidential results of 2020 are literally the only example of NH voting substantially left of NV, thus why I think rating the two states very differently can only be explained by putting too much stock in those results alone.

[DaleCooper]

Nevada is a mixed bag. It is undeniably trending Republican, and any competitive state where Biden did worse than Hillary should raise red flags for the Democratic Party.

[un]

Nevada is sorta stuck in this limbo, where its always a tossup, but votes Democratic at the end of the day, similar to Florida with the Republicans. That being said, I would never get too cocky about Nevada, Democrats should invest in defending that as Arizona as far as I'm concerned.