KY-Mason Dixon: Sen. Rand Paul +6 on re-election, +9 job approval

[Tender Branson]

47% re-elect
41% replace

53% approve
44% disapprove

This poll was conducted from Feb. 1 through 4. A total of 625 registered Kentucky voters were interviewed statewide by telephone Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Kentucky voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county.

https://www.lex18.com/news/covering-kentucky/poll-sen-rand-paul-projected-to-win-reelection-in-2022

[Roll Roons]

We're really doing this again, huh?

[Tender Branson]

We're really doing this again, huh?

No surprise.

KY ain’t voting for a DEM Senator soon.

[Gracile]

Safe R, nothing to see here.

Honestly, what’s even the point of polling Kentucky?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

i hate the "replace vs re-elect" polls. They always way underestimate incumbents.

[SnowLabrador]

i hate the "replace vs re-elect" polls. They always way underestimate incumbents.

[WD]

more likely to flip than nh (imo)

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Tossup, according to Alben Barkley.

[UWS]

As far as I know, Rand Paul is more popular than his fellow Kentuckian Mitch McConnell. So if the Democrats couldn't even have defeated McConnell, how can we expect them to impose a serious campaign against Paul? Especially in a dark red state like Kentucky.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rand Paul is safe

[MT Treasurer]

more likely to flip than nh (imo)

I could see NH flipping before KY but only if (a) Sununu runs, (b) Sununu's approval rating is at least 70% on election day (he’ll need that to make the case for voting out a strong/popular incumbent + it’s a federal race), (c) he distances himself from Trump and Kim/MTG, and (d) he scores at least 18/20 on my candidate quality evaluation sheet in October 2022.

It’s definitely more likely to flip than AZ and NV, though... I mean, Andy Biggs? The AZ(Q)OP? These guys wouldn’t be able to hold a candle to ALG, Andy Beshear, and the KY Dems if their life depended on it. CCM? Sandoval is the only one who might make it competitive against her, and even he would probably lose 50.06%-47.67%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

more likely to flip than nh (imo)

I could see NH flipping before KY but only if (a) Sununu runs, (b) Sununu's approval rating is at least 70% on election day (he’ll need that to make the case for voting out a strong/popular incumbent + it’s a federal race), (c) he distances himself from Trump and Kim/MTG, and (d) he scores at least 18/20 on my candidate quality evaluation sheet in October 2022.

It’s definitely more likely to flip than AZ and NV, though... I mean, Andy Biggs? The AZ(Q)OP? These guys wouldn’t be able to hold a candle to ALG, Andy Beshear, and the KY Dems if their life depended on it. CCM? Sandoval is the only one who might make it competitive against her, and even he would probably lose 50.06%-47.67%.

Sununu is gonna have answer why did he veto the minimum wage against Hassan and he is vulnerable on that. He has yet to be scrutined by the press, natl press is different than local press

[UWS]

more likely to flip than nh (imo)

I could see NH flipping before KY but only if (a) Sununu runs, (b) Sununu's approval rating is at least 70% on election day (he’ll need that to make the case for voting out a strong/popular incumbent + it’s a federal race), (c) he distances himself from Trump and Kim/MTG, and (d) he scores at least 18/20 on my candidate quality evaluation sheet in October 2022.

It’s definitely more likely to flip than AZ and NV, though... I mean, Andy Biggs? The AZ(Q)OP? These guys wouldn’t be able to hold a candle to ALG, Andy Beshear, and the KY Dems if their life depended on it. CCM? Sandoval is the only one who might make it competitive against her, and even he would probably lose 50.06%-47.67%.

Sununu is gonna have answer why did he veto the minimum wage against Hassan and he is vulnerable on that. He has yet to be scrutined by the press, natl press is different than local press

Not so much. Hassan has also recently announced on February 3 that she opposed raising the federal minimum wage to $15/hour. So attacking Sununu on that issue would make her look like a hypocrite.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maggie_Hassan#Federal_Minimum_Wage

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

i hate the "replace vs re-elect" polls. They always way underestimate incumbents.

Tbf, it's reeelct Paul vs generic Democrat in this poll, but Gen. Eric is much more popular than his footsoldiers in Kentucky.

[gerritcole]

amy mcgrath round 3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I bet if we have a Ryan v Mandel poll it would be 47/41 Mandel. KY is very similar to OH that's why Rs shouldn't take OH for granted

Of course Paul is safe, the only person that wants to run against him is Charles Booker

[President Johnson]

Here we are again. Safe Republican. Nothing to see here.

[GALeftist]

EVERYONBE DONAT $100 QUICK

[Suburbia]

I think Rand Paul retires anyway, he has health problems

Doesn't he risk breaking a term-limit pledge?

[Astatine]

I think Rand Paul retires anyway, he has health problems

Doesn't he risk breaking a term-limit pledge?

*laughs in Orrin Hatch*

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Amy McGrath wants another $90 million to lose again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only person willing to challenge Paul is Charles Booker and no one is gonna donate to him

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I doubt Paul loses, but he has a history of under performing expected baseline in Kentucky and that is something to look out for. Not that Mitch has done much better on that score anyway.

[NewYorkExpress]

Paul might have a race on his hands if Democrats can lure in Beshear (or alternatively, Alison Lundergan Grimes, for instance). He's more vulnerable than McConnell ever has been.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Paul might have a race on his hands if Democrats can lure in Beshear (or alternatively, Alison Lundergan Grimes, for instance). He's more vulnerable than McConnell ever has been.

No, it's the other way around. McConnell tends to have the worst favourability ratings in Washington DC and was able to turn losing races around by bringing home pork and influence. As this has failed to reverse the state's fortunes, he continually runs the risk of KY voters losing patience with this tactic, although he only loses 2026 if it's some insane blue wave at this point (under a Republican president) in addition to a Rocky Adkins run.

Rand Paul does not have to deal with the negative partisanship of being the long-time Republican Senate majority leader but nor is he seen as a swamp creature in the way McConnell is by many Republicans. He avoids the worst of both worlds. Perhaps he'll underperform the baseline, but that's irrelevant in a polarised Democratic midterm in blood-red Kentucky, especially if he's running against a former row officer who already lost a more winnable race to the more electorally vulnerable McConnell. This is extremely safe R and I'm more interested in the Democratic primary. Judging by the undeserved hype, I rate it lean grifter.