2020: Yang vs Trump

[mikhaela]

How would Yang have done against Trump?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Landslide for Yang. Yang appeals to progressives, moderate dems, libertarians, neocons, Trumpists and alt-righters. Yang has the broadest support.

[NewYorkExpress]

Hmm.... Yang had the potential to be either a really good candidate for Democrats or a really bad one.

We might find out more about what kind of nominee he could have been if he manages to get himself elected Mayor of New York City this year.



Andrew Yang/Tammy Baldwin (D) 51%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 47%

[Chips]

Andrew Yang: 298 electoral votes
President Trump: 240 electoral votes

It would've likely been a weird map.

[Real Texan Politics]

Remember that WI, MI, PA, and NV are lean, while IA, GA, NC, and AZ are tilt.

Running mates are Mike Pence for Trump (obviously) and Tulsi Gabbard for Yang.

Now for my hot take margins:

Tilt/lean
Iowa (closest state overall): Yang +0.1
North Carolina: Yang +0.2
Arizona: Yang +0.25
Georgia: Yang +0.3
Wisconsin: Yang +1.1
Nevada: Yang +2
Pennsylvania: Yang +2.2
Michigan: Yang +3.4

Florida: Trump +2.3
Texas: Trump +4.9
Ohio: Trump +4.7
ME-02: Trump +4.8

Likely
Alaska: Trump +8.8
South Carolina: Trump +11
Montana: Trump +12
Kansas: Trump +13.8
NE-01: Trump +14.5
Missouri: Trump +14.8

NE-02: Yang +7.4
Minnesota: Yang +8
New Hampshire: Yang +9.5
New Mexico: Yang +12
Maine-AL: Yang +13.7
Virginia: Yang +14
Colorado: Yang +15 (technically safe)

I'd say Yang wins the PV by about 5? Maybe 6 at the most?

And here's the map without PV shading:

[lord_moxley]

[Andrew Yang 2024]

Iowa is the flip of the night, barely going for Yang by 0.42 points.