TX-06: Dems in Disarray!

[Devils30]

https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_6th_Congressional_District

Only 27% with college degree here. I thought it was better but GA-6 is 56% and GA-7 37%. Not to mention this one doesn’t have the black voters that those two have. Dems need to at least contest places like this even if it’s a likely loss at this stage.

[EastwoodS]

Wright is going to the runoff, no question about it. But Sanchez is actually closing the gap from the 2-3 points earlier. It is now less than 400 votes.

Hopefully she can still make the runoff.

There are only 9 precincts from Tarrant left.

It’s over.

It’s going to be a 2xR runoff.

Tarrant favors Sanchez over Ellzey though.

All of Tarrant now in, Ellezey defeats Sanchez by 354 votes apparently. Provisionals not included.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wright is going to the runoff, no question about it. But Sanchez is actually closing the gap from the 2-3 points earlier. It is now less than 400 votes.

Hopefully she can still make the runoff.

There are only 9 precincts from Tarrant left.

It’s over.

It’s going to be a 2xR runoff.

Tarrant favors Sanchez over Ellzey though.

All of Tarrant now in, Ellezey defeats Sanchez by 354 votes apparently. Provisionals not included.

How are provisionals likely to go?

[EastwoodS]

Wright is going to the runoff, no question about it. But Sanchez is actually closing the gap from the 2-3 points earlier. It is now less than 400 votes.

Hopefully she can still make the runoff.

There are only 9 precincts from Tarrant left.

It’s over.

It’s going to be a 2xR runoff.

Tarrant favors Sanchez over Ellzey though.

All of Tarrant now in, Ellezey defeats Sanchez by 354 votes apparently. Provisionals not included.

How are provisionals likely to go?

No clue, tbh. But I doubt there’s enough to overcome a 354 vote lead.

[Roll Roons]

So what's the rating for a Wright vs. Ellzey runoff?

[Tender Branson]

Dems miss the runoff by 354 votes !!!

100% counted.

https://results.texas-election.com

How STUPID are they ?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I still think that Wood could pull this off.

(Sorry, it is the moderate republican part of my brain)


The Washington Post says that tarrant is only 90.5% in.

[Tender Branson]

I still think that Wood could pull this off.

(Sorry, it is the moderate republican part of my brain)


The Washington Post says that tarrant is only 90.5% in.

They have not updated.

The TX SoS page has 100% in already.

[EastwoodS]

I still think that Wood could pull this off.

(Sorry, it is the moderate republican part of my brain)


The Washington Post says that tarrant is only 90.5% in.

They have not updated.

The TX SoS page has 100% in already.

Lmao, he is being sarcastic

[Non Swing Voter]

Wow a lot of the high profile candidates like Rodimer, Wood, and Kim had really awful showings. 

What's Rodimer's next move?  Alaska to primary Murkowski? 

[Matty]

Interesting note:

tarramt county turnout was lower than both ellis and navarro county

interesting because tarrant is where all the high propensity suburban voters live

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1388719766542692353

[Stuart98]

Ellzey had a lot more funding than Wright did (especially with outside groups taken into account), so he probably had a much more robust turnout game in his base.

[DINGO Joe]

Is Sanchez done, or can she still squeak into the runoff?

It would require a minor miracle from the remaining vote in Tarrant.

Not really sure why the Dems ran several candidates capable of getting more than 5% here. Should have coalesced around one and forced others out/to states of non-campaigning. Then you can get someone to 30% and basically guarantee they advance.

While I didn't follow this much, it doesn't seem like any candidate did anything worthy of "coalescing" and given the demographics of the district  it would take an exceptional candidate to generate enough interest to make the runoff competitive.  Obviously, none of these could do it.  Of course, the Rs were mediocre too.

[Vosem]

With 100% in Ellzey leads Sanchez by 354 votes for the second slot. Wright called as the winner of the first slot, no call for the second slot.

District-wide partisan total: Republicans 62.1, Democrats 37.1, ind (Mizher) 0.4, Libertarian 0.3

There are reasons to take this number with a grain of salt -- the local majority party always over-performs open jungle primaries, Democrats are notoriously sh**t at Texas special elections, the Republican candidates put in way more effort here, incumbents usually get a sympathy boost in a special election caused by a death, turnout was low -- but even considering all that, R+25 in a Trump+3 seat is way better for the GOP than any polling here or anywhere else suggested, and for them to out-perform Romney in this left-trending seat is astounding. (This was Romney '12 58-41, Trump '16 54-42, Trump '20 51-48. Abbott '18 56-42, Abbott '14 58-40...). Balls-to-the-wall performance.

EDIT: The "Obama Second Term, Second Time" vibes are really strong with this outcome.

[Benjamin Frank]

Wow a lot of the high profile candidates like Rodimer, Wood, and Kim had really awful showings.  

What's Rodimer's next move?  Alaska to primary Murkowski?  

More evidence that the media tends to focus on the sensational - the more interesting/controversial candidates, as much as if not more than the actual frontrunners.

[beesley]

Wood is beating Rodimer, which we can all be happy about.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Wow a lot of the high profile candidates like Rodimer, Wood, and Kim had really awful showings.  

What's Rodimer's next move?  Alaska to primary Murkowski?  

More evidence that the media tends to focus on the sensational - the more interesting/controversial candidates, as much as if not more than the actual frontrunners.

It seems my $100 on Wood was wasted.

[Intell]

Interesting note:

tarramt county turnout was lower than both ellis and navarro county

interesting because tarrant is where all the high propensity suburban voters live

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1388719766542692353

Tarrant is much more working class and minority heavy than people think, especially the Tarrant portion of TX-06.

[LtNOWIS]

Wow a lot of the high profile candidates like Rodimer, Wood, and Kim had really awful showings.  

What's Rodimer's next move?  Alaska to primary Murkowski?  

More evidence that the media tends to focus on the sensational - the more interesting/controversial candidates, as much as if not more than the actual frontrunners.

It seems my $100 on Wood was wasted.

I would've given him money if I remembered, but it's probably better I didn't.

I suppose it's good to see Trump's chosen candidate Susan Wright get an embarrassingly low portion of the vote, right? As an anti-Trumper, should I should be rooting for this guy Ellzey as the slightly better option?

[Bootes Void]

So far all special elections have been R vs R or D vs D. Interesting.

[Horus]

Wow a lot of the high profile candidates like Rodimer, Wood, and Kim had really awful showings.  

What's Rodimer's next move?  Alaska to primary Murkowski?  

More evidence that the media tends to focus on the sensational - the more interesting/controversial candidates, as much as if not more than the actual frontrunners.

It seems my $100 on Wood was wasted.

I would've given him money if I remembered, but it's probably better I didn't.

I suppose it's good to see Trump's chosen candidate Susan Wright get an embarrassingly low portion of the vote, right? As an anti-Trumper, should I should be rooting for this guy Ellzey as the slightly better option?

Trump doesn't always endorse the worst candidate. He endorsed the admittedly awful but not a sex predator Mo Brooks over Roy Moore in the AL-Senate special and also went with Madison Cawthorn's opponent.

[beesley]

Wow a lot of the high profile candidates like Rodimer, Wood, and Kim had really awful showings.  

What's Rodimer's next move?  Alaska to primary Murkowski?  

More evidence that the media tends to focus on the sensational - the more interesting/controversial candidates, as much as if not more than the actual frontrunners.

It seems my $100 on Wood was wasted.

I would've given him money if I remembered, but it's probably better I didn't.

I suppose it's good to see Trump's chosen candidate Susan Wright get an embarrassingly low portion of the vote, right? As an anti-Trumper, should I should be rooting for this guy Ellzey as the slightly better option?

Trump doesn't always endorse the worst candidate. He endorsed the admittedly awful but not a sex predator Mo Brooks over Roy Moore in the AL-Senate special and also went with Madison Cawthorn's opponent.

He pays far less attention than you think and often endorses who his advisers or Kevin McCarthy tell him to. He also tends not to endorse candidates he doesn't think will win with his endorsement.

[It’s so Joever]

After today, the only question now is whether Democrats lose 20 or 50 seats.

[Woody]

?

[beesley]

Nothing of value