MA-GOV 2022 Megathread

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I won't rule out the long possibility of a moderate who can survive the base, like Richard Ross, jumping in and winning, nor of Baker "deciding" both nominees are "too extreme" and getting in as an independent at the last minute, but as it stands this moves to a 95%+ D race.

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Am I the only one surprised that MA-GOP even has a Trump wing that threatened to primary Baker in the first place?

New England is very white, irreligious, and deindustrialized. Not sure why anyone would be surprised that the small contingent of Republican voters tends towards Trump. The "moderate" reputation of the state parties is due to their domination by a small handful of donors and experienced organizers.

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Ayyadurai’s main function will be to make Diehl look good.

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Ayyadurai’s main function will be to make Diehl look good.

What are the odds Diehl gets the nomination?

High. He already has Trump's endorsement and with Baker and Polito both out there isn't any obvious heavyweight on the non-Trumpist/relatively-moderate wing of the state party to countervail that.

Hillman could run but I think he's enjoying retirement. Richard Ross could also run. Have heard buzz about Lelling positioning himself as a moderate focused on crime and immigration, which people forget is the platform Baker actually ran on.

Winning the primary is historically largely about fundraising in Boston, which Diehl may have a problem doing. Or the donors could just write off the race entirely and go for the Democrats.

The interesting question will be whether a serious independent gets in, even if not Baker or Polito. We had two races with one and then two without and there's plenty of space for one with Diehl as the nominee. If Democrats somehow nominate someone other than Walsh, Healey, or Kennedy, I could even see an independent winning.

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The Lt. Governor primary is shaping up to be a clown car

It often is. Check out 1982, when John Kerry won with 29% of the vote.

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The Lt. Governor primary is shaping up to be a clown car

I don’t get how it’s a “race” when they run as a ticket and are picked by the canidate for Gov.

Because they're not always picked by the candidate for Governor? Healey could very well stay out of the LG race.

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No shock there.

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@Mark: I don’t see this being a particularly strong year for Massachusetts Republicans, and they’re all basically sacrificial lambs in any cycle, but the Brockton race probably drew a challenger because Brady is a particularly weak incumber: ethics issues, multiple DUIs, and low support within his own party. Unlike most of the Democrats I’m not sure if he’s ever run unopposed.

The district is also a bit inelastic in that it encircles Brockton in with some of the most Republican towns east of Worcester. In an election where Republicans and independents turn out but Brockton Democrats just don’t show, Republicans could have a prayer. Diehl’s also from the district, which should boost their turnout a bit. (Brockton also has a non-negligible white Hispanic population, though there wasn’t much movement there compared to the Portuguese areas further south.)

Looks like redistricting has added Randolph, though, so the Democrats should still be safe. Not sure if Brady has a primary challenger again, but he’d be ripe for one.

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@Mark: I don’t see this being a particularly strong year for Massachusetts Republicans, and they’re all basically sacrificial lambs in any cycle, but the Brockton race probably drew a challenger because Brady is a particularly weak incumber: ethics issues, multiple DUIs, and low support within his own party. Unlike most of the Democrats I’m not sure if he’s ever run unopposed.

The district is also a bit inelastic in that it encircles Brockton in with some of the most Republican towns east of Worcester. In an election where Republicans and independents turn out but Brockton Democrats just don’t show, Republicans could have a prayer. Diehl’s also from the district, which should boost their turnout a bit. (Brockton also has a non-negligible white Hispanic population, though there wasn’t much movement there compared to the Portuguese areas further south.)

Looks like redistricting has added Randolph, though, so the Democrats should still be safe. Not sure if Brady has a primary challenger again, but he’d be ripe for one.

Yes, Brady has one opponent in the D primary: Katrina M. Huff-Larmond of Randolph. He had an opponent in the primary two years ago, but not in 2016 or 2018. And yes, given that five of the twelve precincts of Randolph were added to the district, that still ensures it will be pretty safe D.

I'd give Huff-Larmond pretty decent odds; she should carry Randolph pretty easily and Brady lost Brockton last time out. And I'd wager a lot of potential Brady voters will take an R ballot or just stay home.

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I think his actual ceiling is significantly higher, something like 43%. But he’ll settle in around 36% in the end.

I will say it's funny that the former Obama voter (Diehl) is an "ultraconservative" while the lifelong Republican partisan (Baker) is a "moderate." Baker has also done a hell of a lot more for Trump than Diehl through party fundraising, but Diehl embraces Trump publicly while Baker disdains him. Shows how much of everything is skin-deep framing and more so than ever in the Trump era.

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Weld is such a character.

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I disagree with Jim Lyons on very little, but he was clearly a terrible manager. Unclear Carnevale will be much better, but she is at least better positioned for success. Lyons never really had a shot even without his shortcomings.