MA-GOV 2022 Megathread

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I couldn’t find an existing megathread for the 2022 Massachusetts Gubernatorial election. Please feel free to merge this with an existing thread if I missed it!

This morning, former state senator Ben Downing (D) announced that he’s running for Governor. This is the first formally declared candidate for Democrats.

https://twitter.com/bendowningma/status/1358754956514373633?s=21

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https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1401864794584535042?s=20

A lot of MA politics news in this article this morning. Some highlights:

• Governor: It remains unclear what Gov. Charlie Baker (R) and Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito's (R) plans are for 2022. State Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz (D) is still strongly considering a run for Governor (and was spotted with a film crew this weekend, perhaps filming an announcement video).
• Lieutenant Governor: Businessman Bret Bero (D) launched an exploratory committee. He joins State Rep. Tami Gouveia (D), who also just announced her candidacy. State Sen. Adam Hinds (D), State Sen. Eric Lesser (D), and Scott Donahue (D) are also considered to be potential candidates for Lieutenant Governor. On the Republican side, former State Rep. and 2018 U.S. Senate nominee Geoff Diehl (R) may be leaning towards a run for Lieutenant Governor rather than Governor (as was previously reported).
• Attorney General: State Sen. Eric Lesser (D) is also considered a potential candidate for this office.
• Auditor: State Sen. Diana DiZoglio (D) launched a bid to succeed retiring State Auditor Suzanne Bump (D)

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https://twitter.com/allenforma/status/1404785792833101829?s=21

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https://twitter.com/soniachangdiaz/status/1407640316165988358?s=21

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https://twitter.com/wcvb/status/1411828553851850756?s=21

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I'm from Massachusetts. Baker will have no problems in either the primary or the general election.

Agreed about the general election (Baker would almost certainly win the general election again), but I’m not so certain Baker will win the primary this time. I think Baker is probably still favored to be the Republican nominee, but it’s no guarantee. Baker’s primary opponent in 2018 (Scott Lively) got 36% of the vote. Geoff Diehl is a much more serious candidate than Lively was, and Baker is not as popular with the Republican base as he was 4 years ago. I don’t think we should rule out a Diehl upset, especially if the Trump base unites behind one candidate.

If Diehl is the Republican nominee, I think this race is Safe Democratic.

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This seems to rule out a run for Governor next year:

https://twitter.com/joecurtatone/status/1435592063542824965?s=21

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What are the chances Baker doesn't run for a third term?

My take is 50-50, but some MA posters perhaps know better.

Agreed, could go either way. I personally get the sense that Baker is tired/worn out as a result of managing the state during COVID. My prediction is that he retires, and endorses his Lieutenant Governor (Karyn Polito) to succeed him.

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What are the chances Baker doesn't run for a third term?

My take is 50-50, but some MA posters perhaps know better.

Agreed, could go either way. I personally get the sense that Baker is tired/worn out as a result of managing the state during COVID. My prediction is that he retires, and endorses his Lieutenant Governor (Karyn Polito) to succeed him.

That's possible, but isn't she a conservative? Any halfway decent Democratic candidate should easily win here.

From my understanding, Polito was more conservative at the beginning of her political career (she previously served 10 years as a State Representative) and was popular with conservatives (some speculated that Baker chose her as his running mate to appeal to conservative voters), but has since become more moderate during her time as Lieutenant Governor. Polito reversed her stance on same-sex marriage (she now supports it), is pro-choice, did not support Donald Trump's campaign in 2016 or 2020, and has been a strong ally of Baker's.

I do think Democrats would have a good chance against Polito (especially if Maura Healey runs), but I wouldn't discount Polito, either. Running as a moderate with Baker's support, Polito could win. MA has a long history of electing Republican Governors.

I would rate a Healey vs. Polito matchup as Lean Democrat, but it certainly could go either way (it's also still very early).

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https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1443747326170996741?s=20

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Here's a question about one of the executive positions in MA:

William F. Galvin is in his 27th year as Secretary of the Commonwealth. He has won seven consecutive elections to this position, starting in 1994. He recently celebrated his 71st birthday. Is he going to run for an eighth term?

Probably. Most of these long-tenured statewide officials (i.e. Tom Miller in Iowa, Doug LaFollette in Wisconsin), who've been in office for decades, are running for reelection, just like how most of the longest-serving members of Congress are giving it another go. Jesse White, the Secretary of State of Illinois, however, is retiring.

I haven't heard a lot about this race as of late, but an article in the Boston Globe back in May had the following quote from Galvin: "In November, I’ll be able to give you a succinct answer. The election’s next year. If it were today, I probably would [run].”

So it sounds like we should be getting an answer from Galvin soon, and it looks like he's leaning towards running again. He'll almost certainly win if he wants another term, in my view. In 2018 Galvin was challenged in the Democratic primary by Boston City Councilor Josh Zakim, and despite the fact that Zakim was endorsed by the Massachusetts Democratic Party, Galvin won renomination with about 68% of the vote. So I don't think he'll be vulnerable in the primary (and certainly not in the general election).

According to the article, other possible candidates for Secretary of State include State Senator Jamie Eldridge (if Galvin doesn't run again), and State Senator Rebecca Rausch (who may run regardless of what Galvin does).

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/05/31/metro/changing-guard-massachusettss-2022-election-cycle-could-be-primed-history-turnover/ 

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https://twitter.com/adamghinds/status/1448253615261589510?s=21

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https://twitter.com/globefphillips/status/1465871490713333762?s=21

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Looks like the reporting is being confirmed, an announcement of some kind from Baker is coming today.

https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1466016091499646981?s=21

My prediction is that he won’t run again.

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https://twitter.com/jtuohey21/status/1466044833206874118?s=21

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Baker AND Polito not running:

https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1466060005040431114?s=21

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https://twitter.com/mattpstout/status/1466125048327159811?s=21

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https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1466862061795823618?s=21

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https://twitter.com/mattpstout/status/1468714081007845378?s=21

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https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1469279598345080840?s=21

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Ben Downing drops out

https://twitter.com/bendowningma/status/1475834004213542921?s=21

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https://twitter.com/ericlesser/status/1478336934963466242?s=21

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https://twitter.com/mayordriscoll/status/1480958780049297414?s=21

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https://twitter.com/globescotlehigh/status/1483475835755577353?s=21

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Healey in:

https://twitter.com/maura_healey/status/1484118512972955649?s=21