2012: Santorum vs. Obama

[Chips]

President Obama: 308 electoral votes
Rick Santorum: 230 electoral votes

I think OH and IA would flip by 1% each. Still not enough for Santorum.

[Left Wing]

This may be a bit of an unpopular opinion, but I think Santorum would lose and it wouldn't even be close. His social conservatism is the exact type of least appealing to the American people and he has none of the charisma of Trump. He was even worse of a debator than Romney and Obama would just tear him apart.

IN and MO could go either way but they both also rejected extremely socially conservative candidates that year and I think they might do the same with Santorum. Alaska is very, very close with libertarian leaning Republicans sitting it out, but Santorum still wins the state. Trends in Texas and Georgia get supercharged here, but not enough for Obama to carry either state. Arizona is the surprise flip of the night as John McCain declines to endorse Santorum.

[Chips]

This may be a bit of an unpopular opinion, but I think Santorum would lose and it wouldn't even be close. His social conservatism is the exact type of least appealing to the American people and he has none of the charisma of Trump. He was even worse of a debator than Romney and Obama would just tear him apart.

IN and MO could go either way but they both also rejected extremely socially conservative candidates that year and I think they might do the same with Santorum. Alaska is very, very close with libertarian leaning Republicans sitting it out, but Santorum still wins the state. Trends in Texas and Georgia get supercharged here, but not enough for Obama to carry either state. Arizona is the surprise flip of the night as John McCain declines to endorse Santorum.

That's also a possibility.

[NewYorkExpress]

Obama holds North Carolina, but he loses Iowa and Pennsylvania.

Santorum probably picks Romney as his running mate, interestingly enough.

[Andrew Yang 2024]

He got obliterated in 06 as an incumbent. I don't believe he would win PA. I'd say he loses by like 6-7 in PA.

[NewYorkExpress]

He got obliterated in 06 as an incumbent. I don't believe he would win PA. I'd say he loses by like 6-7 in PA.

And in 2006 he was running as an incumbent Senator in a D wave with a horribly unpopular President for his opponent to run against.

In 2012, he'd have been out of office for six years, the political climate would have been more neutral, Obama wasn't as popular as he was both in 2008 and in 2016.

Pennsylvania's a heavy lift, but doable for Santorum.

[Andrew Yang 2024]

That's fair.