AL-SEN: Shelby retiring

[brucejoel99]

Broke: Hoping for Doug Jones to restore the Democrats.

Woke: Nick Saban and a campaign focused on the failings of Alabama's other senator.

Bespoke: resurrecting Bear Bryant from the dead & running him when Saban inevitably declines.

[brucejoel99]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

[brucejoel99]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

You think Trump’s influence in senate primaries will get bigger now that he’s out of office?

I think being a Trumpist is still the ticket to GOP downballot nominations for the time being.

[brucejoel99]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

You think Trump’s influence in senate primaries will get bigger now that he’s out of office?

I think being a Trumpist is still the ticket to GOP downballot nominations for the time being.

Why do you think that?

I- ...

Because it's been made perfectly clear by literally everything happening in the GOP right now.

[brucejoel99]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

You think Trump’s influence in senate primaries will get bigger now that he’s out of office?

I think being a Trumpist is still the ticket to GOP downballot nominations for the time being.

Why do you think that?

I- ...

Because it's been made perfectly clear by literally everything happening in the GOP right now.

And how does that translate to primary election results?

Praise Trump, win primaries. Literally that simple. Greene. Boebert. Cawthorn. Tuberville.

[brucejoel99]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

You think Trump’s influence in senate primaries will get bigger now that he’s out of office?

I think being a Trumpist is still the ticket to GOP downballot nominations for the time being.

Why do you think that?

I- ...

Because it's been made perfectly clear by literally everything happening in the GOP right now.

And how does that translate to primary election results?

Praise Trump, win primaries. Literally that simple. Greene. Boebert. Cawthorn. Tuberville.

All of those races happened when Trump was still president.

Tekken, it's not that hard to understand that Trump will still be a huge force to play in internal Republican politics going forward. Not only did he literally get his base to f**king storm the Capitol for him, but the few Representatives who dared to impeach him for doing that are literally now being censured by the day, with many of them already looking like they're DOA for re-nomination. Trumpism's not just going away in time for this upcoming cycle.

[brucejoel99]

Do the GOP rank-and-file know something I don’t?

Yeah, that Donald Trump is their God.

Anyway, the point I was trying to make was that a lot can happen in a year.

Evidently unsuccessfully.

[brucejoel99]

As much as I disagree with him on politics this yet another example of the "Brain Drain" of the Republican party.

"Brain drain" isn't quite to the point. More like there's a system/anti-system axis in the GOP along with the conservative-moderate one, and Shelby is in the Conservative System quadrant and his replacement is going to be in the Conservative Antisystem quadrant, a firebrand like Mo Brooks.

Shelby's also the classic "workhorse not showhorse" who quietly grinds away in the powerful Appropriations Committee, while he'll be replaced by a hack who spends hours a week on cable news saying inflammatory things, if his replacement is Mo Brooks like we think it will be.

Their voting records will be identical, probably. But the effect on the Senate GOP caucus of having another loudmouth firebrand is more significant than any actual ideological difference.

Good post, but I would also add that this difference in Southern Republicans is also largely generational.  Shelby was a contemporary of people like Thad Cochran and Lamar Alexander - Southern Republicans of the 1970s and 1980s who ran/governed as agents of conservative reform against established, dyanstic Dixiecrat patriarchies.  Shelby, even though first elected to the Senate as a Democrat himself*, is the last national GOP politician of this sort.  There's an added, literary wrinkle here too:  Shelby will (most likely) be the last "pre-Boomer" to represent a former Confederate State in the Senate.

*After Shelby retires, I believe the only Southern Democrat-to-Republican "party switchers" left in the Senate will be Cindy Hyde-Smith and John Kennedy, who made the jumps in 2010 and 2007, respectively.      

It appears possible that Kennedy retires as well. He was reportedly considering a run for Governor in 2019 and as JBE is term-limited anyways, he might just go for it.

Or JBE himself could run for Senate in 2022 and win (over Kennedy or another Republican), I suppose

JBE (along with any other Louisianan Democrat) has no realistic path, given trends in 2020 and how close his 2019 re-election bid was.

He's really to us what the likes of Baker & Hogan are to the GOP, in that - though a significantly higher number of Democrats are willing to cross-over at the state-level for such Republicans than there are Republicans who are willing to do the same for Democrats like JBE - it's clear that none of these candidates would be able to win their states at the federal level if they were to remain affiliated with their current parties.

[brucejoel99]

I wonder how many people there are who served 20+ years in the house before moving up to another job (Senate/Governor etc) like Aderholdt would be. There can’t be many.

Marsha Blackburn?

Only 16 years in the House under her belt (same as Bernie & Ron Wyden), but Schumer had 18, Ben Cardin had 20, & Ed Markey famously had 37.

[brucejoel99]

Do the GOP rank-and-file know something I don’t?

Yeah, that Donald Trump is their God.

He's your god too.

[brucejoel99]

Brooks considering:

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1358850693180842000

[brucejoel99]

From Shelby/Jones to Tuberville/Brooks in the span of just 2 years. Any worse delegational downgrades in recent history?

[brucejoel99]

Trump has endorsed Mo Brooks:

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1379766964504170497?s=21

Welp, congrats to Senator Brooks (F-AL)

Alabama is so f**ked.

[brucejoel99]

Merrill admits to a 3-year affair and says he won't run for anything next year.

White guys running for southern senate seats really need to keep it in their pants

This is a guy who has made numerous anti-gay comments, remarking that "homosexual activities" were harming the moral core of the country, and going so far as to blame Megan Rapinoe (lol). But according to his mistress, he loved being pegged. He also made numerous racist comments in her presence.

It's never not been all projection with this party.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/1399777720305864707?s=21

She was also Shelby's chief of staff and his chosen successor

There was a suggestion a few months ago that he’d stand down and have her be appointed in his place, is that still likely? That seems the best chance of stopping Brooks.

Because running in a GOP primary as an appointed incumbent worked out so well for the last guy that tried it in AL. I can almost hear the attack ads that imply a "corrupt bargain" already.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/1399777720305864707?s=21

She was also Shelby's chief of staff and his chosen successor

There was a suggestion a few months ago that he’d stand down and have her be appointed in his place, is that still likely? That seems the best chance of stopping Brooks.

Because running in a GOP primary as an appointed incumbent worked out so well for the last guy that tried it in AL. I can almost hear the attack ads that imply a "corrupt bargain" already.

The last appointed incumbent beat Mo Brooks despite all of that.

True enough, but Brooks probably gets the vast majority of the Moore vote this time thanks to his 4 years of Trump-love.

[brucejoel99]

At least Britt is more of a traditionally conservative Republican in the mold of Shelby, as opposed to a Trump-cultist like Brooks. It probably wouldn't hurt for a not-insignificant number of Democrats to vote in the Republican primary - since primaries are open in AL - so as to help a relatively saner person like Britt compared to her diehard Trumpist alternatives.

[brucejoel99]

Britt's a powerhouse, but will it even matter without the coveted endorsement from the base's God-Emperor?

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1412831076045701122

[brucejoel99]

Trump's literally endorsing the de-facto anti-Trump candidate just to avoid admitting that he was wrong about being wrong.