AL-SEN: Shelby retiring

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Doug Jones should have been nominated for AG, this stalling by Rs is due to blocking Garland for SCOTUS in 2016

[Alben Barkley]

Given Mo Brooks was beaten by such electoral titans as Luther Strange and Roy Moore last time he ran for the senate, I’m not convinced he’d win a primary. Though he’d obviously start as the favourite for name recognition if nothing else.

Nah, I think he could win now purely for having taken the last 4 years since his defeat to do nothing but further endear himself to "the God Emperor."

In any event, though, I don't think Brooks running is anywhere near assured, given that he chose his House seat over running against Jones last year. I think he might've only ran in 2017 because he didn't have to risk giving up his safe House seat & the perks thereof while doing so, so it was a "low-risk, high-reward" situation for him.

You think Trump’s influence in senate primaries will get bigger now that he’s out of office?

I think being a Trumpist is still the ticket to GOP downballot nominations for the time being.

Why do you think that?

I- ...

Because it's been made perfectly clear by literally everything happening in the GOP right now.

And how does that translate to primary election results?

Praise Trump, win primaries. Literally that simple. Greene. Boebert. Cawthorn. Tuberville.

All of those races happened when Trump was still president.

Are you being intentionally dense?
As the past month has made clear:
Most rank and file members of your party still regard Trump as a god practically
Ergo, they like candidates who sound like Trump and tie themselves to Trump
Ergo, they'll vote for candidates who meet that description
Ergo, non-incumbents who don't meet that description don't appeal to most members of your party
Ergo, non-trumpy candidates are likely to lose open primaries, whether you like it or not.

If trumpists weren't still dominant then we wouldn't see Nancy Mace doing an about face from being "done with Trump" to being back to the typical trumpist bullsh*t in two weeks. Or only ten house republicans voting to do something about that insane woman from north Georgia.

I understood that reference!

[Tekken_Guy]

Do the GOP rank-and-file know something I don’t?

Anyway, the point I was trying to make was that a lot can happen in a year.

[brucejoel99]

Do the GOP rank-and-file know something I don’t?

Yeah, that Donald Trump is their God.

Anyway, the point I was trying to make was that a lot can happen in a year.

Evidently unsuccessfully.

[Del Tachi]

As much as I disagree with him on politics this yet another example of the "Brain Drain" of the Republican party.

"Brain drain" isn't quite to the point. More like there's a system/anti-system axis in the GOP along with the conservative-moderate one, and Shelby is in the Conservative System quadrant and his replacement is going to be in the Conservative Antisystem quadrant, a firebrand like Mo Brooks.

Shelby's also the classic "workhorse not showhorse" who quietly grinds away in the powerful Appropriations Committee, while he'll be replaced by a hack who spends hours a week on cable news saying inflammatory things, if his replacement is Mo Brooks like we think it will be.

Their voting records will be identical, probably. But the effect on the Senate GOP caucus of having another loudmouth firebrand is more significant than any actual ideological difference.

Good post, but I would also add that this difference in Southern Republicans is also largely generational.  Shelby was a contemporary of people like Thad Cochran and Lamar Alexander - Southern Republicans of the 1970s and 1980s who ran/governed as agents of conservative reform against established, dyanstic Dixiecrat patriarchies.  Shelby, even though first elected to the Senate as a Democrat himself*, is the last national GOP politician of this sort.  There's an added, literary wrinkle here too:  Shelby will (most likely) be the last "pre-Boomer" to represent a former Confederate State in the Senate.

*After Shelby retires, I believe the only Southern Democrat-to-Republican "party switchers" left in the Senate will be Cindy Hyde-Smith and John Kennedy, who made the jumps in 2010 and 2007, respectively. 

 
     

[Astatine]

As much as I disagree with him on politics this yet another example of the "Brain Drain" of the Republican party.

"Brain drain" isn't quite to the point. More like there's a system/anti-system axis in the GOP along with the conservative-moderate one, and Shelby is in the Conservative System quadrant and his replacement is going to be in the Conservative Antisystem quadrant, a firebrand like Mo Brooks.

Shelby's also the classic "workhorse not showhorse" who quietly grinds away in the powerful Appropriations Committee, while he'll be replaced by a hack who spends hours a week on cable news saying inflammatory things, if his replacement is Mo Brooks like we think it will be.

Their voting records will be identical, probably. But the effect on the Senate GOP caucus of having another loudmouth firebrand is more significant than any actual ideological difference.

Good post, but I would also add that this difference in Southern Republicans is also largely generational.  Shelby was a contemporary of people like Thad Cochran and Lamar Alexander - Southern Republicans of the 1970s and 1980s who ran/governed as agents of conservative reform against established, dyanstic Dixiecrat patriarchies.  Shelby, even though first elected to the Senate as a Democrat himself*, is the last national GOP politician of this sort.  There's an added, literary wrinkle here too:  Shelby will (most likely) be the last "pre-Boomer" to represent a former Confederate State in the Senate.

*After Shelby retires, I believe the only Southern Democrat-to-Republican "party switchers" left in the Senate will be Cindy Hyde-Smith and John Kennedy, who made the jumps in 2010 and 2007, respectively.       

It appears possible that Kennedy retires as well. He was reportedly considering a run for Governor in 2019 and as JBE is term-limited anyways, he might just go for it.

[Del Tachi]

As much as I disagree with him on politics this yet another example of the "Brain Drain" of the Republican party.

"Brain drain" isn't quite to the point. More like there's a system/anti-system axis in the GOP along with the conservative-moderate one, and Shelby is in the Conservative System quadrant and his replacement is going to be in the Conservative Antisystem quadrant, a firebrand like Mo Brooks.

Shelby's also the classic "workhorse not showhorse" who quietly grinds away in the powerful Appropriations Committee, while he'll be replaced by a hack who spends hours a week on cable news saying inflammatory things, if his replacement is Mo Brooks like we think it will be.

Their voting records will be identical, probably. But the effect on the Senate GOP caucus of having another loudmouth firebrand is more significant than any actual ideological difference.

Good post, but I would also add that this difference in Southern Republicans is also largely generational.  Shelby was a contemporary of people like Thad Cochran and Lamar Alexander - Southern Republicans of the 1970s and 1980s who ran/governed as agents of conservative reform against established, dyanstic Dixiecrat patriarchies.  Shelby, even though first elected to the Senate as a Democrat himself*, is the last national GOP politician of this sort.  There's an added, literary wrinkle here too:  Shelby will (most likely) be the last "pre-Boomer" to represent a former Confederate State in the Senate.

*After Shelby retires, I believe the only Southern Democrat-to-Republican "party switchers" left in the Senate will be Cindy Hyde-Smith and John Kennedy, who made the jumps in 2010 and 2007, respectively.       

It appears possible that Kennedy retires as well. He was reportedly considering a run for Governor in 2019 and as JBE is term-limited anyways, he might just go for it.

Or JBE himself could run for Senate in 2022 and win (over Kennedy or another Republican), I suppose

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

As much as I disagree with him on politics this yet another example of the "Brain Drain" of the Republican party.

"Brain drain" isn't quite to the point. More like there's a system/anti-system axis in the GOP along with the conservative-moderate one, and Shelby is in the Conservative System quadrant and his replacement is going to be in the Conservative Antisystem quadrant, a firebrand like Mo Brooks.

Shelby's also the classic "workhorse not showhorse" who quietly grinds away in the powerful Appropriations Committee, while he'll be replaced by a hack who spends hours a week on cable news saying inflammatory things, if his replacement is Mo Brooks like we think it will be.

Their voting records will be identical, probably. But the effect on the Senate GOP caucus of having another loudmouth firebrand is more significant than any actual ideological difference.

Good post, but I would also add that this difference in Southern Republicans is also largely generational.  Shelby was a contemporary of people like Thad Cochran and Lamar Alexander - Southern Republicans of the 1970s and 1980s who ran/governed as agents of conservative reform against established, dyanstic Dixiecrat patriarchies.  Shelby, even though first elected to the Senate as a Democrat himself*, is the last national GOP politician of this sort.  There's an added, literary wrinkle here too:  Shelby will (most likely) be the last "pre-Boomer" to represent a former Confederate State in the Senate.

*After Shelby retires, I believe the only Southern Democrat-to-Republican "party switchers" left in the Senate will be Cindy Hyde-Smith and John Kennedy, who made the jumps in 2010 and 2007, respectively.      

It appears possible that Kennedy retires as well. He was reportedly considering a run for Governor in 2019 and as JBE is term-limited anyways, he might just go for it.

Or JBE himself could run for Senate in 2022 and win (over Kennedy or another Republican), I suppose

JBE (along with any other Louisianan Democrat) has no realistic path, given trends in 2020 and how close his 2019 re-election bid was.

[brucejoel99]

As much as I disagree with him on politics this yet another example of the "Brain Drain" of the Republican party.

"Brain drain" isn't quite to the point. More like there's a system/anti-system axis in the GOP along with the conservative-moderate one, and Shelby is in the Conservative System quadrant and his replacement is going to be in the Conservative Antisystem quadrant, a firebrand like Mo Brooks.

Shelby's also the classic "workhorse not showhorse" who quietly grinds away in the powerful Appropriations Committee, while he'll be replaced by a hack who spends hours a week on cable news saying inflammatory things, if his replacement is Mo Brooks like we think it will be.

Their voting records will be identical, probably. But the effect on the Senate GOP caucus of having another loudmouth firebrand is more significant than any actual ideological difference.

Good post, but I would also add that this difference in Southern Republicans is also largely generational.  Shelby was a contemporary of people like Thad Cochran and Lamar Alexander - Southern Republicans of the 1970s and 1980s who ran/governed as agents of conservative reform against established, dyanstic Dixiecrat patriarchies.  Shelby, even though first elected to the Senate as a Democrat himself*, is the last national GOP politician of this sort.  There's an added, literary wrinkle here too:  Shelby will (most likely) be the last "pre-Boomer" to represent a former Confederate State in the Senate.

*After Shelby retires, I believe the only Southern Democrat-to-Republican "party switchers" left in the Senate will be Cindy Hyde-Smith and John Kennedy, who made the jumps in 2010 and 2007, respectively.      

It appears possible that Kennedy retires as well. He was reportedly considering a run for Governor in 2019 and as JBE is term-limited anyways, he might just go for it.

Or JBE himself could run for Senate in 2022 and win (over Kennedy or another Republican), I suppose

JBE (along with any other Louisianan Democrat) has no realistic path, given trends in 2020 and how close his 2019 re-election bid was.

He's really to us what the likes of Baker & Hogan are to the GOP, in that - though a significantly higher number of Democrats are willing to cross-over at the state-level for such Republicans than there are Republicans who are willing to do the same for Democrats like JBE - it's clear that none of these candidates would be able to win their states at the federal level if they were to remain affiliated with their current parties.

[mikhaela]

I think Bradley Byrne might try again.

If not him, maybe Mo Brooks or Robert Aderholt?

[Coldstream]

I wonder how many people there are who served 20+ years in the house before moving up to another job (Senate/Governor etc) like Aderholdt would be. There can’t be many.

[mikhaela]

I wonder how many people there are who served 20+ years in the house before moving up to another job (Senate/Governor etc) like Aderholdt would be. There can’t be many.

Marsha Blackburn?

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, the dude is 86. Anyways, Titanium R.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I think Bradley Byrne might try again.

If not him, maybe Mo Brooks or Robert Aderholt?

While Byrne has become a Trump lackey, he’s probably still too intelligent and articulate to win a R primary here.

[Yellowhammer]

I think Bradley Byrne might try again.

If not him, maybe Mo Brooks or Robert Aderholt?

While Byrne has become a Trump lackey, he’s probably still intelligent and articulate to win a R primary here.

Lol true. We always end up with the worst R nominees.

[Young Conservative]

Katie Britt would be a great candidate. First Female Leader AL business council + former Shelby CoS.

[7,052,770]

Safe R, perhaps Likely R if Moore is the Republican nominee.

Unless Democrats get Nick Saban to run somehow, in which case Lean D.

[Tender Branson]

Grassley next plz.

[brucejoel99]

I wonder how many people there are who served 20+ years in the house before moving up to another job (Senate/Governor etc) like Aderholdt would be. There can’t be many.

Marsha Blackburn?

Only 16 years in the House under her belt (same as Bernie & Ron Wyden), but Schumer had 18, Ben Cardin had 20, & Ed Markey famously had 37.

[pppolitics]

Shelby retiring is a huge loss on the part of Republicans.

Clearly, this is now at least a likely D.

It would be a safe D if titan Doug Jone runs.

[Flyersfan232]

As much as I disagree with him on politics this yet another example of the "Brain Drain" of the Republican party.

"Brain drain" isn't quite to the point. More like there's a system/anti-system axis in the GOP along with the conservative-moderate one, and Shelby is in the Conservative System quadrant and his replacement is going to be in the Conservative Antisystem quadrant, a firebrand like Mo Brooks.

Shelby's also the classic "workhorse not showhorse" who quietly grinds away in the powerful Appropriations Committee, while he'll be replaced by a hack who spends hours a week on cable news saying inflammatory things, if his replacement is Mo Brooks like we think it will be.

Their voting records will be identical, probably. But the effect on the Senate GOP caucus of having another loudmouth firebrand is more significant than any actual ideological difference.

Good post, but I would also add that this difference in Southern Republicans is also largely generational.  Shelby was a contemporary of people like Thad Cochran and Lamar Alexander - Southern Republicans of the 1970s and 1980s who ran/governed as agents of conservative reform against established, dyanstic Dixiecrat patriarchies.  Shelby, even though first elected to the Senate as a Democrat himself*, is the last national GOP politician of this sort.  There's an added, literary wrinkle here too:  Shelby will (most likely) be the last "pre-Boomer" to represent a former Confederate State in the Senate.

*After Shelby retires, I believe the only Southern Democrat-to-Republican "party switchers" left in the Senate will be Cindy Hyde-Smith and John Kennedy, who made the jumps in 2010 and 2007, respectively.       

It appears possible that Kennedy retires as well. He was reportedly considering a run for Governor in 2019 and as JBE is term-limited anyways, he might just go for it.

Of the switchers who left in the house?

[Tiger08]

https://twitter.com/bresreports/status/1358895516449468418

[JMT]

Doug Jones not running:

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1358897804459008001?s=21

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shelby retiring is a huge loss on the part of Republicans.

Clearly, this is now at least a likely D.

It would be a safe D if titan Doug Jone runs.

aL is a Lean R state

[JMT]

Jeff Sessions not running:

https://1010wcsi.com/fox-politics/sessions-not-interested-in-another-alabama-senate-run-after-shelby-retirement/