Monthly “Rate” House & Senate

[MillennialModerate]

I’m sure there will be a million threads like this. Maybe just have one that people update how they feel every month (or every week once we get to August ‘22

Rate the House and Senate:


Senate: Tilt R (without statehood, Lean D with it)
•NH & (1 of GA/NV/AZ) flip to GOP • PA flip to DEM•

House: Likely R

[MT Treasurer]

Senate: Lean R without D.C. statehood, Tossup with D.C. statehood (+3 GOP)

House: Likely R (~+15-20 GOP)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Senate

Tilt D WI, PA flip D and GA flips R due to Runoff. Lol Hassan is gonna win and Rob Johnson only won by 4 pts, Atlas thinks John'son is unbeatable, I was having the same conversation with Tilts Dem user

Johnson 50/46 Feingold Biden flipped WOW COUNTIES
Toomey 50/48 McGinty Biden flipped Erie, PA
Warnock won by 85K those are gonna be the battleground states

House
Tossup can we wait for Redistricting maps before House is assumed R

[Orser67]

Senate Lean R (closer to tossup than likely)
House Lean R (really on the border of lean and likely)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Both lean R.

[Meatball Ron]

House: Likely R (even if this is an atypical midterm / a blue-leaning environment, I just really struggle to see how this doesn't flip given how narrow the margin is and redistricting alone would be enough to flip it)

Senate: Tilt D (simply on the basis that no current incumbent is an underdog - if we think NH and PA are both roughly coin flips, the median outcome still feels like a 50/50 Senate, but this could certainly become worse for Dems as the national environment changes or if GOP scores good candidates in GA/AZ/NV; could also get better for Dems is Kelli Ward types emerge as the favorites in all of those states)

[It’s so Joever]

If held today:
House: Lean R
Senate: Lean D

[AGA]

House: Lean R
Senate: Tilt R without DC, Tilt D with it

[100% pro-life no matter what]

House: Likely R
Senate: Strong Lean R

[hyouzel the predictor]

House: Tossup (Hot take, it's way too far away to see what type of national environment we are gonna have. Typical logic goes out the window in the age of hyper polarization)

Senate: Tilt D (Another hot take, Kelly and Warnock are Lean D because of the craziness of their state parties. If AZGOP nominates a non crazy they are favored, same with GAGOP. NH won't ticket split for Sununu, and the Reid machine will be in full swing for CCM. Now compare that to 2 GOP open seats in 2020 blue states. Plus if DC gets added as a state (which btw doesn't need to happen this year) It's essentially likely D because the only candidate I could see losing is maybe Warnock or CCM.)

[Xing]

House: Likely R (Republicans end up with about 230 seats)
Senate: Lean R (Republicans gain AZ and NH for a 52-48 majority, if I had to say)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

House: Likely R
Senate: Strong Lean R

Have you seen Biden approvals it's 57%


HOUSE IS TOSSUP DEPENDS ON Redistricting but I can see a narrow House majority


SENATE TILTS D WI ROB JOHNSON WON BY ONLY 4 PTS HE ISNT UNBEATABLE AND PA LEANS D WITH Fetterman

GA ISNT SAFE D ITS A RUNOFF STATE AND WARNOCK HAS TO WIN 50 TO AVOID A RUNOFF

Kemp and Collins are slightly favs against Abrams, WARNOCK CAN LOSE

NC AND OH will depend if the Economy rebounded in 2022/ not 2021

[ProgressiveModerate]

House: Likely R (even if this is an atypical midterm / a blue-leaning environment, I just really struggle to see how this doesn't flip given how narrow the margin is and redistricting alone would be enough to flip it)

Senate: Tilt D (simply on the basis that no current incumbent is an underdog - if we think NH and PA are both roughly coin flips, the median outcome still feels like a 50/50 Senate, but this could certainly become worse for Dems as the national environment changes or if GOP scores good candidates in GA/AZ/NV; could also get better for Dems is Kelli Ward types emerge as the favorites in all of those states)

That's literally not true though, infact, unless Republicans try cracking Indianapolis or decide to do some TX really dummymander, there are more ways for Democrats to net more relatively safe seats through redistricting when you do the math. I don't get why everyone is defaulting to this when it's simply not true.

I can give you a whole list of seats Democrats are likely to gain post re-districting:

-If Alabama loses a seat, a Birmingham based seat would likely be added, and even if it weren't that's still a net loss for R because they have to cut one of their own seats
-In Arizona, AZ-1 and/or AZ-2 or their equivalents are likely to get safer
-In Cali, there are several R districts that are at risk
-Colorado will likely end up being 5-3
-DC could add a seat for Ds if admitted, same with PR
-In Illinois, IL-14 will likely be shored up and an R district is likely to be cut
-In MD, Dems could go 8-0
-In MN, an R district will likely be cut if MN loses a seat
-In NV, 3 & 4 will likely be shored up
-In NH, we're either getting 2 swing districts or 1 safe D v 1 safe R district
-In NY, NY-2, NY-11, NY-24, NY-18, NY-19 all have potential to get bluer while one of the R districts is cut
-Oregon is likely to gain a seat and we may very well end up with a 5-1 map
-In Texas, Republicans will have to cede 7 & 32 to Ds and 23 pretty much has to get bluer to comply with VRA. Even after that it would be difficult to avoiding a dummymander without ceding something else
-In VA, population changes and such should make VA-2 and VA-7 safer D, and VA-1 may get bluer too
-WA-8 will probably be shored up
-West Virginia is likely to lose a seat

Republicans certainly have their own list of things they can do too, but there are quite a few things that could and probably will happen that will put Democrats in a better standing too. Overall, I would say it more or less cancels out and would just make a lot of seats safer in either direction than they currently are, meaning Republicans will have fewer targets.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

House Lean R Senate Lean D

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

House: Lean R
Senate: Tilt R (but Tilt D with DC statehood)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

House: Lean R
Senate: Tilt R (but Tilt D with DC statehood)

D's are targeting Ron Johnson seat and Toomey seat whom only won by 3.5% and Gov Evers and soon to be Gov Shapiro are gonna help us win Senate seats.
House pends on Redistricting

[NewYorkExpress]

House: Safe R

Senate: Likely R without D.C, Tilt R with D.C.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate isn't Lean R with WI, PA, GA as vulnerable seats

[here2view]

House: Likely R

Senate: Tilt D (whoever wins the Senate wins 2 out of Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

House: Likely R

Senate: Tilt D (whoever wins the Senate wins 2 out of Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania)

D's are gonna win WI too, with Evers as our Gov candidate and GA is a pure Tossups with a Runoff not safe D

[AndyHogan14]

If the election were held today, it would be safe D for both the House and Senate. Democrats would gain WI, PA, and NC in the Senate (losing none) and would get back up to 230+ in the House. But, unfortunately, the election is going to be held in November 2022.

My prediction for 2022 is lean R for the House (220-225 seats for the Republicans) and lean D for the Senate (49-52 seats for the Democrats).

[GALeftist]

Senate: Tilt R without DC statehood, Tilt D with

House: Can't really say without seeing redistricting but my guess is Lean R

[politicallefty]

It's very early.

House: Toss-up to Lean R.
Senate: Toss-up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't know what the new normal Economy looks like, we need to be patient and wait til next yr and rate these ratings again

The election is Oct 2022 not this yr

[Skill and Chance]

House: Likely R

Senate: Tilt D (whoever wins the Senate wins 2 out of Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania)

I think this is right.  The House is basically gone, but Democrats benefit from the Senate map this time so there is reverse 2018 potential.