Texas County Results 2020 Presidential

[jimrtex]

Edit: I found a bug in my maps due to truncating percentage results prematurely. I am using 20 buckets, each 5% wide, but was truncating precinct results to the nearest 1%. Results such as 65.25% were rounded to 65% and shifted into a more Biden-leaning (less blue or more red color). I discovered this when I found a precinct in Alamo Heights that had a bare Trump majority was a palest of pink, rather than the most pastel of blues.

To correct this problem I calculated the percentages to two decimal places. This has the effect of shifting about 10% of precincts one step towards blue. The second map below is the corrected version. I can't really see much of an overall effect, but can see individual precincts that are adjusted. There were 10 precincts that flipped. These are widely scattered, with the largest cluster in Spring.

The first map below is the Dominion map. The second is corrected.

Harris County. Two-way Trump-Biden vote. Cross-hatched precincts have 0 or less than 25 votes. Smaller precincts may have anomalous results or extreme vote share (6:1 is 86%)

[jimrtex]

Dallas County

[Neptunium]

How about not show the name of county just post map and let us guess the name?

Btw, could I ask where you get those data from?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Dallas County

Were the Park Cities the only municipalities in Dallas County to vote for Trump?

[jimrtex]

Tarrant County

[jimrtex]

How about not show the name of county just post map and let us guess the name?

Btw, could I ask where you get those data from?

Texas statute requires each county to send their precinct results to the SOS. The results for the 2020 election are here:

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/17RamU8sOERU8jM22X-rchIOeClbtZTOz

Each county uses a unique format or structure.

Not all counties have uploaded their data. This message gives the current status, as well as links to county election web sites where precinct data is available for those that have precinct data on their web site.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=412981.msg7905704#msg7905704

Also there is discussion throughout that thread.

The shapefiles are here In the "VTD" file.

https://data.capitol.texas.gov/organization/tlc

The Legislative Council ("Lege Council") is the service/research arm of the legislature. Because Texas has been in redistricting litigation continuously for the past 60 years, they have a lot of experience and data. They may also benefit from having interns from UT to do the grunt work.

The Lege Council has precinct-level election results for past elections, and eventually, but probably sooner will have the 2020 elections result.

The VTD file above is based on 2010 Census Geography, but with current (or 2018)  precincts. I expect that they will update this to the 2020 Census Geography.

realisticidealist

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=2947

Has a large collection of precinct data. See this article:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=412981.msg7911761#msg7911761

I was trying to see if I could actually tie the data to locations, and started with the largest counties. I liked the results so I continued.

I don't know if you know this, but if you right click on an image in your browser, and "view image" you will get a larger image.

[jimrtex]

Dallas County

Were the Park Cities the only municipalities in Dallas County to vote for Trump?

Fortunately for you, Dallas codes their precincts by city.

Highland Park 65%
Sunnyvale 64%
University Park 63%
Sachse 58%
Combine 58% (less than whole precinct)
Rowlett 52%
Coppell 49.2% (close)
Seagoville 49.0% (but probably less because of precincts).

I checked Richardson, Garland, Mesquite, and Carrollton but they are much closer to 40% than 50%.

The blue area continues north of University Park though lessened strength. The darkest blue precinct is the northern edge of University Park (south of Northwest Highway) at 72%. Three precinct south of that are north of Lovers Lane at 68%, 68%, and 66%). University Park would be more blue than Highland Park but for SMU, which is the 49% Trump precinct in the southeast part of the city.

BTW, that blue spot WSW from downtown is Dallas Baptist University which is fairly isolated. Most of the precinct is a Veterans Cemetery or a huge auto auction location with bazillions of parked cars.

[jimrtex]

This is an updated version of the Harris County map based on the 2020 Census Shapefiles. I've also added some statistical information.



Biden carried the county 56.7% to 43.3%.

The median voter lived in a 60.8% Biden precinct.

33.0% of votes were cast in precincts that were 65% or more for Biden, 13.9% of votes were cast in precincts that were 65% or more for Trump. 53.1% were cast in at least modestly competitive areas.

60.9% of votes were cast in majority Biden precincts, 39.1% in majority Trump precincts.

An average Trump voter had a 51.1% probability of meeting another Trump voter as he exited the polling place (assuming no differential in voting times or manner of voting).

An average Biden voter had a 62.7% probability of meeting another Biden voter as he exited his polling place.

The most extreme Trump precinct was 90.2% Trump (74:8) in Crosby in far-eastern Harris. It is adjacent to an 84.8% Biden (1210:217) precinct in Crosby. That is a 75% differential between the two.

The most extreme Biden precinct was 98.1% Biden (405:8) in Crestmont Park in extreme southern Houston (Orem, Almeda Genoa, MLK).

The most middling precinct as 50.0% Trump (1095:1095) in Atascocita in northeast Harris County (south of Kingwood, east of Humble).

This is a distribution of voters by Trump %.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

wtf happened here

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

wtf happened here

My best guess? An increase in minority turnout, as AA sprawl doesn't extend that far south.

[It’s so Joever]

Corsicana is where all the illegals from the 2018 caravans are now /s

[Real Texan Politics]

Exurban shift? Corsicana is only about 45 minutes south of Dallas.

To be fair Navarro County (where Corsicana is located) voted 72.2-26.7 for Trump.

[mileslunn]

Curious if anyone is able to calculate results for following cities.

Laredo
Brownsville
Amarillo
Lubbock
Abilene
Wichita Falls
Midland
Odessa
Waco
College Station
Bryan
Tyler
Texarkana
Port Arthur
Beaumont
Galveston
Corpus Christi

Be interested to see how many Biden won.  I know he won Brownsville and Laredo but still interested in the numbers.  Approximate is fine if boundaries don't perfectly line up.

[Real Texan Politics]

Curious if anyone is able to calculate results for following cities.

Laredo
Brownsville
Amarillo
Lubbock
Abilene
Wichita Falls
Midland
Odessa
Waco
College Station
Bryan
Tyler
Texarkana
Port Arthur
Beaumont
Galveston
Corpus Christi

Be interested to see how many Biden won.  I know he won Brownsville and Laredo but still interested in the numbers.  Approximate is fine if boundaries don't perfectly line up.

I think Lubbock and Amarillo are definite Trump wins. Maybe Tyler, Wichita Falls and Abilene as well. Pretty sure I saw Trump won Bryan and College Station narrowly. Midland/Odessa I'm not so sure about, but probably Trump. Port Arthur may be a slim Trump win because of the oil stuff, but I could be wrong. Everything else is a Biden win.

[mileslunn]

Curious if anyone is able to calculate results for following cities.

Laredo
Brownsville
Amarillo
Lubbock
Abilene
Wichita Falls
Midland
Odessa
Waco
College Station
Bryan
Tyler
Texarkana
Port Arthur
Beaumont
Galveston
Corpus Christi

Be interested to see how many Biden won.  I know he won Brownsville and Laredo but still interested in the numbers.  Approximate is fine if boundaries don't perfectly line up.

I think Lubbock and Amarillo are definite Trump wins. Maybe Tyler, Wichita Falls and Abilene as well. Pretty sure I saw Trump won Bryan and College Station narrowly. Midland/Odessa I'm not so sure about, but probably Trump. Port Arthur may be a slim Trump win because of the oil stuff, but I could be wrong. Everything else is a Biden win.

Anyone have the percentages, rounded off is fine.

[Real Texan Politics]

Curious if anyone is able to calculate results for following cities.

Laredo
Brownsville
Amarillo
Lubbock
Abilene
Wichita Falls
Midland
Odessa
Waco
College Station
Bryan
Tyler
Texarkana
Port Arthur
Beaumont
Galveston
Corpus Christi

Be interested to see how many Biden won.  I know he won Brownsville and Laredo but still interested in the numbers.  Approximate is fine if boundaries don't perfectly line up.

I think Lubbock and Amarillo are definite Trump wins. Maybe Tyler, Wichita Falls and Abilene as well. Pretty sure I saw Trump won Bryan and College Station narrowly. Midland/Odessa I'm not so sure about, but probably Trump. Port Arthur may be a slim Trump win because of the oil stuff, but I could be wrong. Everything else is a Biden win.

Anyone have the percentages, rounded off is fine.

It's difficult to find the results for the cities themselves. I just based my guesses off the counties themselves.

Also made a mistake and forgot to include Texarkana as a possible Trump win, and that probably goes for both the Texas and Arkansas sides.

[Mr. Smith]

Curious if anyone is able to calculate results for following cities.

Laredo
Brownsville
Amarillo
Lubbock
Abilene
Wichita Falls
Midland
Odessa
Waco
College Station
Bryan
Tyler
Texarkana
Port Arthur
Beaumont
Galveston
Corpus Christi

Be interested to see how many Biden won.  I know he won Brownsville and Laredo but still interested in the numbers.  Approximate is fine if boundaries don't perfectly line up.

I think Lubbock and Amarillo are definite Trump wins. Maybe Tyler, Wichita Falls and Abilene as well. Pretty sure I saw Trump won Bryan and College Station narrowly. Midland/Odessa I'm not so sure about, but probably Trump. Port Arthur may be a slim Trump win because of the oil stuff, but I could be wrong. Everything else is a Biden win.

Brazos is a very sparse county outside of the A&M bubble. If Trump won Bryan and College Station narrowly, he'd win the county narrowly...and he won by double digits. Traditionally, this would point to a larger win in College Station, but the swing with the Hispanic vote might make it closer in Bryan.

[jimrtex]

Curious if anyone is able to calculate results for following cities.

Laredo
Brownsville
Amarillo
Lubbock
Abilene
Wichita Falls
Midland
Odessa
Waco
College Station
Bryan
Tyler
Texarkana
Port Arthur
Beaumont
Galveston
Corpus Christi

Be interested to see how many Biden won.  I know he won Brownsville and Laredo but still interested in the numbers.  Approximate is fine if boundaries don't perfectly line up.

Do you have a list of election precincts for each of these?

[jimrtex]

wtf happened here

My best guess? An increase in minority turnout, as AA sprawl doesn't extend that far south.

The 2016 results may have been messed up.

In 2010, 0201, the southeast precinct was 81% Black. It quite unlikely it would have been 50:50 in 2016.
In 2010, 0200, the northeast precinct was 87% Black,
In 2010, 0202, the southwest precinct was 68% Hispanic

There was very little over between blacks and Hispanics. This would suggest the east side of town is Black, and historically the south side of town was lower income white, who are being displaced by Hispanics. Incidentally there also a lot of fruitcakes in Corsicana.

Problem is that 2010 precincts don't fully match 2020 precincts. They sort of do.

Does the NYT project the 2016 results on to a 2020 map?

Incidentally, those three precincts are the only three Biden precincts in the county.