Texas 2022 megathread

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm just praying Alex Jones will run as a primary challenge to Abbott. A man can dream...

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Matthew McConaughey doesn't seem interested in running as a Democrat, let alone endorsing Beto or trying to build up the Democratic party in Texas. He has really held the line on being a moderate, and frankly seems more inclined toward a lot of conservative positions.

He's been a major Hollywood actor since 1996, and has never come out as a Democrat or liberal despite it being just about the easiest industry to do that in. That should tell you something.

Like I predicted earlier, if he runs it'll be as an independent.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Prepare for a new description for him on wikipedia... "Beto O'Rourke - perennial candidate, former Representative".

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Ugh, what's the short version why Abbott receives multiple stiff challenges? It's not that the mode is suspicious of being not far-right enough.

He's viewed by many in Texas (not enough to lose a primary) as not anti-lockdown enough and not far-right enough.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

With another major winter storm on the horizon, though will very likely NOT be as bad as last year's, this will provide a major test for Abbott's leadership.

While power stuff may have improved since last year, it's not guaranteed that this winter storm will be without its power issues, which could cause another slip in the polls for Abbott, possibly even some to the point where he's losing to Beto, though I don't expect him to lose this election no matter how bad the power situation gets. He better be lucky this is a red wave year.

Plus I'll give credit to the Texas dems that they actually have something useful to run on in the power grid failures instead of just all "mUh democracy" and "mUh Blormph" and "mUh 1/6."

Could this help Huffines/West?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

So do you guys think Abbott will escape a runoff?
I used to think he would, but potentially low turnout could force him into one.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

-FEB 15 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 16

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353,507 Texans have voted so far, 2.06% of registered Texan voters.

134,564 (38.07%) voted in the Democratic Primary
218,943 (61.93%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Democrats: Galveston, Uvalde
To Republicans: Hays, Nueces, Jefferson

That is already a sign for much larger turnout in the Republican primary than 2018. Already a seventh of the amount of voters in the 2018 Republican party have voted in this primary.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trafalgar polls just came out showing Abbott at 62% in the primary. I very highly doubt this will end in a runoff barring some huge unforeseen turnout differences.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Late to this thread so apologies if I’m repeating or missing something obvious, but hasn’t Paxton really underperformed? I’d kind of assumed he’d win a majority against “RINO SWAMP BUSH” etc. Yet Bush has taken him to a run off.

Bush didn't do that well, he got just a bit more than Gohmert and Guzman. The anti-Paxton vote was just split so he eked out 2nd place.
And Paxton didn't really underperform, overall with all these Mar 1 elections the results aligned up pretty well with polling.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Party with the lead for gubernatorial primaries by county - FINAL NUMBERS

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2,995,580 Texans voted in these primaries, 17.43% of registered Texan voters.

1,057,637 (35.31%) voted in the Democratic Primary
1,937,943 (64.69%) voted in the Republican Primary


Primary voting swing from 2018 gubernatorial primaries to 2022 gubernatorial primaries

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Turnout went up by 1.41% in the Democratic primaries and 25.11% up in the Republican primaries, as the total number of voters increased from 2.59 Million to 3.00 Million. In the 2018 primaries, the Republican primaries took up 59.8% of voters, which went up to 64.7% in 2022.


Blue for Democrats
Red for Republicans

RGV going R is a trend, not something specific to Trump, lockdowns or "disinformation" in 2020. It's here to stay.