Texas 2022 megathread

[Frenchrepublican]

May regret this later on but I moved my rating down from likely R to lean R due to Abbott's vulnerability after the power crisis and winter storm, and that's especially with Beto as the nominee (which he may as well be the presumptive nominee at this point). Yes the gun comments may still haunt Beto in attack ads, but they may not do as much damage as others may claim. My prediction goes from R+9 down to R+4-5. As said previously though, there's a high chance I could be underestimating Abbott and he ends up winning by like 7 or 8.

By comparison, 2014 was Abbott +20, and 2018 was Abbott +12 (and that was even with Beto on the same ballot for senate). Though that may be a bad comparison since I imagine those were separate wave years.

Not sure why you are so pessimistic about Greg Abbott and about the TX GOP in general, especially after what happened to TX dems last year.

Abbott approval rate stayed the same despite the power crisis, at least according to the Texas Tribune poll, so his ''vulnerability'' seems to be more a personal opinion than a data based fact.
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/26/joe-biden-texas-coronavirus-poll/

As for O'Rourke, you believe that his positions on guns are not going to hurt him, okay, but it is also a personal opinion, if we look at the few recent polls we have, his favourability rate in TX is down by double digits, he is even less popular than Biden. Also it is not just his comments about guns which are out of touch with Texans, you have also his comments about taxing churches. If democrats want to lose even more ground in South Texas they should go this path.

Abbott is likely going to win reelection by a low to middle double digits margin.

[Frenchrepublican]

May regret this later on but I moved my rating down from likely R to lean R due to Abbott's vulnerability after the power crisis and winter storm, and that's especially with Beto as the nominee (which he may as well be the presumptive nominee at this point). Yes the gun comments may still haunt Beto in attack ads, but they may not do as much damage as others may claim. My prediction goes from R+9 down to R+4-5. As said previously though, there's a high chance I could be underestimating Abbott and he ends up winning by like 7 or 8.

By comparison, 2014 was Abbott +20, and 2018 was Abbott +12 (and that was even with Beto on the same ballot for senate). Though that may be a bad comparison since I imagine those were separate wave years.

Not sure why you are so pessimistic about Greg Abbott and about the TX GOP in general, especially after what happened to TX dems last year.

Abbott approval rate stayed the same despite the power crisis, at least according to the Texas Tribune poll, so his ''vulnerability'' seems to be more a personal opinion than a data based fact.
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/26/joe-biden-texas-coronavirus-poll/

As for O'Rourke, you believe that his positions on guns are not going to hurt him, okay, but it is also a personal opinion, if we look at the few recent polls we have, his favourability rate in TX is down by double digits, he is even less popular than Biden. Also it is not just his comments about guns which are out of touch with Texans, you have also his comments about taxing churches. If democrats want to lose even more ground in South Texas they should go this path.

Abbott is likely going to win reelection by a low to middle double digits margin.

Yea you’re probably right for the most part. I don’t see Abbott underperforming Trump’s TX numbers, but I do see Abbott underperforming his own 2018 numbers, especially if Beto’s his opponent and with everything that has happened plus him possibly removing the mask mandate for Texas that may or may not cost him a bit of support.

I’d say it’s likely R, but I’d still put it closer to lean than safe. Maybe like Abbott +7 or 8. 7.5 could be a compromise.

2018 was a D+8 year, keep that in mind when you do your predictions, 2022 is unlikely to be that favourable to democrats, to put it mildly . The difference in terms of climate will likely help Abbott to keep his 2022 winning margin close to his 2018 numbers. Also it is not like if TX had really trended left between 2018 and 2020.

[Frenchrepublican]

It seems that the snow storm had no impact on Abbott's approval.

[Frenchrepublican]

Post snow storm poll :

https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscience/files/dmn-uttyler-march-2020rv.pdf

Abbott approval : 52/31 (+21)

Biden approval : 47/40 (+7)

Cornyn favourability 40/26 (+14)
Cruz favourability : 42/45 (-3)
Trump favourability 43/47 (-4)
O'Rourke favaourability 37/42 (-5)

[Frenchrepublican]

Hate to do 3 posts in a row, but we've got some breaking news:

https://twitter.com/dallasnews/status/1378089356292919305?s=20

I guess he has read the polls and he knows that with a +15/20 approval rate Abbott is not vulnerable

[Frenchrepublican]

Hate to do 3 posts in a row, but we've got some breaking news:

https://twitter.com/dallasnews/status/1378089356292919305?s=20

I guess he has read the polls and he knows that with a +15/20 approval rate Abbott is not vulnerable

Abbott could still be, but without Beto on the ballot, that may spell trouble for democrats.

I wonder if McConaughey even tries running anymore? Starting to think it may have just been a publicity stunt and he won't run at all.

LOL - That's ridiculous, if Abbott is losing republicans are losing +40 seats in the House, the PA/WI/NC/FL/IA/OH Senate seats and at least a half dozen of governor mansions.