Texas 2022 megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Beto may have a much better shot at challenging Cruz again in 2024 instead of running 4 gov. Abbott is a very bad gov, but there is almost no chance the dude loses reelection in 2022. Not even if this was a Trump midterm again.

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe R remains Safe R.

[Sir Mohamed]

Beto bungled anx chance to make this kind of competitive by running 4 prez as a very liberal candidate. Race is Likely R at best.

[Sir Mohamed]

Beto bungled any chance to make this kind of competitive by running 4 prez as a very liberal candidate. Race is Likely R at best.

I don't think a lot of people remember that by now. Like they remember he did it, but not the substance. Plus, I can see him being a turnout machine again for liberals.

If he had gone away since then and done nothing, then he'd be remembered for that, but he's been very active in TX since early 2020 in voter registration efforts.

The GOP just needs to run clips from the 2019 Dem debate with Beto saying "hell yes, we take your AK-15s away". As prez candidate, he clearly run a national campaign for the Democratic nomination, which is vastly different from running in a GE in a red state.

Steve Bullock find of suffered from the same fate. Now, I don't believe he would have won the senate race last year, but the Steve Bullock of 2016 was for sure a better candidate in MT than the Steve Bullock of 2020.

[Sir Mohamed]

I don't think Beto's presidential campaign hurts him, per se, because...does anyone really remember anything about his presidential campaign? I certainly don't. Basically Generic D at this point.

Well, Abbott and the GOP will make sure that clips of "hell yes, we take your AK-15" run all over the place, so people will quickly be reminded again. Fear has always been a powerful driver in election campaigns, and right-wingers are experts on how run with fear tactitcs.

The main obstacle for O'Rourke will for sure be that he'll run in an unfavorable environment in a state that is Lean or Likely R abseit some D-trend over the last 10 years. This race would even be an uphill battle in a 2nd Trump midterm. O'Rourke is going to lose by at least 7-8 pts, if not 10-12 pts.

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe R -> Safe R.

This would even be an uphill battle in an R-midterms, but with these partisan winds we're likely going to see in 2022, Beto isn't standing a chance. Yup, state level races are less nationalized, though TX hasn't really departed from its partisan lean in such elections. This is different in red states like MT or KY (or MA, VT vise versa).

[Sir Mohamed]

TX-GOV: Likely R
TX-LT GOV: Lean R
TX-AG: Lean R

Paxton and Patrick are likely to likely to lose than Abbott...

Nah, all of these races are Safe R.

TX isn't there yet for a flip, and 2022 isn't going to be a nice environment for Dems.

[Sir Mohamed]

We get Beto vs. Abbott. This is the worst of both world, but hey, that's American politics.

Doesn't matter. It's Safe R anway.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, what's the short version why Abbott receives multiple stiff challenges? It's not that the mode is suspicious of being not far-right enough.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, what's the short version why Abbott receives multiple stiff challenges? It's not that the mode is suspicious of being not far-right enough.

He's viewed by many in Texas (not enough to lose a primary) as not anti-lockdown enough and not far-right enough.

LOL, imagine Greg Abbott being not far right enough.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, Gohmert threw away his House seat for nothing.

[Sir Mohamed]

Sorry to tell Rs if FL is competitive and it is, TX is competitive too, I know a sweep is a stretch but if you have TX you have FL, something is going on, there are enough Latinos on both states that definitely want PR Statehood

Both won't be in single digits and are Safe R. Unfortunately.

[Sir Mohamed]

Also I want to give the Beto campaign some respect. Even though at the end of the day Abbott is prolly winning, he's campaigned seriously and actually gone to quite a few communities that generally are extremely lopsided towards Rs.

Yup, though he's not seen as strong as 2018 after his embarrassing WH bid in 2019/20. Maybe he should have run for senate in 2020 and then either win an upset or just quit running for office in the immediate future.