Texas 2022 megathread

[_.]

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 15

Image Link

238,065 Texans have voted so far, 1.39% of registered Texan voters.

93,553 (39.30%) voted in the Democratic Primary
144,512 (60.70%) voted in the Republican Primary

[Roll Roons]

Holy Harris County!

Wonder what the deal is with those two random rural counties where Democrats are leading.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

So do you guys think Abbott will escape a runoff?
I used to think he would, but potentially low turnout could force him into one.

[_.]

Holy Harris County!

At the same time in the 2020 cycle of early voting, Harris County Republicans initially started out with a significant lead as well, which Democrats eventually cut as early voting progressed. In fact, the Harris County vote share compared to the same day of voting two years ago is extremely similar:

February 17, 2020: 10,541 Democrats; 11,678 Republicans - (52.56% R, 47.44% D)
February 15, 2022: 11,540 Democrats; 12,834 Republicans - (52.65% R, 47.35% D)

An extreme similar pattern is playing out in neighboring Fort Bend County:

February 17, 2020: 1,160 Democrats; 1,216 Republicans - (51.18% R, 48.82% D)
February 15, 2022: 2,917 Democrats; 3,233 Republicans - (52.57% R, 47.43% D)

Statewide, Republicans are doing much better this cycle, particularly in Tarrant and Collin Counties. In fact, the Democrats had the lead statewide at this time two years ago, but with a consistently much smaller turnout back then. Voting in-person was not available for early voting for the first few days of the 2020 primaries.

Harris and Fort Bend Counties break the statewide trend quite spectacularly.

Wonder what the deal is with those two random rural counties where Democrats are leading.

Bosque County - Population 18,235 (164 voters in the Republican primary, 20 voters in the Democratic primary, it's a slip of the hand, the map has been corrected)

Cottle County - Population 1,380 (19 voters in the Democratic primary, 12 voters in the Republican primary, this actually seems like a statistical anomaly, but over the next few days, more Republicans will start to vote no doubt)

[Death of a Salesman]

Holy Harris County!

At the same time in the 2020 cycle of early voting, Harris County Republicans initially started out with a significant lead as well, which Democrats eventually cut as early voting progressed. In fact, the Harris County vote share compared to the same day of voting two years ago is extremely similar:

February 17, 2020: 10,541 Democrats; 11,678 Republicans - (52.56% R, 47.44% D)
February 15, 2022: 11,540 Democrats; 12,834 Republicans - (52.65% R, 47.35% D)

An extreme similar pattern is playing out in neighboring Fort Bend County:

February 17, 2020: 1,160 Democrats; 1,216 Republicans - (51.18% R, 48.82% D)
February 15, 2022: 2,917 Democrats; 3,233 Republicans - (52.57% R, 47.43% D)

Statewide, Republicans are doing much better this cycle, particularly in Tarrant and Collin Counties. In fact, the Democrats had the lead statewide at this time two years ago, but with a consistently much smaller turnout back then. Voting in-person was not available for early voting for the first few days of the 2020 primaries.

Harris and Fort Bend Counties break the statewide trend quite spectacularly.

Wonder what the deal is with those two random rural counties where Democrats are leading.

Bosque County - Population 18,235 (164 voters in the Republican primary, 20 voters in the Democratic primary, it's a slip of the hand, the map has been corrected)

Cottle County - Population 1,380 (19 voters in the Democratic primary, 12 voters in the Republican primary, this actually seems like a statistical anomaly, but over the next few days, more Republicans will start to vote no doubt)

Cottle County is ancestrally Democratic. In 2006, 324 voters voted in the D primary, just 2 in the GOP primary. In 2010, it was 356-0 (no GOP primary held in the county). Most voters vote in the GOP primary now, but there's probably some local race that's still decided in the Democratic primary that is causing a lot of voters to pick Democratic ballots.

[_.]

Holy Harris County!

At the same time in the 2020 cycle of early voting, Harris County Republicans initially started out with a significant lead as well, which Democrats eventually cut as early voting progressed. In fact, the Harris County vote share compared to the same day of voting two years ago is extremely similar:

February 17, 2020: 10,541 Democrats; 11,678 Republicans - (52.56% R, 47.44% D)
February 15, 2022: 11,540 Democrats; 12,834 Republicans - (52.65% R, 47.35% D)

An extreme similar pattern is playing out in neighboring Fort Bend County:

February 17, 2020: 1,160 Democrats; 1,216 Republicans - (51.18% R, 48.82% D)
February 15, 2022: 2,917 Democrats; 3,233 Republicans - (52.57% R, 47.43% D)

Statewide, Republicans are doing much better this cycle, particularly in Tarrant and Collin Counties. In fact, the Democrats had the lead statewide at this time two years ago, but with a consistently much smaller turnout back then. Voting in-person was not available for early voting for the first few days of the 2020 primaries.

Harris and Fort Bend Counties break the statewide trend quite spectacularly.

Wonder what the deal is with those two random rural counties where Democrats are leading.

Bosque County - Population 18,235 (164 voters in the Republican primary, 20 voters in the Democratic primary, it's a slip of the hand, the map has been corrected)

Cottle County - Population 1,380 (19 voters in the Democratic primary, 12 voters in the Republican primary, this actually seems like a statistical anomaly, but over the next few days, more Republicans will start to vote no doubt)

Cottle County is ancestrally Democratic. In 2006, 324 voters voted in the D primary, just 2 in the GOP primary. In 2010, it was 356-0 (no GOP primary held in the county). Most voters vote in the GOP primary now, but there's probably some local race that's still decided in the Democratic primary that is causing a lot of voters to pick Democratic ballots.

That's actually pretty interesting to hear, especially in the middle of the great plains. Wonder how that came came be

Also it looks like it still holds on to a bit of that residual history, at least for a few more years.

[Death of a Salesman]

Holy Harris County!

At the same time in the 2020 cycle of early voting, Harris County Republicans initially started out with a significant lead as well, which Democrats eventually cut as early voting progressed. In fact, the Harris County vote share compared to the same day of voting two years ago is extremely similar:

February 17, 2020: 10,541 Democrats; 11,678 Republicans - (52.56% R, 47.44% D)
February 15, 2022: 11,540 Democrats; 12,834 Republicans - (52.65% R, 47.35% D)

An extreme similar pattern is playing out in neighboring Fort Bend County:

February 17, 2020: 1,160 Democrats; 1,216 Republicans - (51.18% R, 48.82% D)
February 15, 2022: 2,917 Democrats; 3,233 Republicans - (52.57% R, 47.43% D)

Statewide, Republicans are doing much better this cycle, particularly in Tarrant and Collin Counties. In fact, the Democrats had the lead statewide at this time two years ago, but with a consistently much smaller turnout back then. Voting in-person was not available for early voting for the first few days of the 2020 primaries.

Harris and Fort Bend Counties break the statewide trend quite spectacularly.

Wonder what the deal is with those two random rural counties where Democrats are leading.

Bosque County - Population 18,235 (164 voters in the Republican primary, 20 voters in the Democratic primary, it's a slip of the hand, the map has been corrected)

Cottle County - Population 1,380 (19 voters in the Democratic primary, 12 voters in the Republican primary, this actually seems like a statistical anomaly, but over the next few days, more Republicans will start to vote no doubt)

Cottle County is ancestrally Democratic. In 2006, 324 voters voted in the D primary, just 2 in the GOP primary. In 2010, it was 356-0 (no GOP primary held in the county). Most voters vote in the GOP primary now, but there's probably some local race that's still decided in the Democratic primary that is causing a lot of voters to pick Democratic ballots.

That's actually pretty interesting to hear, especially in the middle of the great plains. Wonder how that came came be

Also it looks like it still holds on to a bit of that residual history, at least for a few more years.

It was settled by Confederate veterans in the 1800s.

[Real Texan Politics]

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 15

Image Link

238,065 Texans have voted so far, 1.39% of registered Texan voters.

93,553 (39.30%) voted in the Democratic Primary
144,512 (60.70%) voted in the Republican Primary

Oh yea the RGV is TOTALLY gonna swing dem!!!!1!!!1!!

Not surprising with the low turnout though, especially when Beto is practically running unopposed and Abbott's primary opponents seem to be online candidates, even with Huffines signs everywhere.

As usual though, I imagine more republicans will vote in person on election day.

[Pink Panther]

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 15

Image Link

238,065 Texans have voted so far, 1.39% of registered Texan voters.

93,553 (39.30%) voted in the Democratic Primary
144,512 (60.70%) voted in the Republican Primary

Oh yea the RGV is TOTALLY gonna swing dem!!!!1!!!1!!

Not surprising with the low turnout though, especially when Beto is practically running unopposed and Abbott's primary opponents seem to be online candidates, even with Huffines signs everywhere.

As usual though, I imagine more republicans will vote in person on election day.

Considering that I live in a state that borders Texas, maybe I should cross state lines to vote.😈 Anyways, even though this is extremely unlikely, what would your reaction be if Abbott was successfully primaried?

[_.]

-FEB 15 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 16

Image Link

353,507 Texans have voted so far, 2.06% of registered Texan voters.

134,564 (38.07%) voted in the Democratic Primary
218,943 (61.93%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Democrats: Galveston, Uvalde
To Republicans: Hays, Nueces, Jefferson

[Unelectable Bystander]

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 15

Image Link

238,065 Texans have voted so far, 1.39% of registered Texan voters.

93,553 (39.30%) voted in the Democratic Primary
144,512 (60.70%) voted in the Republican Primary

Oh yea the RGV is TOTALLY gonna swing dem!!!!1!!!1!!

Not surprising with the low turnout though, especially when Beto is practically running unopposed and Abbott's primary opponents seem to be online candidates, even with Huffines signs everywhere.

As usual though, I imagine more republicans will vote in person on election day.

Is Abbott coming for the RGV? I can’t tell margins

[ElectionsGuy]

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 15

Image Link

238,065 Texans have voted so far, 1.39% of registered Texan voters.

93,553 (39.30%) voted in the Democratic Primary
144,512 (60.70%) voted in the Republican Primary

Oh yea the RGV is TOTALLY gonna swing dem!!!!1!!!1!!

Not surprising with the low turnout though, especially when Beto is practically running unopposed and Abbott's primary opponents seem to be online candidates, even with Huffines signs everywhere.

As usual though, I imagine more republicans will vote in person on election day.

Primary vote by party always lags behind general election voting patterns. I would be shocked if any of those deep RGV counties are less than 70% Dem primary. If not, that's very bad for them.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

-FEB 15 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 16

Image Link

353,507 Texans have voted so far, 2.06% of registered Texan voters.

134,564 (38.07%) voted in the Democratic Primary
218,943 (61.93%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Democrats: Galveston, Uvalde
To Republicans: Hays, Nueces, Jefferson

That is already a sign for much larger turnout in the Republican primary than 2018. Already a seventh of the amount of voters in the 2018 Republican party have voted in this primary.

[Unelectable Bystander]

-FEB 15 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 16

Image Link

353,507 Texans have voted so far, 2.06% of registered Texan voters.

134,564 (38.07%) voted in the Democratic Primary
218,943 (61.93%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Democrats: Galveston, Uvalde
To Republicans: Hays, Nueces, Jefferson

That is already a sign for much larger turnout in the Republican primary than 2018. Already a seventh of the amount of voters in the 2018 Republican party have voted in this primary.

Any idea if there’s any documented correlation between GE and primary preferences?

[Duke of York]

-FEB 15 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 16

Image Link

353,507 Texans have voted so far, 2.06% of registered Texan voters.

134,564 (38.07%) voted in the Democratic Primary
218,943 (61.93%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Democrats: Galveston, Uvalde
To Republicans: Hays, Nueces, Jefferson

That is already a sign for much larger turnout in the Republican primary than 2018. Already a seventh of the amount of voters in the 2018 Republican party have voted in this primary.

Any idea if there’s any documented correlation between GE and primary preferences?

There isn't one. primary turnout does not predict winners.

[Unelectable Bystander]

-FEB 15 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 16

Image Link

353,507 Texans have voted so far, 2.06% of registered Texan voters.

134,564 (38.07%) voted in the Democratic Primary
218,943 (61.93%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Democrats: Galveston, Uvalde
To Republicans: Hays, Nueces, Jefferson

That is already a sign for much larger turnout in the Republican primary than 2018. Already a seventh of the amount of voters in the 2018 Republican party have voted in this primary.

Any idea if there’s any documented correlation between GE and primary preferences?

There isn't one. primary turnout does not predict winners.

Hmm but do you know if laser eye primary turnout predicts winners?

[Real Texan Politics]

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 15

Image Link

238,065 Texans have voted so far, 1.39% of registered Texan voters.

93,553 (39.30%) voted in the Democratic Primary
144,512 (60.70%) voted in the Republican Primary

Oh yea the RGV is TOTALLY gonna swing dem!!!!1!!!1!!

Not surprising with the low turnout though, especially when Beto is practically running unopposed and Abbott's primary opponents seem to be online candidates, even with Huffines signs everywhere.

As usual though, I imagine more republicans will vote in person on election day.

Considering that I live in a state that borders Texas, maybe I should cross state lines to vote.😈 Anyways, even though this is extremely unlikely, what would your reaction be if Abbott was successfully primaried?

Would be surprised but very delighted about it if it’s Huffines who becomes the nominee.

[_.]

-FEB 16 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 17

Image Link

470,699 Texans have voted so far, 2.74% of registered Texan voters.

176,635 (37.53%) voted in the Democratic Primary
294,064 (62.47%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Republicans: Galveston, Cottle

[ElectionsGuy]

Both of these are the Senate primary turnouts recently. The governor primaries weren't much different in 2018.

2018: 1.55 million R, 1.04 million D = approx. 2.6 million
2020: 1.93 million R, 1.87 million D = approx. 3.8 million

About 4.1 million turned out total for the presidential primaries, Democrats slightly outnumbering Republicans (not surprising with a contested Dem primary but largely unopposed Republican one) 2.09 million to 2.02 million.

If turnout is over 3 million for this primary, the "2022 is going to be low turnout" hypothesis will take another large hit. The 2021 elections have already done damage to it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really like Beto O hope he wins, he isn't Valdez like ABBOTT eqn against in 2018

[MARGINS6729]

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 15

Image Link

238,065 Texans have voted so far, 1.39% of registered Texan voters.

93,553 (39.30%) voted in the Democratic Primary
144,512 (60.70%) voted in the Republican Primary

Oh yea the RGV is TOTALLY gonna swing dem!!!!1!!!1!!

Not surprising with the low turnout though, especially when Beto is practically running unopposed and Abbott's primary opponents seem to be online candidates, even with Huffines signs everywhere.

As usual though, I imagine more republicans will vote in person on election day.

This is an interesting article that seems to go against the idea of looking at primary turnout as a general election indicator in Texas. It also says that election day voting is lower in the general election which surprises me. https://www.texastribune.org/2022/02/14/texas-primary-voting-turnout/

[_.]

-FEB 17 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 18

Image Link

609,768 Texans have voted so far, 3.55% of registered Texan voters.

225,022 (36.90%) voted in the Democratic Primary
384,746 (63.10%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Republicans: Presidio

[Real Texan Politics]

From republican activist Scott Presler
https://twitter.com/scottpresler/status/1495222004584263681?s=21

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

From republican activist Scott Presler
https://twitter.com/scottpresler/status/1495222004584263681?s=21

You guys are beating us because the D don't have a primar, Beto is expected to win overwhelming the primary and there is some risk of Abbott losing in the primary that's doesn't mean a whole lot this is wave insurance, we don't have a Senate race the real race is FL when Crist goes up against DeSantis we have a Senate race in FL and DeSantis isn't winning by ten points , Trump overperformed in Miami Dade Crist is gonna win Miami Dade by 25 pts

[_.]

-FEB 18 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 19

Image Link

693,718 Texans have voted so far, 4.04% of registered Texan voters.

261,969 (37.76%) voted in the Democratic Primary
431,749 (62.24%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

None