Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean/Likely R.

The only Texas Democrat that can win is Henry Cuellar. He fits the state's ideology. He is a moderate Democrat.

Texas is not leftwing. Even Texas Democrats are tough on immigration.

Six pts isn't R state Beto like Demings and Ryan and Crist and Beasley are wave insurance seats of course it's Lean R now but what happens when BBB/BINF PERFORMS , DS CANT AFFORD TO LOSE, THEY LOST 1000 STATE LEGISLATURE STS DURING OBAMA ADMINISTRATION

DONT UNDERESTIMATE BIDEN, RS HAVE DONE THIS IN THE PAST Palin walked into the VEEP DEBATE IN 2008 THINKING SHE WOULD WALK OVER BIDEN SHE LOST

THIS IS THE Same BIDEN THAT HELPED OBAMA WIN 376 EC VOTES 2008/12

[Real Texan Politics]

Obviously I expect Abbott to win, but I'm conflicted about the margin.

On one hand, the national environment is likely to be much better for the GOP compared to 2018 and O'Rourke, despite being well-known and well-funded compared to Valdez, has a lot of liabilities.

But at the same time, it seems like Abbott's popularity has really declined this year. So it's hard to say exactly what happens.

As I've said before, Beto's star power in Texas politics will almost certainly make him a much more energetic dem candidate than Valdez, and him almost beating Cruz could convince a lot of dems that he'll do the same to Abbott (or even beat him entirely).

But while Beto will very likely out-perform Valdez on just about every metric, funding, energy, polling, general election results, you name it, and while Abbott is much more polarizing and less popular than he was in 2018, it's still a long shot for Beto to even become governor, and that's not to mention 2022 is set to be a pretty strong red wave year. Just as Abbott has become more polarizing, so has Beto.

Right now I'm standing by my R+9-10 prediction, give or take a couple depending on circumstances that occur between now and November 8, 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto is only down six pts and so are Crist and Demings it's not an R plus 10 state HEGAR only lost by six pts

[Coolface’s actual roommate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1468641780493082625

[Roll Roons]

These Lincoln Project types are just such a joke, example god knows what.

[Real Texan Politics]

These Lincoln Project types are just such a joke, example god knows what.

I could see Kinzinger switching parties and running for something as like a “I didn’t leave the GOP, the GOP left me” kinda candidate like Dowd, especially considering how Kinzinger’s been voting lately.

[MargieCat]

https://twitter.com/statesman/status/1468679311796600832

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto has the nomination obviously, but he has an uphill climb, I like Beto abd if Biden polls improve he can get some momentum or Crist in FL

I seriously doubt Abbott is up by 15 pts

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/statesman/status/1468679311796600832

Beto not good enough for her?

Oh who am I kidding, she's gonna raise an embarrassingly low amount of money and lose the primary to Beto by a massive landslide. Probably won't even crack 10,000 votes, and neither will Deidre Gilbert.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott isn't winning bye 15 and DeSantis isn't winning bye 10 in a 304 map scenario and IPSOS has it 48% Biden lost TX bye 6 and FL bye 3 pts

[MargieCat]

https://twitter.com/statesman/status/1468679311796600832

Beto not good enough for her?

Oh who am I kidding, she's gonna raise an embarrassingly low amount of money and lose the primary to Beto by a massive landslide. Probably won't even crack 10,000 votes, and neither will Deidre Gilbert.

Deirdre is not even running for the Democratic nomination anymore.

She is running as an independent.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/statesman/status/1468679311796600832

Beto not good enough for her?

Oh who am I kidding, she's gonna raise an embarrassingly low amount of money and lose the primary to Beto by a massive landslide. Probably won't even crack 10,000 votes, and neither will Deidre Gilbert.

Deirdre is not even running for the Democratic nomination anymore.

She is running as an independent.

lol she had no chance anyways and still has no shot

[MargieCat]

Joy should have entered the race before Beto, if she truly wanted the nomination.

Beto would have probably gotten the state party behind her, as he was pretty hesitant to declare and there was a lot of pressure placed on him to enter. No one else wanted to be a sacrificial lamb.

[John Dule]

Joy Diaz smiles like the Thermians from Galaxy Quest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden failures to visit the Border is hurting him in TX and FL he is in the pocket of immigration activists

[MargieCat]

Just learned Chad Prather did not file his candidacy, meaning he's out of the race. Who is he more likely to endorse: West or Huffines?

He did file.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Border Crisis and Greg Abbott building his own wall it's safe R, Biden won't restart the wall, this isn't a oil issue it's an immigration issue

[Real Texan Politics]

Huffines seems to be very good at his billboard game. Saw several on I-45 between Houston and Dallas a few days ago, several more on Highway 59 between Houston and Lufkin that I saw last month, and there’s also several I saw in Houston, mostly along major highways. Not sure how much it’ll help him in the end though?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto won't win because Biden stopped building the Wall and Greg Abbott said Beto is to the left of Biden on the Border, Greg Abbott is doing a great job Beto will cut it to 55/45 and lose not bye 15 but 10

Latinos and liberal whites are for amnesty there are conservative blacks moreso in Deep South that are middle class that are willing to vote for Abbott Blks are against amnesty especially in a Pandemic

[NewYorkExpress]

In the forty-six days since entering the race, Beto O'Rourke has apparently raised more than $7.2 million.

Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) pulled in more than $7.2 million for his bid for Texas governor in the six weeks since launching his campaign.

He raised more than a quarter of that money — about $2 million — in the 24-hour period after announcing his plans to seek the Democratic nomination to take on Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in 2022. O’Rourke’s latest fundraising total spans the period from Nov. 15 to Dec. 31.

The 46-day fundraising haul is a record for a Democratic candidate in Texas. No Democratic campaign in the state’s history has raised so much in the opening days of a race, O’Rourke’s team said.


The money came from more than 115,600 contributions, the campaign said, and 80 percent of the total was raised from online donations.

[Real Texan Politics]

In the forty-six days since entering the race, Beto O'Rourke has apparently raised more than $7.2 million.

Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) pulled in more than $7.2 million for his bid for Texas governor in the six weeks since launching his campaign.

He raised more than a quarter of that money — about $2 million — in the 24-hour period after announcing his plans to seek the Democratic nomination to take on Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in 2022. O’Rourke’s latest fundraising total spans the period from Nov. 15 to Dec. 31.

The 46-day fundraising haul is a record for a Democratic candidate in Texas. No Democratic campaign in the state’s history has raised so much in the opening days of a race, O’Rourke’s team said.


The money came from more than 115,600 contributions, the campaign said, and 80 percent of the total was raised from online donations.

Even more than Ann Richards, however statewide elections have become increasingly nationalized in recent years, so I imagine quite a bit of the money came from out of state.

On the contrary, Abbott has raised over 18 million in the past 6 months, and his challengers have raised quite a bit as well (Huffines in particular has raised 12 million so far, more than the other challengers).

[GregTheGreat657]

According to polling, Abbott has been surpassed by Allan West

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good if Allen West is the Nominee Beto wins

[hurricanehink]

Any West v O’Rourke polls?

[Canis]

According to polling, Abbott has been surpassed by Allan West

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling

All the polls showing West Ahead or close to Abbott were internals conducted by the west campaign with no rating with 538 so id take it with a major grain of salt. The last independent poll of the primary had west at 6%